Ecological niche modelling guided chemotypic analysis of Ageratum conyzoides L. from varied geography of India

Ageratum conyzoides L., recognized globally as a noxious weed, holds significant value in traditional medicine, particularly in treating cuts, wounds, and tick infestations. This study focuses on identifying specific germplasms of this plant, rich in therapeutically valuable metabolites, across various phytogeographical zones in India. Using the Reverse Phase High-Performance Liquid Chromatography with Photodiode Array Detection (RP-HPLC-PDA) method, we analyzed 110 samples to quantify five key bioactive markers: Precocene-I (PRC-I), Coumarin (CM), Caryophyllene (CAR), Caryophyllene Oxide (CAO), and Humulene (HUM). Our findings revealed distinct geographical variations in these compounds. The highest concentrations of PRC-I (7.86±1.36 %) was found in sample NAC-12, CM (1.50±0.46 %) and HUM (0.0099±0.0004 %) in NAC-104, while CAR (6.33±0.87 %) and CAO (6.23±0.18 %) were predominant in NAC-01 and NAC-02, respectively. Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) was used to predict the climatic suitability of regions for high yield of these metabolites. The ENM results showed that annual precipitation (Bio 12), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19) and minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio 6) were the principal climatic factors influencing metabolite content. Geographically, the Indo-Gangetic plain, Indus plain, and Central India were identified as suitable for higher content of PRC-I, CAO, CAR, whereas the North Eastern region favoured high content of CM and HUM. This study underscores the importance of bioactive marker-based assessment in understanding chemotypic diversity and demonstrates the effective use of ENM in predicting optimal habitats for harvesting specific chemotypes. These insights pave the way for location-specific cultivation strategies and targeted procurement of metabolite-rich germplasms, contributing to sustainable sourcing and conservation efforts, as well as to the advancement of herbal product standardization and efficacy.