Using Exogenous Social Media Exposure Measures to Assess the Effects of Smokeless Tobacco-Related Social Media Content on Smokeless Tobacco Sales in the United States

Introduction: Prior research on the effects of social media promotion of tobacco products has predominantly relied on survey-based self-report measures of marketing exposure, which potentially introduce endogeneity, recall, and selection biases. New approaches can enhance measurement and help better understand the effects of exposure to tobacco-related messages in a dynamic social media marketing environment. We used geolocation-specific tweet rate as an exogenous indicator of exposure to smokeless tobacco (ST)-related content and employed this measure to examine the influence of social media marketing on ST sales. Aims and Methods: Autoregressive error models were used to analyze the association between the ST-relevant tweet rate (aggregated by 4-week period from February 12, 2017 to June 26, 2021 and scaled by population density) and logarithmic ST unit sales across time by product type (newer, snus, conventional) in the United States, accounting for autocorrelated errors. Interrupted time series approach was used to control for policy change effects. Results: ST product category-related tweet rates were associated with ST unit sales of newer and conventional products, controlling for price, relevant policy events, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. On average, 100-unit increase in the number of newer ST-related tweets was associated with 14% increase in unit sales (RR = 1.14; p = .01); 100-unit increase in conventional ST tweets was associated with similar to 1% increase in unit sales (p = .04). Average price was negatively associated with the unit sales. Conclusions: Study findings reveal that ST social media tweet rate was related to increased ST consumption and illustrate the utility of exogenous measures in conceptualizing and assessing effects in the complex media environment. Implications: Tobacco control initiatives should include efforts to monitor the role of social media in promoting tobacco use. Surveillance of social media platforms is critical to monitor emerging tobacco product-related marketing strategies and promotional content reach. Exogenous measures of potential exposure to social media messages can supplement survey data to study media effects on tobacco consumption.