The driving factors and mitigation strategy of CO2 emissions from China's passenger vehicle sector towards carbon neutrality

Passenger vehicles have significant environmental concerns, accounting for approximately 52% of total CO2 emissions in the transportation sector over well to wheel period. Understanding its historical emission trends and drivers is crucial for future carbon reduction interventions. Here, an integrated analytical framework is developed, consisting of the vehicle fleet-based fuel cycle carbon emissions accounting model, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI) and scenario-based prediction method. The obtained results of case study in China show that: i) The annual CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles consistently increased from 228.4 Mt in 2012 to 459.9 Mt in 2022, primarily driven by income per capita and passenger vehicle ownership. ii) The reduction in vehicle fuel intensity and changes in market structure contributed to decreases in emissions of 41.6 Mt and 1.8 Mt, respectively. Moreover, the emission coefficient effect has more significant impacts in new energy vehicles (NEVs), leading to a reduction of 1.0 Mt. iii) By optimizing the market structure, 3425.8 Mt CO2 emissions could be mitigated by 2060, yielding the lowest aggregate emissions among all emission reduction strategies. iv) The adoption of advanced power technology will continue to contribute to carbon reduction till 2045. The effectiveness of the emission coefficient reduction strategy will be strengthened after 2045, leading to the lowest annual CO2 emissions of 26.0 Mt by 2060. Long-term emission curtailment will necessitate technological innovation and widespread adoption of new energy vehicles and clean electricity.