Prediction of body mass index and skeletal maturity for early menarche risk at menarche onset: a cross-sectional study of Chinese girls

Background This study aimed to assess the predictive value of body mass index (BMI) and skeletal maturity for the occurrence of early menarche in Chinese girls. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on 785 girls aged 8.1-14.6 years who visited our hospital within 3 months of menarche onset. Early menarche was defined as menarche age (MA) <10 years. Skeletal maturity was classified based on the difference between bone age (BA) and chronological age (CA), termed BA-CA; advanced BA was defined as BA-CA>2 years. Results The average MA was 10.7 (SD: 1.1) years, with a prevalence of early menarche of 23.3%. BA exhibited relative stability compared with MA, with an average of 12.8 (SD: 0.5) years at menarche onset. At menarche onset, the average height, weight and BMI were 149.1 (SD: 5.1) cm, 43.3 (SD: 7.2) kg and 19.4 (SD: 2.8) kg/m(2), respectively. Logistic regression analyses indicated that every 1-year increment in BA-CA was independently associated with a 18.90-fold higher risk of early menarche (95% CI 11.77 to 30.32), respectively, and remained statistically significant even after adjusting for height or mid-parental height. Furthermore, the prediction of BA-CA for early menarche demonstrated a dose-dependent pattern across BMI categories, with the greatest risk observed in normal-weight girls, the lowest risk in obese girls and an intermediate risk in overweight girls at the same degree of BA advancement. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence supporting the significant contributions of BMI and skeletal maturity in predicting early menarche among Chinese girls at menarche onset. Additionally, the results suggest a dose-dependent relationship between skeletal maturity and BMI categories, with normal-weight girls displaying a higher risk of early menarche compared to overweight and obese girls with the same degree of BA advancement.