Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries

Abstract To support discussions around the feasibility of the energy transition, we present probabilistic projections of the expected diffusion of solar photovoltaics, wind power, biogases, heat pumps and low-carbon passenger vehicles in 39 European countries for 2023-2050 under current contextual conditions. We then compare the projected capacities against those required for reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We create our projections using 72 different variants of diffusion models that we test using hindcasting (2012-2022) and weigh according to their performance. We find that the projected diffusion of all granular technologies leads to an uneven distribution of capacities across Europe. Most countries will likely reach required numbers of battery electric vehicles, but with high uncertainty. Most countries are unlikely to reach the required capacities of wind power and biogases with high confidence. Probabilities and confidence levels of reaching required capacities of solar photovoltaics and heat pumps vary the most between countries.