Impacts of meteorological conditions on the plummeting surface-reaching solar radiation over a sub-tropical station – Pune, India

The unprecedented rise of solar energy as a dominant power source is a remarkable feat, considering our historical struggle to establish its widespread adoption. However, the dynamics of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface are greatly influenced by meteorological conditions such as clouds, aerosols, and wind speed. This study investigates the detailed changes in surface-reaching solar radiation within the subtropical region Pune from 1993 to 2022. By employing analytical methodologies including linear regression, wavelet coherence, and quantitative analysis, our study reveals a compelling and alarming pattern of plummeting solar radiation over Pune (also known as solar dimming). The total drop is ∼1.04 Wm−2 year−1 (0.21 % year−1), with a more steep decline registered from 2018 to 2022, providing an astonishing rate of ∼6.01 Wm−2 year−1 (1.21 % year−1). Moreover, wavelet coherence transform revealed an antiphase coherence between solar radiation and both clouds and aerosols, suggesting their substantial influence over a longer timeframe. Extensive analysis utilizing observational data is conducted to find the contributing elements to the significant decline during 2018 to June 2022. Analysis of solar radiation statistics showed that clouds led to a substantial reduction of ∼30.18 % compared to conditions with clear-skies. Similarly, the aerosols have a comparable effect, reducing radiation by ∼17.75 % compared to days characterized by low or negligible aerosol loading for the same period. Furthermore, a through statistical analysis investigates a notable anticorrelation (ρ = −0.64) between wind speed and solar radiation. These findings underscore the imperative of incorporating climatic variables while studying solar dimming trends and devising sustainable renewable energy strategies to ensure the long-term viability of solar energy source.