Abstract Youth aspirations shape education, career and migration decisions, yet systematic evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa remains scarce. This paper addresses this gap by using data from the novel Youth Aspirations and Employment Module, developed under the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study and implemented through nationally representative High-Frequency Phone Surveys in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria during the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence shows that youth aspirations are gender-age-income sensitive. Female youth are less likely to aspire to completing university education, pursuing science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)-related jobs or migrating. Aspirations also vary systematically by age: younger youth aged 15–18 tend to hold higher educational aspirations and are more likely to aspire to STEM-related jobs, whereas older youth aged 19–25 shows greater migration aspirations. Aspirations are further shaped by the family wealth. Youth from high-income households are more likely to aspire to completing university education and STEM jobs, and less likely to aspire to migrate. These findings highlight the need for early, gender-sensitive policies that reduce gender and socioeconomic inequalities, expand role-model networks especially for young women and align aspirations with realistic labour-market opportunities.
Abstract This study empirically examines whether periodic financial scarcity leads to fluctuations in cognitive function and mental health and subsequently affects optimal economic decision-making (risk aversion and present bias) among low-paid employees in an urban area in Ghana. We collected the data of the low-paid employees and randomly assigned them into two groups based on their next payday and timing of the interview: those who were interviewed just before their payday were financially more strained than those who were interviewed just after their payday. The estimation results support the theory of scarcity, showing that financial scarcity worsens cognitive function and mental health. However, we found no evidence that financial scarcity affects risk aversion and present bias as well as the quality of decision-making.
This study examines whether the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) maintains monetary policy autonomy despite the CFA franc's fixed exchange rate to the euro. Using Unrestricted Error Correction Models estimated separately for three policy rates spanning 1973Q1 to 2023Q4, we track how long-run policy rate passthrough from the Banque de France and European Central Bank (ECB) has evolved over time. During the discount rate era (1973-1998), the Banque de France rate exerted no statistically significant long-run influence on BCEAO policy, suggesting meaningful autonomy in the early decades of the franc zone. Following the 1994 devaluation and subsequent institutional reforms, however, ECB influence became the dominant determinant of BCEAO policy: a permanent 100 basis point ECB rate increase is associated with a 40-46-bps long-run increase in the BCEAO marginal lending rate and 17-19 bps in the minimum bid rate. Federal Reserve passthrough remains consistently smaller than ECB passthrough across all periods, confirming that the BCEAO's constraint derives from the euro peg rather than the global financial cycle. These findings support critics who argue that the BCEAO has largely relinquished its monetary policy autonomy.
This study presents a bibliometric analysis of the first 30 years of the Journal of African Economies (JAE), from 1992 to 2021, tracing its evolution as a leading platform for scholarly research on African economic development. Over the past three decades, JAE has played a pivotal role in shaping intellectual discourse and policy formulation through rigorous empirical and theoretical scholarly contributions. The study explores publication trends and impact, authorship patterns, collaboration networks and thematic structure. The average scholarship productivity in JAE has increased steadily over the period. The thematic structure of publications reveals a strong focus on macroeconomic conditions, poverty alleviation, inequality and income distribution, labour market analysis and economic growth. Recent scholarships examine sectoral issues in education, technology and agriculture, including food security. The thematic evolution progressed from conflict-related studies and foreign aid to more nuanced topics on institutions, human capital development and regional integration. The authorship patterns highlight scholars domiciled in the UK and Europe as the dominant contributors, though notable African contributors have emerged in recent years, particularly from Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia. The study also highlights the growing international collaboration among scholars publishing in JAE, with eminent collaborators from leading international financial institutions (The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund), Universities (Oxford, UK and Cornell, USA and others), and policy and research institutes in Africa and beyond. Surprisingly, scholars affiliated with institutions and countries in Africa collaborate more with researchers in the global north than with other scholars within the continent. These results offer valuable insights into potential contributors, institutions and policymakers seeking to understand and contribute to JAE's evolving landscape.
We show that subnational regional differences in the productivity gap (PG) between the informal and formal sectors can inhibit aggregate productivity growth from structural transformation (ST). Modelling the efficient intersectoral allocation of labour, the size of PG, corresponds to the intersectoral misallocation of labour. Using data from a census of firms for Ghana, we show that a reduction in the intersectoral misallocation of labour in the country's regions by 50% lowers the regional disparity in PG by the same amount and increases ST-led aggregate productivity in Ghana by 3%.
The quality of education in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to be low, with existing research indicating an ongoing 'learning crisis'. Some key dimensions of the issue of education quality in SSA relate to the availability and the (mis-)allocation of teachers within countries. Drawing on the literature on the role of Information, Communication and Technology in improving public service delivery and promoting transparency, this study uses machine-learning techniques to assess the distributional effects of various teacher allocation mechanisms on students' learning outcomes in primary education in Senegal. Our results suggest that the average performance of students (measured by the mean of student scores) improves in all 12 simulations tested, but at the expense of equity (measured by the standard deviation of student scores). These results highlight a trade-off between quality and equity, which should be further explored and considered in the search for an 'optimal' teacher allocation mechanism in primary education in Senegal. Furthermore, a comparison across the 12 simulations based on a ratio defined as the equity cost for a one-unit improvement in quality suggests that regional-level teacher allocation mechanisms are more effective than the national-level ones, and assigning more experienced teachers to low-performing classrooms at regional level works best in reconciling quality improvement with the need to minimise educational inequality in primary education system in Senegal.
This paper estimates the household welfare effects of South Africa's 2013 Minimum Emission Standards, which tightened limits on major industrial air pollutants. Using the National Income Dynamics Study panel from 2008 to 2017, we exploit the national timing of the reform and cross provincial differences in pre-reform industrial concentration and baseline sulphur dioxide exposure. In a difference-in-differences (DID) design with treatment intensity, households in more exposed provinces experience significantly lower consumption after 2013. Our preferred specifications imply an average reduction of about 4 to 5 percent per year, with larger losses in more industrialised provinces. An instrumental variable strategy based on historical mining locations and wind direction yields larger magnitudes, suggesting that baseline estimates may be attenuated. Mechanism results indicate that both employment losses and earnings reductions contribute to the consumption decline, but these labour market channels account for less than half of the total effect. The burden is concentrated among middle-income households and households linked to pollution intensive industries, while the poorest households in historically high pollution provinces appear less adversely affected. The findings highlight that stricter air quality regulation can generate sizable and uneven welfare costs, underscoring the value of complementary policies that ease labour market adjustment while preserving environmental gains.
Mining taxation is challenging and can be subject to electoral manipulations. On the one hand, mining lobbies may provide financial support for electoral campaigns in exchange for favorable tax policies. On the other hand, to appeal to the median voter, candidates may pledge tax reforms aimed at increasing domestic revenue. We test this hypothesis by estimating the effect of elections on the Average Effective Tax Rate (AETR) of gold mining in Africa. Using a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) on a sample of 20 countries over the period 2000-2020, we find three key results. First, mining AETR exhibits spatial spillovers across the countries in the sample. Second, in accordance with our assumption, presidential elections negatively affect the AETR. The spillover effects on neighboring countries are positive, implying positive externalities on neighboring countries. Third, we show that the effect of electoral cycles differs depending on whether the race involves an incumbent seeking re-election, a non-incumbent candidate following a term-limited president or a non-incumbent stepping in after a political transition. The effect of elections is only significant when an incumbent faces a non-incumbent candidate. These results are robust to a number of robustness checks.
This paper examines the relationship between disability and subjective wellbeing in Uganda, drawing on data from the 2017 Uganda Functional Difficulties Survey. We first use inequality indices to compare wellbeing for adults residing in households with and without members who have disabilities. Results show that average wellbeing is lower in households with disabled members, with the gap widening as disability severity increases. We then examine the determinants of wellbeing using multi-level mixed-effects models and find that social inclusion, measured through experiences of discrimination, perceptions of safety, and access to information and communication technologies, plays a central role in shaping wellbeing. Discrimination and insecurity are strongly associated with lower wellbeing, while household wealth and mobile phone use exert positive effects, with important gender- and age-specific patterns. Considering mechanisms, we find that mobile phone use moderates the negative impact of discrimination. By highlighting both between- and within-household disparities, and the determinants of subjective wellbeing, this study advances understanding of how disability affects wellbeing in sub-Saharan Africa and underscores the importance of inclusive development policies.
Given the state of healthcare delivery in Africa, this study investigates how poverty influences the quality of healthcare services received by individuals patronising government hospitals across African countries. Using wave 9 of Afrobarometer survey data, which covers 39 countries, and an OLS estimation method, we find that an individual's poverty status significantly correlates with the quality of healthcare received. This is evident in aspects such as the adequacy of medical supplies and drugs, the absence of medical staff at their duty posts, waiting times for medical services, the quality of medical facilities at these centres and the degree of respect accorded those who patronise these health facilities by medical staff. The effect of poverty on healthcare service quality is contingent upon contact with public health facilities, rather than merely the presence of such facilities in the neighbourhood. The results remain robust to alternative estimation methods, variations in dependent and poverty variables, control for social desirability bias, and inclusion of numerous control variables. This study provides compelling evidence for interventions that not only directly improve individual economic outcomes but also enhance healthcare service delivery, which should, in turn, positively associated with both health and economic well-being.
Ethnic favouritism is a key aspect of development in Africa. Studies show that the ethno-regional homelands of prominent leaders experience stronger nighttime light illumination, reflecting increased economic activity. Access to public services, such as healthcare and roads, is also greater in areas tied to powerful political actors. This study examines Ethiopia's 20-year health sector expansion program, aiming to provide nuanced evidence of favouritism by evaluating a national policy with well-defined objectives and timelines. To isolate the program's effect, the study evaluates outcomes such as access to institutional delivery, skilled birth attendance, vaccination rates, antenatal care and child survival indicators. Employing a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, the findings provide strong evidence of expanding primary healthcare services in areas ethnically aligned with the government. In sum, while the entire country benefited from the program, it led to a significant divergence in access to and utilisation of healthcare services. The study attributes the disparity primarily to favouritism, with the coethnic group growing faster while marginalised ethnic groups lag behind.
Constructing per capita estimates (e.g., consumption), poverty rates, and other development indicators requires the listing of household members as well as their detailed demographic characteristics in household surveys using rosters. We designed an experiment to understand how respondents and enumerators manage such lengthy listing exercises in household surveys. We randomly assign respondents to 'committed' and 'uncommitted' household member listing rosters. If respondents are likely to reduce effort, they would decrease the number of household members reported in the uncommitted option, when they have the choice to list fewer members and save time. We find a 6-7% reduction in the number of household members listed when household rosters are enumerated with an uncommitted method, implying that 1 out of every 5 respondents reported an additional household member when asked using the committed household roster. Respondent/survey fatigue could explain the difference in the two measures of household size. Overall, our findings speak to the critical role of survey design in ensuring data quality and the important trade-off between survey length and data quality.
Research over decades finds wellbeing is U-shaped in age, while illbeing is hump-shaped. But growing evidence from around the world suggests the wellbeing of the young is declining such that it now rises with age, while illbeing falls. Using data from a number of surveys on fifty-four countries, we examine trends in wellbeing in Africa where there has been little prior research. We find little support for the proposition that the age structure of wellbeing in Africa has changed over the last decade. However, wellbeing appears to improve with age in surveys conducted over the internet, such as Global Minds, which may indicate the young are more susceptible to providing socially desirable responses to interviewers. One potential reason for declining wellbeing among the young in high-income countries is rising screentime linked to fast broadband access. But in countries like Burkina Faso and Guinea, the majority of the population say they have never accessed the internet. Low internet usage might help explain why the wellbeing of young Africans is not declining as it has been elsewhere.
Changes in the size distribution of firms are an important indicator of economic development, with prior work showing that average firm size increases with development. Data on firm size and how it has changed are limited for Africa but since 1987 it has seen sustained growth. Ghana has carried out firm censuses in 1962, 1987, 2003 and 2014. The average firm size in manufacturing reported in these censuses shows a large rise in average firm size when the economy contracted and, over the period of growth, a fall in average firm size from 18.8 to 4.4. We show that the firm size data from these censuses are not comparable. For the censuses for 1987 and beyond, we have microdata that enables us to present the firm size distribution on a consistent basis. Once the censuses are made comparable, they show a more modest fall in firm size from 1987 to 2003. However, the period of relatively rapid growth after 2003 saw no growth in average firm size. This finding is consistent with work showing that African growth has not led to the type of structural change which has occurred elsewhere.
There are a wide variety of development interventions that have been shown to improve welfare of poor, rural households. However, these are frequently delivered piecemeal. Using a randomised controlled trial, we test a new model of aid delivery called the Human Development Fund (HDF) in which a bundle of promising income-generating goods (such as fertilizer and hybrid chickens) and preventative health products (such as insecticide-treated bednets and corn-soy nutritional powder) are given to rural households in Tanzania using a low-cost one-time distribution system. We find large and positive effects of the HDF program on income and household consumption. Profits from maize increased by 170%, contributing a 35% return overall on the cost of the income-generating assets of HDF. Household consumption also increases by 6.1% in the year following the HDF bundle distribution. However, apart from maize inputs, the other income-generating goods (such as hybrid chickens) yielded disappointing results. This calls into question the benefit of a wide bundle in this context, as a tighter focus on maize inputs would likely have been more efficient.
In this paper, we synthesise evidence on the effects of pre-primary education interventions on children's cognitive and socioemotional development outcomes in low- and middle-income African countries. These interventions focus on improving the access to pre-primary education or the quality of classroom instruction by offering training to teachers in schools and early-childhood development centres. Additionally, five of the six programmes integrated a parent-based education component aimed at improving parenting practises or knowledge through psychosocial stimulation, behaviour management and/or involvement in children's school-related activities. In general, the pre-primary programmes targeted children between the ages of 3 and 6 years, and the corresponding studies use experimental evaluation methods to estimate the effects of the programmes on children's outcomes around 1-2 years after the programme started. We find that, on average, these programmes are successful in improving children's cognitive outcomes by 0.10 standard deviations (p-value < 0.01). Similarly, on average, the pre-primary interventions are successful in improving children's socioemotional development by 0.09 standard deviations (p-value < 0.01). Overall, evidence points to the importance of the classroom as well as the home environment in mediating the effect of pre-primary education interventions on children's cognitive and socioemotional development outcomes.
Numerous currency unions have been proposed in Africa over the past 50 years, but none have succeeded. This paper asserts ethnic favouritism is a crucial yet often overlooked feature that strongly influences an African government's willingness to join a currency union. We use a Barro and Gordon (1983) style model that incorporates fiscal dominance, political business cycles and ethnic favouritism to assess the benefits and costs to African households and governments of joining a currency union. Our results show that ethnic alignment between the head of state and central bank governor amplifies fiscal dominance, which reduces an African government's desire to surrender monetary autonomy. A currency union is more beneficial to African households if the common central bank is free from political influence of its member countries and more beneficial to African governments if fiscal dominance persists. Both African households and governments will gain utility from joining a monetary union if the trade benefits are strong enough to overcome the costs of belonging to the union. Given the prevalence of fiscal dominance and modest trade among neighbouring countries, it is easy to understand why Africa has made little progress toward implementing currency unions in recent years.
We analyze how local governments' political alignment with central government affects subnational fiscal outcomes. We use data from Ghana, which has a complex decentralized system that seeks to preclude political alignment effects. District Chief Executives (DCEs) are centrally appointed local administrators loyal to the ruling party, while district Members of Parliament (MPs) may belong to another party. A formula for central transfer distribution aims to limit the influence of party politics. Using a new dataset for 1994-2018 and a close election regression discontinuity design, we find that despite this system, there is evidence of politically-motivated local fiscal outcomes. Aligned districts receive lower transfers and have lower district expenditure and internally generated funds. Additional analyses show that successive district fragmentations appear to have weakened these political alignment effects, despite accusations of gerrymandering, and that effects are largely consistent under governments led by either of the two main political parties. We also uncover strong electoral cycle effects, with mid-term peaks in fiscal outcomes.
The majority of economies in Sub-Saharan Africa are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. This paper examines the impact of positive and negative rainfall shocks on child labour in agricultural households in Ethiopia. We use the timing of survey collection and rainfall in Ethiopia's two growing seasons to investigate both immediate and more long-term (after several months, in the harvest/post-harvest period) effects of rainfall variation. Using household panel data matched with geospatial rainfall data, we find that child labour is higher in the harvest/post-harvest period after a positive main-season rainfall shock and lower after a negative one. This effect is found both for agricultural activities and time spent collecting water and firewood and for both boys and girls, suggesting that households adjust child labour supply in response to changes in labour demand caused by rainfall shocks. The immediate impact of a negative Belg-season rainfall shock is also to decrease child labour. Time spent on agricultural activities decrease for both boys and girls, but the effect is stronger for boys. Furthermore, child labour responses to rainfall shocks are accompanied by effects on school attendance and absenteeism. We also investigate whether Ethiopia's public works program or access to local credit markets appear to mitigate the impact of rainfall shocks on child labour. Our results suggest that they do not.
A vast literature on the effects of contemporary population diversity, frequently defined in terms of measures with ethnic and linguistic components, tends to highlight its negative consequences for contemporary real-world outcomes. Research on deforestation in this setting is scarce and has mostly taken a case-specific perspective. However, it only shows the visible 'tip of the iceberg' when it comes to deforestation by only focusing on contemporary population diversity. This study advances the argument that a historical perspective can illuminate the underlying drivers of deforestation. I focus on Africa due to its unprecedented deforestation and high population diversity. I show for the first time that historical population diversity, both originating centuries ago and more recently, accelerates contemporary deforestation. However, the ecological legacy of historic population diversity should not be understood as an irreversible destiny. Against this background, the study concludes with a discussion of how its findings can be used to improve Africa's forest management.
