Information content of JWST spectra of WASP-39b

The era of James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission spectroscopy of exoplanetary atmospheres commenced with the study of the Saturn-mass gas giant WASP-39b as part of the Early Release Science (ERS) program. WASP-39b was observed using several different JWST instrument modes (NIRCam, NIRISS, NIRSpec G395H and NIRSpec PRISM) and the spectra were published in a series of papers by the ERS team. The current study examines the information content of these spectra measured using the different instrument modes, focusing on the complexity of the temperature-pressure profiles and number of chemical species warranted by the data. We examine if the molecules H2O CO CO2 K H2S CH4 and SO2 are detected in each of the instrument modes. Two Bayesian inference methods are used to perform atmospheric retrievals: the standard nested sampling method, as well as the supervised machine learning method of the random forest (trained on a model grid). For nested sampling, Bayesian model comparison is used as a guide to identify the set of models with the required complexity to explain the data. Generally, non-isothermal transit chords are needed to fit the transmission spectra of WASP-39b, although the complexity of the temperature-pressure profile required is mode-dependent. The minimal set of chemical species needed to fit a spectrum is mode-dependent as well, and also depends on whether grey or non-grey clouds are assumed. When a non-grey cloud model is used to fit the NIRSpec G395H spectrum, it generates a spectral continuum that compensates for the water opacity. The same compensation is absent when fitting the non-grey cloud model to the NIRSpec PRISM spectrum (which has broader wavelength coverage), suggesting that it is spurious. The interplay between the cloud spectral continuum and the water opacity determines if sulphur dioxide is needed to fit either spectrum. The inferred elemental abundances of carbon and oxygen and the carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratios are all mode- and model-dependent, and should be interpreted with caution. Bayesian model comparison does not always offer a clear path forward for favouring specific retrieval models (e.g. grey versus non-grey clouds) and thus for enabling unambiguous interpretations of exoplanet spectra.