Identification of Suitable Mangrove Distribution Areas and Estimation of Carbon Stocks for Mangrove Protection and Restoration Action Plan in China

Mangrove forests are significant blue carbon pools on the Earth with strong carbon sequestration capacity and play an important role in combating climate change. To improve the capacity of regional carbon sinks, China has implemented a Special Action Plan for Mangrove Protection and Restoration (2020-2025). In this context, based on the MaxEnt model, this study analyzed the important environmental factors affecting the distribution of mangrove forests, combined with the planning objectives and carbon density parameters of different regions; assessed the habitat suitability areas of China's mangrove forests; and predicted their future carbon stock potential. The results showed the following: (1) Elevation was the most important factor affecting the overall distribution of mangrove forests in China, and the optimal elevation of mangrove distribution was 0.52 m. (2) The most suitable areas of mangrove forests in China were mainly distributed in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, which had great potential for carbon stock. Danzhou Bay and Hongpai Harbor in Hainan, Lianzhou Bay in Guangxi, and the Huangmao Sea in Guangdong are potential areas for habitat suitability but are not yet under high levels of protection. (3) Achieving the goals of this action plan was expected to increase carbon stocks by 4.13 Tg C. Other suitable areas not included in this plan could still increase carbon stocks by 7.99 Tg C in the long term. The study could provide a scientific basis for siting mangrove restoration areas and developing efficient management policies.