Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning-based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe's forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.
Spatial variables can be observed in many different forms, such as regularly sampled random fields (lattice data), point processes and randomly sampled spatial processes. Joint analysis of such collections of observations is clearly desirable, but complicated by the lack of an easily implementable analysis framework. We fill this gap by providing a multitaper analysis framework using coupled discrete and continuous data tapers, combined with the discrete Fourier transform for inference. Using this set of tools is important, as it forms the backbone for practical spectral analysis. In higher dimensions it is especially important not to be constrained to Cartesian product domains, and so we develop the methodology for spectral analysis using irregular domain data tapers and the tapered discrete Fourier transform. We discuss its fast implementation, as well as the asymptotic and large finite-domain properties. Estimators of partial association between different spatial processes are provided, as are principled methods to determine their significance, and we demonstrate their practical utility using a large-scale ecological dataset.
In 2023, more than half of olive harvests ( Olea europaea ) across Spain, Greece, and Türkiye were lost to drought. The same year late freeze destroyed 90% of the peach crop ( Prunus persica ) on the Georgia Piedmont and the apple crop ( Malus domestica ) in central New York, Vermont, and southern Quebec. Climate extremes now rank with the costliest threats to agriculture, but their role in forest recovery from diebacks that are happening globally is unknown for lack of tree fecundity estimates in forests. Tolerance of climate extremes could depend on past exposure but constrained by phylogenetic conservatism. We report a continental scale analysis of climate extremes and forest fecundity across North America and Europe showing that responses to late freeze and drought are happening now. Species differences are not explained by the traits typically included in ecological studies and they are weakly associated with phylogeny. Late freeze, that is, freezing temperatures that follow the onset of flower development in spring, is shown to be “normal” in North America, but not Europe, potentially explaining failed seed production due to delayed onset and the resultant shorter growing period by North American transplants dating back at least to the 18th century. Drought has thus far had the greatest impacts in dry forested regions, but here too, species differences are not explained by traditional trait values. If responses have been buffered from drought and late freeze by past exposure, acclimation and local adaptation prove inadequate as extremes intensify.
Land-use practices play a crucial role in addressing the most pressing threats to the well-being of present and future generations, namely, climate change and biodiversity loss. Our study employed a choice experiment (CE) method to delve into the preferences of Finnish citizens concerning policy measures aimed at mitigating climate change, as well as their associated outcomes. The investigation yielded three key findings. First, on average, respondents expressed a willingness to pay (WTP) for both the implementation of proposed policy measures and the subsequent outcomes. Second, there was notable heterogeneity in WTP among respondents, influenced by whether they resided in the capital region or elsewhere in the country. Third, to assess citizens' WTP for various policy combinations, we formulated alternative policy programs. These programs underscored the significance of forestry-related measures that not only address climate change but also yield positive biodiversity outcomes in shaping effective climate policies.
The circular bioeconomy, centred on the principles of “Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle”, is central to achieving the goals of the European Green Deal and the “Farm to Fork” strategy. The key approach, within this framework, is the valorisation of food processing side-streams through various processing technologies to produce fertilisers that, when applied to the soil, act as potential “soil improvers”. When applied to soil, these materials affect not only the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soil but also impact greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient leaching, and the levels of contaminants or pathogens. A systematic review of field studies conducted in European soils between 2014 and 2024 was performed with stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria, which allowed the identification of suitable articles in three independent steps. The main soil improvers derived from various agri-food side-streams were biochar, compost, and digestate. Their effects, along with the potential risks associated with their use in agricultural fields, were carefully evaluated and discussed. This review forms part of the DeliSoil project “Delivering safe, sustainable, tailored societally accepted soil improvers from circular food production for boosting soil health” funded under the European Union “A Soil Deal for Europe”. This systematic review showed that soil improvers enhance soil health by improving microbial diversity, organic matter, and water retention, and by boosting plant growth. However, potential risks require careful management, and long-term studies are needed to fully assess their environmental and agronomic impacts.
