Navigating Time: A Comparative Analysis of Senior Tourists' Intentions and Length of Stay in Italy Pre-, during, and Post-COVID-19

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic led to a rapid global health crisis, which shocked the tourism industry by closing borders and reducing tourism demand. This study aims to analyze the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on senior Italian tourism. If, on the one hand, seniors represent, from a tourism perspective, one of the most promising markets for the near future; on the other hand, they are the population that has most suffered the consequences of the pandemic event. Drawing on national statistical data, this study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the holiday intentions and length of stay of senior Italian tourists in Italy. The proposed methodological approach evaluates both travel intentions and length of stay by comparing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. It breaks down the decision-making process into two phases (to go on holiday or not, and length of stay) and is based on the estimation of a probit model with sample selection, which provides a more accurate approach to addressing the complex decision-making dynamics surrounding travel during pandemic periods, offering greater precision in modeling the factors influencing travel intention and length of stay. The results show a strong correlation between the decision to travel and the length of stay in the period before the pandemic. However, during the post-pandemic period there is a change in dynamics, where other factors gain importance in determining the length of stay regardless of the decision to travel.