Exploring the greenhouse gas emissions inventory and driving mechanisms of municipal solid waste in China

Municipal solid waste (MSW), as an important sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is the key to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking goals. In this study, we conducted the GHG emission inventory within MSW sector of 323 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020. The results revealed that GHG emissions were 78.58 Mt. in 2011, reaching a peak of 94.01 Mt. in 2017. As a consequence of the transition in MSW disposal methods toward incineration, emissions decreased to 71.32 Mt. in 2020. The spatial distribution of emissions exhibited a trend of being higher in the east and lower in the west. The declining trend in emission intensity (per GDP and per capita) indicated the success of optimization in MSW management. This study employed socio-economic indicators and the average annual change in GHG emissions to cluster cities using K-means analysis. Furthermore, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was utilized to investigate the driving mechanisms of emissions in the MSW sector at both national and regional levels. The economic level emerged as the dominant contributor to GHG emissions, with 6.16Mt. Conversely, MSW treatment structure played the most significant role in emission reduction,with 5.95 Mt. Moreover, variations in drivers among city clusters were primarily attributed to differences in MSW treatment intensity and treatment structure.