Clinician Perception of Likelihood of Death in the Next Year is Associated with 1-Year Mortality and Hospice Use among Older Adults Receiving Home Health Care.

Background: Given the complex care needs of older adults receiving home health care (HHC), it is important for HHC clinicians to identify those with limited prognosis who may benefit from a transition to hospice care. Objectives: To assess the association between HHC clinician-identified likelihood of death and (1) 1-year mortality, and (2) hospice use. Methods: Prospective cohort study from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) waves 2011-2018, linked to the Outcomes and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) HHC assessment and Medicare data among 915 community-dwelling NHATS respondents. HHC clinician-identified likelihood of death/decline was determined using OASIS item M1034. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between clinician-identified likelihood of death/decline and 1-year mortality and hospice use. Results: HHC clinicians identified 42% of the sample as at increased risk of decline or death. One year mortality was 22.3% (n = 548), and 15.88% (n = 303) used hospice within 12 months of HHC. HHC clinician-perceived likelihood of death/decline was associated with greater odds of 1-year mortality (odds ratio [OR], 6.57; confidence interval (95% CI), 2.56-16.90) and was associated with greater likelihood of hospice use (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.00-2.62). Conclusion: HHC clinician perception of patients' risk of death or decline is associated with 1-year mortality. A better understanding of HHC patients at high risk for mortality can facilitate improved care planning and identification of homebound older adults who may benefit from hospice.