Emergency policies are not enough to resolve Amazonia's fire crises

The fire crises in the Amazon continues to increase the risk of large-scale forest dieback, threatening regional biodiversity and global climate. This issue gained international attention in 2019 when fires in the Brazilian Amazon led to a fire ban imposition. Despite the uncertainty of its impact, the fire ban was reenacted in subsequent years. Here we assess the effectiveness of each fire ban by comparing observed fire counts with climate-driven predictions of fire for 2019-2021. While the 2019 ban likely reduced the number of fires to expected levels, it was largely ineffective in the years that followed. Four years later in 2023 under a different political dynamic, the Brazilian Amazon faced another fire crisis. Resolving this recurrent issue requires interventions that target the underlying causes of fire and extend beyond emergency measures, including long-term strategies focused on landscape management, public awareness and education, and engagement with local communities and stakeholders. The fire ban implemented during burning seasons in the Brazilian Amazon helped reduce the number of fires in 2019 but proved largely ineffective in 2020 and 2021, according to an analysis of observed fires activity and model simulations of expected fires in the absence of a ban over 2019-2021.