Climate-Driven Stock Accounts of Inland Green-Blue Ecosystems: Coupling the Carbon and Water Cycles Via Reverse Engineering and Geodetectors

The critical role of inland Green-Blue Ecosystems (GBE) in delivering goods and services underscores the need to understand their relationships. This research investigates the impact of climate variables on GBE stock accounts by estimating Tree Cover Density (TCD) and Water & Wetness Probability Index (WWPI). Using supervised machine learning and factor analysis, we measured GBE extent and condition. Key predictors for Blue Ecosystems were topographic variables, while vegetation indices were crucial for Green Ecosystems. In 2018, 33% of the inland area was covered by forests, freshwater, and wetlands. Key climate-driven factors for forests included precipitation (0.65), aridity index (0.54), and evapotranspiration (0.44). For freshwater and wetlands, precipitation (0.69), aridity index (0.55), and elevation (0.42) were significant. This research enhances our understanding of how climate impacts GBE, influencing biomass density and water availability. It bridges socio-environmental science with engineering by integrating advanced modelling techniques, promoting ecosystem resilience and sustainability.