3D basin modeling of the Hils Syncline, Germany: reconstruction of burial and thermal history and implications for petrophysical properties of potential Mesozoic shale host rocks for nuclear waste storage

Jurassic sedimentary sequences suitable for nuclear waste storage in northern Germany consist of organic-lean claystone and were uplifted to < 100 m depth in the Hils Syncline area (southern Lower Saxony Basin). This Hils Syncline, showcasing a northwestward increase in thermal maturity, facilitates the study of shale petrophysical properties influenced by burial history. This study introduces a 3D-thermally calibrated numerical model of the Hils Syncline area to analyze its geodynamic evolution and maturity variations. It provides new vitrinite reflectance and sonic velocity data for modeling calibration and erosion estimation. The Hils Syncline area has undergone continuous subsidence, interrupted by a Cretaceous uplift documented by an erosional unconformity. During the latest Early Cretaceous, Jurassic rocks underwent maximum burial reaching up to several thousand meters depth and temperatures up to 160 °C in the northwest. The Late Cretaceous inversion caused stronger erosion towards the northwest removing up to 3300 m of sediment compared to about 1300 m in the south, according to vitrinite reflectance-based estimations. Numerical modeling results along the study area indicate decreasing porosity and permeability northwestward with increasing thermal maturity. Porosity and vertical permeability decreased to 5–14% and 2.8 × 10 –23 to 1.5 × 10 –19 m 2 [1 mD = 10 −15 m 2 ], respectively, while vertical thermal conductivity increased to 1.30–2.12 (W/m/K). These trends of porosity/permeability and thermal conductivity with burial align with sonic velocity and published experimental porosity data, except for the thermally most mature region (Haddessen). This anomaly is tentatively attributed here to localized overpressure generation in the Posidonia Shale during maximum burial, affecting both the underlying Pliensbachian and overlying Doggerian units. Graphical abstract 3D numerical model of the Hils Syncline and surrounding area revealing that a northwestward increase in maximum burial resulted in higher temperatures and varying maturity levels. While most locations align well with calibration data (i.e. measured vitrinite reflectance and porosity), discrepancies arise in the Haddessen/Bensen area. The mismatch between porosity, vitrinite reflectance, and sonic velocity response indicates local overpressure in the northernmost region mainly during the Cretaceous. It was likely caused by gas generation in the Posidonia Shale affecting nearby Lower and Middle Jurassic units.