Spatial Effects of Green Innovation and Carbon Emission Reduction in China: Mediating Role of Infrastructure and Informatization

Green innovation (GI) plays a vital role in mitigating urban carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fostering sustainable development in China. This study examines the impact of GI on CO2 emissions, underscoring its significance for environmental sustainability. The analysis of data from 253 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020 shows a transition in GI from a “multipoint” sporadic pattern to a “clustered” aggregation, indicative of significant polarization. Concurrently, a converging trend in the CO2 emissions kernel density curve reflects the initial success of carbon reduction initiatives, demonstrating a notable “high in the north and low in the south” spatial disparity. Critically, the findings reveal that GI induces significant spatial spillover effects, reducing CO2 emissions not only locally but also in adjacent areas. The mediation analysis reveals that the level of infrastructure development acts as a masking factor, suggesting that despite infrastructure expansion potentially escalating CO2 emissions, alignment with GI principles steers its environmental impact towards a positive direction. Additionally, informatization's modest mediating role suggests that its enhancement, driven by GI, further mitigates CO2 emissions through improved resource efficiency. These insights highlight the importance of integrating GI into urban policy frameworks, emphasizing its role in environmental management and CO2 emission reduction.