Zero-waste city pilot and urban green and low-carbon transformation: Quasi-experimental evidence from China

The zero-waste city pilot (ZWCP) policy in China is a city-level environmental regulation aimed at combating pollution and aligning with the country's climate goals. This study evaluates the policy's effectiveness in addressing climate change by treating its implementation as a “quasi-natural experiment” across 274 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2021. Using the DID and SDID models, it examines how ZWCP impacts cities' green and low-carbon transformation. The research indicates that ZWCP project significantly expedite this transformation by promoting green technology innovation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that ZWCP is beneficial to green and low-carbon transformation in eastern and central cities, small and medium cities, and resource-based cities. The study also detects spatial spillover effects in pilot areas, where better carbon emissions efficiency benefits other regions via geographic and economic links. This research offers empirical evidence and policy insights for China's development of zero-waste cities to promote green development and ecological civilization.