Duckling survival increased with availability of flooded wetland habitat and decreased with salinity concentrations in a brackish marsh

Abstract Waterfowl population recruitment is sensitive to duckling survival. We quantified predator types and survival rates for Anas platyrhynchos (Mallard) and Mareca strepera (Gadwall) ducklings in one of the largest brackish water marshes in western North America (Suisun Marsh, California) using 556 radio-tagged ducklings from 284 broods tracked during the 2016 to 2019 breeding seasons. Overall, 78% of ducklings died and 84% of mortalities occurred <7 days after hatch. After hatching in upland fields, survival was greater for broods that hatched closer to flooded wetlands; broods had a ≥75% chance of surviving the move from the nest to water when nests were located ≤140 m from the nearest wetland and ≤50% chance of surviving when nests were located ≥970 m from the nearest wetland. Predation accounted for 91% of mortalities and was attributed to mammals (27.6%), birds (22.0%), snakes (4.4%), and unknown predators (46.0%). Anas platyrhynchos survival to fledging (54 days) was only 3.2% and 0.9% during two drier years and 11.7% and 16.7% during two wetter years. Mareca strepera survival to fledging was 9.4% to 11.2% among years. Daily survival rates for ducklings generally increased with the amount of flooded wetland within 0.5 km (A. platyrhynchos) and 1.0 km (M. strepera) of the nest at hatch. Additionally, survival rates increased with duckling age and body mass at hatch for both species and decreased with hatch date for A. platyrhynchos but not M. strepera, which may be partially due to the earlier onset of A. platyrhynchos nesting. For ducklings that survived the initial move to water, survival rates were negatively correlated with salinity and this effect was more pronounced for younger ducklings. Anas platyrhynchos survival to 7 days post hatch decreased by 9.1% (wetter year) to 31.4% (drier year) when ducklings were in 12 ppt water (99th quantile of cumulative salinity concentrations experienced by ducklings) versus 0.5 ppt water. Mareca strepera survival to 7 days decreased by 7.4% when ducklings were in 12 ppt versus 0.5 ppt water. Our results suggest that maintaining a network of low salinity wetlands within 1 km of upland nesting sites would likely improve duckling survival rates, especially during the critical 7-day period after hatch.