This paper explores climate-friendly projects that could be part of the COVID-19 recovery while jump-starting the transition of the European basic materials industry. Findings from a literature review on technology options in advanced development stages for climate-friendly production, enhanced sorting, and recycling of steel, cement, aluminium, and plastics, are combined with insights from interviews with 31 European stakeholders in these sectors about the practical and economic feasibility of these technology options. Results indicate that with an estimated investment of 28.9 billion Euros, up to 20% of EU's basic materials could be produced through low-emission processes or additional recycling by 2025 with technologies that are commercially available or at pilot scale today. However, our stakeholder consultation also shows that in order to make these short-term investments viable, six main barriers need to be addressed, namely: (i) the lack of effective and predictable carbon pricing, (ii) the limited availability of affordable green electricity, (iii) the lack of a regulatory framework for circularity, (iv) low technology market readiness and funding, (v) the lack of infrastructure for hydrogen, CO2 and power, and (vi) the lack of demand for climate-friendly and recycled materials. Based on these insights, the paper proposes elements of a policy package that can create a framework favourable for investments in these technologies; these policies should ideally accompany the recovery package to give credibility to investors that the business case will last beyond the recovery period. Key policy insights Technologies for climate-friendly materials production, sorting and recycling can be supported as part of the recovery package but require an enabling policy framework. Combining continued free allocation with a Climate Contribution within the EU ETS can enhance economic viability of climate-friendly options. Project-based Carbon Contracts for Difference can eliminate carbon price uncertainty for climate-friendly processes. Auctions for publicly backed Contracts for Difference and Power Purchasing Agreements can guarantee price-stability of low-emission electricity. Green public procurement and public-private partnerships can provide infrastructure for hydrogen, CO2 and electricity while creating demand for climate-friendly materials. Revising regulations on product design and end-of-life emissions can improve sorting and recycling incentives.
This database contains national and global level modelling scenario results produced under the COP21:RIPPLES project https://www.cop21ripples.eu/ The data is also hosted in the IIASA RIPPLES Scenario Explorer https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/cop21ripples/#/login The National Determined Contributions (NDCs) provide important indications regarding the future GHG emissions and related policies, in relation to the international energy market, technological, economic, trade and financial context. This key information on the development trajectories of major economies is essential for EU policy development as it will determine the global context in which EU policies will evolve. Nevertheless, the NDCs adopt a medium-term horizon and do not provide all the required information to fully characterize the detailed energy system pathways that meet the Paris Agreement (PA) goals. NDCs therefore fall short of characterizing the global trajectories at a sufficiently granular and long-term perspective for informing EU policies. To close this knowledge gap, COP21:RIPPLES aims at analysing the underlying transformations required in the different sectors of the economy to meet the PA mitigation targets. To this purpose, COP21:RIPPLES uses existing scenarios as well as a number of new national and global scenarios. These new scenarios are not conceived themselves as an output of the project but rather as methodological tool to answer specific questions across different Work Packages. For description of the models and scenarios included in each Excel file, see the documentation "RIPPLES_ScenarioExplorer_Doc_v4.docx". For more information on these models and scenarios, see the COP21:RIPPLES Deliverables D2.6, D3.2 and D3.5.
In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport).
