Criminology is a constellation of many different interrelated subfields that study the various institutions constituting and person(s) involved in the criminal justice system. While the researchers that contribute to these subfields are independent, the contributed research is inherently interdependent. Sub-disciplinary collaboration is an essential catalyst of innovative research that can be translated into effective, evidence-based interventions. Using life-course and policing scholarship as a prominent example, we aim to further understanding of cross-pollination between subfields. We propose weight activated main path analysis (WAMPA), a synthesis of topic modeling and main path analysis, to analyze criminology and criminal justice peer-reviewed research published between 2001 and 2020 (N = 31,257). WAMPA uses topic modelling output to guide MPA towards life-course and policing research. Stochastic actor-oriented modelling is then used to further investigate aggregate cross-citation between life-course and policing research. We map influential policing and life-course literature from the last two decades, examining citations that connect the two concurrently developing bodies of work. We find little cross-citation between the main paths of policing and life-course criminology, almost exclusively received by flagship publications. We further find that cross-citation between all policing and life-course scholarship is, on average, less likely than cross-citation with other topics. Life-course criminology and policing scholarship have evolved independently. This limited (or lagged) communication has the potential to obfuscate redundant research and overlook integrative opportunities. The development of evidence-based, developmentally informed policing practices that address the complexity of criminal behavior over the life-course would benefit from increased communication and collaboration.
With the rise in incarceration and negative mental health symptomology, the need to identify protective factors that can buffer psychological distress within carceral settings has become increasingly clear. In response to this, there has been growing interest in examining the relational aspect of those impacted by incarceration, though studies remain limited, particularly regarding romantic attachment. This longitudinal study used data from three waves (baseline, 9 months, 18 months) of the Multi-site Family Study on Incarceration, Parenting, and Partnering (MFS-IP) and investigated the possible relationship between romantic attachment and symptoms of depression and PTSD in 1,352 incarcerated men in romantic relationships with female partners over 18 months. Multilevel modeling suggested that more secure romantic attachment predicted significantly lower symptoms of both depression and PTSD, a protective pattern consistent with attachment theory and present at both the between-person and within-person levels. These associations were stable across the 18-month study period, with no significant change over time. The findings stress the potential importance of relational bonds during incarceration and suggest that relationship-focused support may be relevant throughout the incarceration period.
In recent years, studies have demonstrated a close relationship between substance use and delinquency among young people. However, the dynamics and directional structure of this relationship have long remained unclear. Studies in the United States suggest bidirectional effects between these behaviors, but comparable evidence from Germany is lacking. This study analyzes five waves of data from the Crime in the Modern City (CrimoC) project, covering the years 2003 (age 14) to 2007 (age 18), to examine associations between substance use and delinquency. Alcohol and marijuana use are analyzed separately, as are violent and general delinquency. It is assumed that early heavy alcohol consumption increases the risk of violent behavior, but not marijuana use. Furthermore, we expect substance use and general delinquency to be reciprocally related during adolescence. To examine potential effects at the individual level, a trivariate random intercept cross-lagged panel model is employed. The findings indicate a predominantly unidirectional within-person association from heavy alcohol consumption to later violent delinquency. Contrary to our expectations, the results provide only limited support for a reciprocal relationship in general delinquency. As was the case for violence, heavy alcohol consumption emerges as a consistent predictor of general delinquent behavior.
Cyber-dependent offenses involve the exploitation of information technologies to target digital infrastructures, such as hacking, malware, and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. This study applied the Triple Risk Delinquency (TRD) framework as an analytical lens to compare personal, social, and situational or opportunity risks between distinct categories of cyber-dependent offending. We drew on data from a sample of 725 Dutch students aged 12–25 (Mage=16.62 years; SD = 1.99; 25.66
Recent methodological work has shown that the classical Cross-Lagged Panel Model (CLPM) conflates stable between-person differences with within-person temporal processes, which can produce bias through inflated autoregressive and cross-lagged estimates (Hamaker, 2023; Hamaker et al., 2015; Lucas, 2023; Usami et al., 2019). As an alternative, Curran et al. (2014) presented the Growth Curve Model with Structured Residuals (GCM-SR) which simultaneously estimates latent trajectories and cross-lagged parameters between the residuals of the constructs, allowing for a separation of between- and within-person effects. The present study applies the GCM-SR to the longitudinal link between emotional neglect and juvenile delinquency across five panel waves from the CrimoC study. On the within-person level, emotional neglect showed strong stability while juvenile delinquency did not show significant autoregressive effects. Cross-lagged parameters indicated no significant effect of emotional neglect on subsequent delinquent behavior, and no significant effect of juvenile delinquency on later emotional neglect. On the between-person level, intercept and slope factors of both constructs were negatively associated, indicating that higher initial levels of both emotional neglect and juvenile delinquency predict weaker subsequent increases. The construct’s intercepts were positively associated, but their slopes were not. A negative association emerged between the intercept of emotional neglect and the slope of juvenile delinquency. Compared to an identically constrained CLPM, the GCM-SR yields smaller and non-significant cross-lagged estimates, likely reflecting that the effects are due to stable between-person variances. This supports the use of the GCM-SR instead of the CLPM when aiming for conclusions on within-person processes.
Reciprocal causal relationships are a common feature of criminological theories. For example, stable employment may reduce offending while offending may lead to unemployment, and perceived disorder may increase fear of crime while fear of crime may increase sensitivity to signs of disorder. When multiple observations over time are available, cross-lagged panel models are commonly used to estimate these reciprocal effects. Yet this is often done without careful attention to how they map on to the theoretical process they are meant to capture or whether key assumptions of the models are satisfied. This may result in estimates that are not substantively meaningful or are biased or even reversed in sign. Reciprocal relationships also pose challenges for causal assumptions based on graphical tools; theories that posit reciprocal causation often rely on underlying macro–micro mechanisms not explicitly represented in empirical models. We provide guidance on how to align theory, model specification, and choice of estimator, illustrated with two motivating examples: the relationship between employment and offending and the relationship between perceived disorder and fear of crime. We distinguish theoretical reciprocality—in which feedback processes are of substantive interest—from reverse causality—in which reciprocal processes are a nuisance threatening identification of an effect of interest—and discuss three common issues for cross-lagged panel models: unobserved time-stable heterogeneity, improperly specified temporal order, and insufficient variation over time. We conclude by reminding researchers of the importance of aligning methods with theory in longitudinal research.
Understanding predictors of offending is essential for developing effective crime prevention. Educational attainment is a readily available metric for pupils in many countries, with performance on standardised tests often systematically collected throughout school. If changing attainment is associated with offending risk, it could present a signal to check in with pupils and offer appropriate support. We analysed an existing linkage between the National Pupil Database and the Police National Computer in England. In a cohort of 4.3 million pupils born between the academic years 1990/91 and 1996/97, we modelled trajectories of standardised attainment on statutory tests at ages 7, 11 and 16 years. We then investigated the association between these attainment trajectories and subsequent first offence convictions or cautions during young adulthood. Among pupils showing relative declines in attainment over their school career, 1 in 3 were convicted or cautioned for a first offence before the end of school, and 1 in 10 were convicted or cautioned for a first offence during young adulthood. Additionally, among pupils who performed at below average levels towards the beginning of school, their odds of offending during young adulthood were 53
The American juvenile justice system was founded on the belief that youth deserve distinct treatment. However, the current system is frequently criticized for failing to support young people, prompting calls for a new era in research, policy, and practice. This paper introduces the Fostering Opportunities for Resiliency, Growth, and Empowerment (FORGE) model, a comprehensive framework for juvenile justice research, policy, and practice. It advances a paradigm shift from deficit-oriented approaches toward a holistic, strength-based system that uses positive youth development to promote well-being and reduce recidivism. The FORGE model is grounded in four core tenets: 1) every youth is capable of growth; 2) relationships must be built on trust; 3) authentic engagement with a youth's circle of care is essential; and 4) empowerment through personally meaningful activities is the most promising path to success. These principles are put into practice through three objectives: helping youth work toward their ideal future self, engaging them through positive activities, and addressing their unique unmet needs. Together, these elements provide a coherent, research-informed foundation for building a more just and effective system that empowers youth to build stronger futures.
There is continuing debate about gender differences in antisocial behaviour from childhood to adults of middle age. Moffitt (2018) has documented changes in antisocial behaviour from childhood to early adulthood identifying adolescent limited and life course persistent typologies of antisocial behaviour. There is a need to build on existing research on gender differences in antisocial behaviour across the life-course in two ways, first by extending the age of follow-up to 40 years and, second, by assessing the different antisocial trajectories for males and females into adulthood. Data are from a long-running birth cohort study. Respondents were recruited in the foetal period (mother) and have been repeatedly interviewed to 40 years of age. At 5 years, the mother completed the Achenbach Child Behaviour Checklist, and at 14 and 21 years, the children self-reported their behaviour on the same measure. At 30 and 40 years respondents completed a newly developed antisocial behaviour questionnaire. Mean number of antisocial behaviours were obtained at each follow-up. Separate male and female trajectory models were derived and produced trajectory paths that were largely similar. The most frequent pattern was respondents who had low levels of antisocial behaviour from 5 to 40 years of age. Consistent with existing research we find trajectories with an adolescent peak then decline in ASB (high and medium peaks). Extending what is currently known, we find for both males and females, a small group who have a moderate adolescent peak then a decline and subsequent increase in ASB by 40 years of age. While the findings suggest there is limited persistence in ASB from childhood through adolescence to adulthood, there emerges a concern that existing measures of adult ASB do not represent the extent or diversity of ASB manifested by adults. While gender differences in ASB over the life course appear to be modest, this may partly reflect the poorly developed measures of ASB used to assess adult occurring ASB.
This study examines whether Western desistance theories explain crime cessation in a non-Western context. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 36 formerly incarcerated individuals—all crime-free for at least two years post-release—in Diyarbakır, Türkiye, a region characterised by strong collective family structures, pervasive religious practices, and rates of burglary and drug-related offences that exceed national averages, we explore the factors facilitating desistance and reintegration. Analysis identified eleven factors: family support, the deterrent effect of imprisonment, employment, social environment, personal motivation, education, prison programmes, drug cessation, probation, religiosity, and age. While these broadly resonate with Western frameworks—including life-course, cognitive transformation, and social control theories—three contextual themes shape how they operate. First, family functions as the primary site of relational identity and collective obligation, not merely as informal social control. Second, religiosity operates as a culturally embedded moral framework intertwined with family honour, rather than primarily as an individual coping resource. Third, the deterrent effect of imprisonment is perceived with particular intensity, amplified by the social stigma that incarceration carries for the entire family in collectivist settings. These findings suggest that while desistance mechanisms may be broadly universal, their expression and weight are shaped by local cultural, familial, and religious structures. The study contributes to cross-cultural desistance scholarship, arguing for reintegration policies grounded in local socio-cultural realities rather than the direct transfer of Western models.
Crime is a major societal problem that impacts countries worldwide, undermining the safety and well-being of individual citizens while imposing substantial economic and social costs on communities and governments. To address this issue, societies respond by imposing sanctions, primarily within the criminal justice setting. Although numerous studies have examined the impact of sanctions on reintegration, most focus narrowly on recidivism and are predominantly based on US data. This special issue brings together innovative quantitative and qualitative research using data across Europe and the United States, to explore reintegration in a broader context. The articles in this special issue address critical gaps in the existing literature by exploring understudied dimensions of reintegration and their interconnections, as well as by examining temporal changes in reintegration rather than relying on static conceptualizations. In doing so, they adopt the holistic and dynamic perspective essential for advancing life-course research on reintegration. The introduction to this special issue begins with a synthesis of the existing literature and then proceeds to outline the principal contributions and key findings of the articles presented in this collection. The introduction further offers considerations for future research directions.
Prior research has examined correlates of graduation from mental health courts (MHCs). However, research has not explored age-based variations (with emerging adult categories) in those correlates. Emerging adults may be less likely to graduate due to increased impulsivity and lack of maturity- necessitating age-graded interventions. Alternatively, developmental brain plasticity and a greater capacity to change may produce positive outcomes. The present study uses data from Texas MHCs to examine if compared to adults (26 + years old), older (ages 22–25) and younger (ages 18–21) emerging adults are more or less likely to graduate and how correlates of success vary across these age groups. Results indicate that when other relevant factors are considered (i.e., charge type, housing and education status, and risk assessment score), there are no differences in success by age group. Results do, however, indicate that correlates of graduation differ across these age sub-groups. For example, Black young emerging adults were less likely to graduate than their White counterparts. Education was a protective factor for adults and older emerging adults, while permanent housing was a protective factor for adults and young emerging adults. Risk and protective factors for success may vary by age group, and targeted interventions to increase protective factors (i.e., providing education and housing services) could increase success.
Dutch Adolescent Criminal Law (ACL) allows judges to impose juvenile sanctions on 18-to-23-year-olds, acknowledging their ongoing neurocognitive and psychosocial development. Forensic psychologists and psychiatrists play a central role in advising these decisions, yet no uniform guidelines exist for assessing developmental maturity. This study analyzed 431 forensic reports to identify which developmental functions are considered and how maturity is evaluated. While core functions such as impulse control and emotion regulation were often assessed, others such as sensation seeking were systematically overlooked or described with limited specificity. Results indicate that the majority of adolescents demonstrated age-inappropriate development across multiple domains. The findings highlight the need to improve current advisory practices and provide concrete recommendations for both clinical practice and future research. First, a structured yet flexible checklist is needed to ensure systematic and empirically informed assessment of all relevant functions. Second, clearer and more evaluative reporting could reduce uncertainty regarding developmental status and enhance the judicial use of expert advice. Third, incorporating complementary neuropsychological and neurophysiological assessment methods may enhance the precision and individualization of maturity evaluations. Finally, given the high prevalence of developmental delays within this population, further research should clarify which of these adolescents are most likely to benefit from a juvenile framework. Strengthening the conceptual and empirical foundation of ACL advisory practices will be crucial for developing, testing, and refining evidence-based guidelines that bridge the gap between developmental science and judicial decision-making.
As cyber fraud becomes an increasingly visible feature of informal youth economies in parts of West Africa, much remains unknown about how young offenders articulate aspirations for life beyond digital offending. This study explores the desistance intentions of Ghanaian youth engaged in cyber fraud, drawing on 50 in-depth interviews conducted across three major cyber fraud hotspots. Rather than focusing on proven behavioral exit, the research examines how participants narrate aspirations to desist, and how these intentions are shaped by social bonds, moral reflection, spiritual unease, and changing digital environments. Drawing on feminist criminology perspectives and digital criminology frameworks, the study reveals that expressed desistance intentions are often symbolic, conditional, and fraught with contradiction—where marriage, employment, or fatherhood serve as imagined turning points, but are constrained by structural precarity. The study critically examines the performative and rhetorical dimensions of these narratives, recognizing that expressed intentions may serve identity-work functions rather than signal imminent behavioral change. Notably, the study identifies cyber-specific disruptions—such as platform surveillance, client resistance, and the erosion of online fraud communities—as emerging “hooks for change” that weaken commitment to crime. By situating these dynamics within digital criminology and integrating theories of informal social control, cognitive transformation, and narrative identity, this research offers a nuanced, context-sensitive understanding of how desistance is envisioned in digital criminal careers. It challenges binary models of exit and highlights the need for policy interventions that are both digitally informed and culturally grounded.
The relationships between neighborhood characteristics, like disadvantage and collective efficacy, and criminal behavior are complex, with few studies examining their longitudinal interplay over the course of adolescence to adulthood. The present study investigated direct, indirect, and interactive effects of neighborhood disadvantage and collective efficacy in adolescence on adult violent and non-violent criminal behaviors (age 16–29), using data from three waves of the Healthy Passages study (N = 663). We tested indirect pathways through adolescent delinquency, exposure to neighborhood violence, and perceived neighborhood disorder. Neither neighborhood disadvantage nor collective efficacy directly predicted adult violent or non-violent criminal behaviors. Results indicated that neighborhood disadvantage was associated with higher adolescent exposure to neighborhood violence and greater perceptions of neighborhood disorder, but not with adolescent delinquency. However, an indirect effect emerged, with neighborhood disadvantage related to a lower likelihood of non-violent criminal behavior via greater perceived neighborhood disorder. Adolescent delinquency robustly predicted both violent and non-violent criminal behaviors in adulthood. No significant interactive effects between neighborhood disadvantage and collective efficacy were observed. Findings underscore the complexity of neighborhood influences on crime development and suggest that adolescents’ perceptions of their environments may serve as one potential mechanism linking structural disadvantage to certain long-term behavioral outcomes.
The relationship between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and violent or aggressive behavior (VAB) in early adulthood has been firmly established, prompting researchers to identify potential intermediary life-course factors that may mollify aggression and violence for people with ACEs. Among these factors, support from family and peers has emerged as a possible buffer. Prior studies have focused on support in childhood with limited attention to adult support mechanisms and little research has explicitly examined different forms at each life course period. The current study aims to address this knowledge gap. Data were drawn from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (NESARC-III) provided by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). We analyzed a subsample of non-institutionalized U.S. adults ages 18-30 (n = 8,860). Hybrid latent-linear logistic regression models were estimated to assess the effects of five categories of ACEs and two latent social support constructs on the odds of VAB in adulthood. All ACE categories significantly increased the odds of VAB, especially abuse and physical neglect, but neither childhood nor adulthood support significantly moderated this relationship. Analysis of the marginal effects of the support interactions suggest, however, that physical neglect and parental substance use/mental health issues on adult VAB disappear at the lowest levels of childhood support, countering hypotheses and suggesting a complex relationship between support in childhood and the long-term effects of ACEs on violence and aggression. These results provide evidence against a simple peer-support model for policy and programming around ACEs where violence or aggressive behavior is concerned.
Telomere length has been linked to adverse health outcomes in various fields of research. At the same time, criminologists have identified similar adverse health outcomes in individuals engaged in criminogenic lifestyles and environments. We examined telomere length as an underlying biological process linking crime and health. In our analyses, we used a longitudinal sample of 1,614 youth from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS) to examine the impact of genetics, early life environments, and early life behaviors on telomere length. The results indicate that genetic predisposition had the largest effect size on youth telomere length. Additionally, a number of early life criminogenic environments and behaviors, which prior research suggests are influential in telomere length development, were found to have a null association. Maternal depression and child maltreatment measures were shown to have a significant association with youth telomere length. However, the statistical significance of these environments varied by age, sex, and model specification. The effect sizes of the child maltreatment and maternal depression measures were much weaker when compared to the effect size of maternal telomere length. Overall, results suggest that genetic predisposition has the strongest association with youth telomere length. Conversely, criminogenic factors have null or weak associations with youth telomere length. Future studies should further examine novel behaviors and environments for potential correlations with telomere attrition.
Changes in parental discipline and parental warmth may be related to the maldevelopment of self-control. Also, boys and girls may react to these changes in parenting practices differentially. Nonetheless, previous research has neglected why these parenting constructs may change, how parenting changes may impact children’s self-control, as well as how this effect may be different for boys and girls. This study examines the effects that changes in parental warmth and discipline have on later child self-control, how these effects may be moderated by gender, and why changes in parenting may occur. Using data from The Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, OLS regression models are specified to determine whether residual changes in maternal warmth and discipline are related to child low self-control and whether this may be moderated by the child being female or male. Additionally, OLS regressions are specified to determine what factors may be related to residual changes in maternal warmth and discipline. Findings indicate that unpredicted increases in maternal warmth and discipline are significantly associated with child impulsivity. In addition, increases in maternal discipline corresponded with maternal characteristics such as maternal impulsivity and neuropsychological functioning. Lastly, maternal warmth did not show a gender-specific relationship with the development of self-control. Some models suggest a gender-specific association between maternal discipline and impulsivity; however, this finding was not replicated in all sensitivity models, and future research should examine whether this potential interaction reflects a true statistical association.
This study investigates the reciprocal, within-person associations between legal attitudes, specifically perceived legitimacy and legal cynicism, and correctional confinement during the critical developmental transition from adolescence to early adulthood. Drawing on data from the Pathways to Desistance project (ages 15–22), we employ a Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model to separate trait-like stability from time-varying fluctuations. Results reveal a robust, bidirectional link between perceived legitimacy and correctional time. Specifically, lower legitimacy predicts greater correctional time in the following year, and more correctional time, in turn, is negatively associated with perceived legitimacy. In contrast, although cynicism increased in response to more correctional time, it did not predict later confinement when legitimacy was included. This finding runs counter to prior findings suggesting that cynicism is the more direct driver of rule-breaking and justice involvement. Instead, legitimacy, rather than cynicism, emerges as the belief system with forward-looking consequences. These patterns persist across ages 15–22. Methodologically, the study illustrates the utility of RI-CLPM in disentangling developmental trends from experiential effects on attitudes and behavior. Substantively, the results underscore legitimacy as a developmentally consequential belief system that predicts future confinement and highlight legitimacy-building practices as promising intervention targets to disrupt cycles of justice system entrenchment.
Emerging adulthood (ages 18–25) is a challenging period because of recent societal changes (e.g., later age of marriage) and ongoing biological and neural development. Those in this age range who have committed offences pose unique challenges to the criminal justice system and particularly the probation service. Whilst most young people desist from offending during this period, reoffending rates remain high. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence about how best to support emerging adults who are on probation. The Youth to Adulthood Hub (Y2A Hub) is a unique intervention embedded within one diverse probation area in London, England which uses a holistic approach aimed at fostering engagement. This intervention includes practical support (e.g., housing, employment), and tailored psychological support delivered in a trauma and culturally informed manner. Administrative data was used to compare the rates of attendance at statutory probation meetings between individuals who had received support from the Y2A hub (N = 73) and a control group of individuals (N = 860) from similar probation areas, controlling for age, ethnicity, and risk levels, using a multivariable binomial regression model. The results suggested that the Y2A was associated with a significant increase in engagement with probation and a reduction in unacceptable absences. The Y2A hub is a promising approach for addressing the needs of criminally justice involved young adults but further evaluation is warranted.
