Malaria remains a significant global health challenge, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the majority of the burden. While vector control measures such as pyrethroid-based insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying have significantly reduced malaria incidence, the emergence of insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquito populations threatens these gains. Resistance develops through genetic mutations under prolonged selection pressure, complicating control efforts and necessitating a deeper understanding of its evolutionary dynamics. This study introduces a novel mathematical framework to investigate the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. By modelling insecticide resistance as a continuous (quantitative) trait influenced by multiple genes, we capture its variability and evolutionary transient dynamics. We propose an age-structured mosquito population model using integro-differential equations, where the resistance trait influences life-history parameters such as mortality and reproduction. Our approach provides new insights into how resistance emerges and spreads within mosquito populations over time. We analyse the model's properties, including the existence of a unique maximal bounded semiflow, and derive conditions for the existence and stability of steady states. Through parameterization and simulations, we explore the transient and long-term dynamics of resistance evolution under different scenarios. The results offer valuable insights into the evolutionary mechanisms driving insecticide resistance and inform the design of sustainable vector control strategies.
In this study, we develop epidemic reaction-diffusion models by incorporating the dependency of the diffusion rate of susceptible individuals on new infection cases, employing both Fickian and Fokker-Planck-type diffusion laws. As the first part of a two-part series, we focus on epidemics driven by frequency-dependent incidence. We explore linear, exponential and algebraic relationships between diffusion rate of the susceptible population and new infection cases to provide deeper biological insights. Our analysis establishes the global existence of solutions and characterizes the threshold dynamics using basic reproduction numbers. We find that in quasilinear parabolic systems, the Fokker-Planck-type diffusion law tends to induce spatial segregation of susceptible and infected individuals, while the Fickian law favours spatial homogenization of susceptible individuals. Additionally, the Fokker-Planck-type model, where the diffusion rate of infected individuals depends on new recovery cases, more accurately captures the cognitive diffusion behaviour of individuals.
This work investigates the dynamics of positive classical solutions to a diffusive susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a mass-action incidence mechanism in spatially heterogeneous environments. Under minimal assumptions on the initial data, the global existence of classical solutions is established. Moreover, the eventual boundedness of these solutions is proved when either the spatial domain has dimension five or lower or the susceptible and exposed subpopulations share the same diffusion rate. Next, we define the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$ , and demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is sufficiently small. However, due to the complex interaction between population movement and spatial variation in transmission rates, we find that the disease may persist even when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is slightly less than one. In such cases, we show that the system admits at least two endemic equilibrium (EE) solutions, an outcome not observed under the frequency-dependent incidence mechanism. These results highlight the significant influence of the transmission mechanism on disease dynamics. Furthermore, we examine the spatial profiles of the EE solutions when diffusion rates are small. Our analysis suggests that limiting the movement of the susceptible population can significantly reduce disease prevalence, provided that the total population remains below a specific threshold. In contrast, restricting the movement of the infected, exposed, or recovered populations alone may not eradicate the disease. Overall, our findings provide important insights into the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases and may offer guidance for developing and implementing effective containment strategies.
The doubly degenerate nutrient taxis system \begin{equation} \left \{ \begin{aligned} &u_{t}=\nabla \cdot (uv\nabla u)-\chi \nabla \cdot (u<^>{\alpha }v\nabla v)+\ell uv,&x\in \Omega ,\, t\gt 0,\\[5pt] & v_{t}=\Delta v-uv,&x\in \Omega ,\, t\gt 0,\\ \end{aligned} \right . \end{equation} is considered under zero-flux boundary conditions in a smoothly bounded domain $\Omega \subset \mathbb{R}<^>3$ where $\alpha \gt 0,\chi \gt 0$ and $\ell \gt 0$ . By developing a novel class of functional inequalities to address the challenges posed by the doubly degenerate diffusion mechanism in (0.1), it is shown that for $\alpha \in (\frac {3}{2},\frac {19}{12})$ , the associated initial-boundary value problem admits a global continuous weak solution for sufficiently regular initial data. Furthermore, in an appropriate topological setting, this solution converges to an equilibrium $(u_\infty , 0)$ as $t\rightarrow \infty$ . Notably, the limiting profile $u_{\infty }$ is non-homogeneous when the initial signal concentration $v_0$ is sufficiently small, provided the initial data $u_0$ is not identically constant.
This paper studies a time-switching advection-diffusion system modelling the competition between Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in heterogeneous environments. The switching mechanism is induced by periodic releases of sterile Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which are active only during their sexual lifespan within each release period. By defining a minimal release amount and four critical release period thresholds, we establish the periodic dynamics of the system, providing new insights into optimal control strategies of mosquitoes. Specifically, the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if sterile releases are sufficiently frequent and abundant, which ensures the eradication of both Aedes species. For less frequent sterile releases, we prove the global asymptotic stability of the two semi-trivial periodic solutions and demonstrate the existence of a coexisting periodic solution, indicating cases where mosquito control fails. Numerical simulations are presented to validate our theoretical findings.
