Correlates of protection and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections 1 year after third dose vaccination

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and the waning of immunity raise concerns about vaccine effectiveness and protection against COVID-19. While antibody response has been shown to correlate with the risk of infection with the original variant and earlier variants of concern, the effectiveness of antibody-mediated protection against Omicron and the factors associated with protection remain uncertain. We evaluated antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) antigens from Wuhan and variants of concern by Luminex and their role in preventing breakthrough infections 1 year after a third dose of mRNA vaccination, in a cohort of health care workers followed since the pandemic onset in Spain (N = 393). Data were analyzed in relation to COVID-19 history, demographic factors, comorbidities, vaccine doses, brand, and adverse events. Higher levels of anti-S IgG and IgA to Wuhan, Delta, and Omicron were associated with protection against vaccine breakthroughs (IgG against Omicron S antigen HR, 0.06, 95