Promote the decarbonization pathways of eco-industrial parks by considering their CO2 emissions structures and characters

China has proposed the goals of a carbon peaking target in 2030 and a carbon neutrality target in 2060 to mitigate climate change. In China, Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are one of the platforms for achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. This study aims to investigate the future CO2 emissions reduction potential by evaluating two different types of national EIPs in China. Firstly, we constructed carbon emission inventories for EIP-N in Zhejiang Province and EIP-L in Shandong Province. Subsequently, leveraging these inventories, we developed an integrated model aimed at predicting the carbon emission peaks for both EIPs and discerning the main contributors. Secondly, we took EIP-N and EIP-L as examples and applied the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to establish three different scenarios for analyzing the future trends in carbon emissions. In a Business as usual (BAU) scenario (continue the current energy conservation and emission reduction policies), EIP-L can achieve carbon peaking, while the carbon emissions of EIP-N will continue to increase. In the Emissions control (EMC) scenario (considering the reduction of fossil fuels and the increased use of cleaner energy sources), EIP-N and EIP-L are projected to peak in 2029 and 2027, respectively. In the Reinforce mitigation (RFM) scenario (with fewer emissions from fuels and a higher share of clean energy generation), both EIPs are expected to achieve carbon peaking by 2025. Finally, we proposed the deep decarbonization of EIPs with different industrial characteristics. This study applied the LEAP model to the EIP scale, explored the paths of deep decarbonization development in different EIPs under the constraint of dual-carbon targets, providing a demonstration for China and other developing countries to achieve the goal of carbon capping in EIPs during rapid industrialization.