Navigating Bioenergy Horizons: A Critical Examination of Europe's Potential, with Belgium As a Case Study

Estimates of the energy potential of the different energy sources are essential for modelling energy systems. However, the potential of biomass is debatable due to the numerous dimensions and assumptions embedded. It is thus important to investigate further the final potential to understand their implications. Therefore, this study analyses European studies assessing biomass potential and proposes a critical discussion on the different results to converge to a realistic range of potentials for 2030. Biomass is divided into four categories: forestry products, agricultural residues, energy crops and other waste, each with sub-categories. Belgium is used as a case study to highlight the convergences and divergences of the studies. Having a national case study allows for more precise analyses through in-depth comparisons with national data and reports. The potential estimates are compared with the current production for each category in order to have a better view of the gap to be bridged. From these national perspectives, the European potential can be better apprehended. The results show that the realistic potentials for 2030 for Belgium and Europe are somewhat in the lower range of the estimates of the different studies: from 30 to 41 TWh and from 2000 to 2500 TWh, respectively. The forestry biomass is already well exploited with a slight potential increase, while the agricultural residues present the most significant potential increase. The realistic potential for energy crops in Belgium turned out to be close to the minimum estimates. Indeed, the implications of those crops are considerable regarding the agricultural structure and logistics. This article emphasises that no energy potential is neutral, as it involves a specific system in terms of agriculture, forestry or waste management, with broader social, economic or environmental implications. Consequently, using one estimate rather than another is not a trivial matter; it has an impact on the system being modelled from the outset.