ABSTRACT This paper relies on a novel dataset of more than 31,000 industrial policies in around 150 economies over the period 2009–2022 to codify and examine the stated objectives and design characteristics of these policies. Using large‐scale machine learning methods applied to policy texts, we systematically classify policy objectives at a global level and document several new stylised facts. We find that industrial policies increasingly pursue multiple objectives, often ones that may be hard to reconcile. In a two‐way fixed effects framework, we show that industrial policies with environmental objectives are more common in Western economies while secure supply objectives are more common in economies geopolitically aligned with China. The majority of industrial policies exhibit features that may make them prone to capture by special interests: they discriminate against foreigners, are firm‐specific and lack ‘sunset clauses’. Industrial policies which reduce firms' costs (such as subsidies, as opposed to taxes) have become more common over time, in particular in rival geopolitical blocs. These features of industrial policies highlight the importance and challenges of evaluating their value‐for‐money, which, in turn, requires clear identification of the primary objective of each policy.
ABSTRACT This study examines the impacts of GVC participation and its components on financial development across 55 economies from 2000 to 2018. Grounded in the openness theory of financial development, we employ panel fixed effects, panel quantile regression and dynamic panel threshold regression to analyse how GVC integration through trade openness, financial openness, and demand for financial services influences financial development. Our results show that GVC participation has a positive and significant influence on financial development regardless of a country's existing financial market development, though the effect diminishes at higher quantiles. The dynamic panel threshold regression reveals a clear dichotomy: GVC participation is positively associated with financial development in lower growth economies but negatively associated with it in higher‐growth economies. We verify the robustness of this dichotomy by classifying economies as advanced or emerging using the IMF World Economic Outlook classification. The bootstrap bias‐corrected fixed‐effects results, estimated separately for each income group, corroborate the divergent effects documented in the main analysis. Additionally, we employ domestic credit to the private sector, the Financial Markets Index, and the Financial Institutions Index as alternative proxies for financial development, all of which confirm the baseline findings. Our results underscore the need for tailored GVC strategies across different stages of economic development.
ABSTRACT As geopolitical rivalry intensifies and pressures toward deglobalization grow, the systemic vulnerabilities of global production networks have become increasingly evident. Global value chains are shifting from an efficiency‐first model toward one that places greater emphasis on both efficiency and security, accelerating the regional reorganization of cross‐border production. Using industry‐level panel data covering China and 20 Asia‐Pacific partner countries from 2000 to 2022, this paper examines how cross‐national industrial spillovers affect regional value chain resilience. The results show that cross‐national industrial spillovers significantly strengthen China's regional value chain resilience. Mechanism analysis indicates that these spillovers operate through two complementary channels: they reduce bilateral institutional frictions and improve soft infrastructure, while also deepening China's digital embeddedness in partner countries and strengthening hard infrastructure connectivity. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the resilience‐enhancing effect is concentrated in technology‐ and knowledge‐intensive industries and is particularly pronounced for partner countries with higher levels of political trust and greater geographic proximity. These findings provide new empirical evidence on the regional restructuring of global value chains and suggest that emerging economies can strengthen resilience to external frictions and production disruptions by developing regional production networks with politically trusted and geographically proximate partners.
ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of a positive export shock on gender‐specific labour market outcomes using nationally representative household and firm‐level data from Vietnam. We exploit exogenous variation in provincial exposure to tariff reductions induced by the U.S.–Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. We find that opening to export markets is associated with stronger wage growth for men than for women, widening the estimated gender wage gap, although we find little evidence of gender differences in working‐hour responses. Opening to export markets is also associated with workers' transitions out of unpaid family work and into formal employment. However, these responses do not differ significantly between women and men. By contrast, women are significantly more likely than men to transition into non‐manual occupations in provinces more exposed to U.S. tariff reductions. Moreover, a positive gender composition effect provides an additional channel through which trade shapes gender disparities. As complementary evidence, the firm‐level analysis shows stronger growth in female employment in trade‐exposed regions, while female workers are more concentrated in larger firms that experience lower wage growth. Our findings show that increased export market access can generate divergent effects along the employment and wage margins, helping reconcile conflicting results in the existing literature and highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in understanding the gendered consequences of global integration.
ABSTRACT This paper examines how export demand shocks affect firms' export portfolios and, through within‐firm product reallocation, promote the productivity of multi‐product firms. Combining Chinese micro‐level data with global bilateral trade data from 2000 to 2007, this paper constructs measures of destination‐specific export demand shocks and export skewness. We find that positive export demand shocks in foreign markets induce firms to concentrate a larger share of their export sales in better‐performing products. This finding is robust to alternative measures of export skewness, potential sample selection concerns and controls for changes in trade policy. Furthermore, positive export demand shocks are associated with higher firm productivity, and the evidence suggests that increased export concentration constitutes an important channel underlying these productivity gains. Consistent with a within‐firm reallocation mechanism, the productivity‐enhancing effect of export demand shocks is concentrated exclusively among multi‐product firms.
