Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy

Global attention is being given to renewable energy solutions as they are seen as crucial to secure decarbonization efforts. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energies are considered leading technologies for the energy transition, and Portugal is following suit with the ratification of the national decarbonization plan in 2019, recognizing these technologies as the primary systems to decarbonize the electric generation sector, jointly achieving 39 GW to be deployed up to 2050. This work sheds light on the quantity of raw materials needed to accomplish the Portuguese decarbonization plan by using the material intensity of different technologies and several scenarios of technological mixes for the solar and wind parks. Coupling this assessment with forecast modeling of metal production allows to assess possible difficulties in technology implementation. Two sets of materials are identified, with high or low demand variability across scenarios, the first related to specific types of technologies and the second transversal to a broad range of technologies. It is expected for solar PV and onshore wind to require between 3.1 x 106 and 4.3 x 106 tonnes of concrete and up to 95 tonnes of dysprosium by 2050. Steel demand is anticipated to increase between 300 and 400% during this decade compared to the baseline decade of the 2010s; the decade of 2030-2040 has the highest demand for materials. The metals with higher depletion rates and requiring urgent systematic monitoring are Bi, Cr, In, Li, Mo, Ni, and Zn. Although not making the deployment of any technology impossible, the availability of some metals will hinder the large-scale adoption of some technologies. The demand for metals will continue to increase in the upcoming decades, so it is imperative to invest in research for (i) technological advances to reduce the material intensity in solar PV and wind technologies and (ii) geological knowledge improvements potentially resulting in new mineral resources discoveries, also expanding the known reserves needed to mitigate the foreseen supply risks.