Clinicopathological factors predict residual lymph node metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer with ypT0-2 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Purpose Residual lymph node metastases (RLNM) remained a great concern in the implementation of organ-preserving strategies and led to poor prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this study, we aimed to identify the clinicopathological factors correlated with RLNM in LARC patients with ypT0-2 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT).Methods We retrospectively analyzed 417 patients histologically diagnosed middle-low LARC after NCRT and total mesorectal excision (TME), whose pathological staging was ypT0-2. All patients received pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before NCRT. The radiation doses were 50-50.6 Gy for the planning gross tumor volume and 41.8-45 Gy for the planning target volume, respectively. A nomogram for predicting RLNM was constructed using a binary logistic regression. Nomogram performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).Results After surgery, 191 patients (45.8%) were ypT0, 43 patients (10.3%) were ypT1 and 183 patients (43.9%) were ypT2, and a total of 49 patients (11.8%) were found the presence of RLNM. Multivariable analyses identified MRI-defined mesorectal fascia (MRF)-positive, high-grade histopathology at biopsy, advanced ypT-category, and the presence of perineural invasion (PNI) as the predictive factors. The nomogram, incorporating all these predictors, showed good discrimination and calibration efficacy, with the areas under the ROC curve of 0.690 (95% CI: 0.610-0.771). Both DCA and CIC demonstrated that this nomogram has good clinical usefulness.Conclusion The nomogram model can predict RLNM in patients with ypT0-2 tumors. It can help select suitable patients for performing organ-preserving strategies after NCRT.