A bold proposal to re-embed food systems under democratic control, and within planetary boundaries, uses a long tradition of social security in francophone Europe. Beginning as a grassroots initiative, food social security and the right to food have since made parliamentary advances in France, Belgium and Switzerland, while a first pilot now runs in Spain. The proposal offers lessons for food system reform well beyond Europe.
Disputes and polarization at the intersection of agriculture, food, health and the environment are impeding food system transformation towards sustainability. Engagement of scientists in complex controversies along with other actors-especially in transdisciplinary approaches that recognize values and interests, build on disagreements and enable ideas to evolve-can foster collective knowledge and intelligence, reduce polarization and generate multi-sectoral innovation. Here a framework is presented for increasing the contribution of scientists to actionable knowledge and improving science-policy-society interfaces for the public good. Succeeding in these roles, although challenging, could motivate the next generation of food system scientists towards greater public involvement and collective action.
Food fortification is central to addressing micronutrient deficiencies in West Africa and elsewhere. Yet evidence remains limited on whether current staple food fortification vehicles equitably reach vulnerable populations and whether candidate vehicles warrant inclusion. We analysed household consumption and expenditure surveys from ten countries in West Africa to estimate vulnerability to inadequate intake of five micronutrients, assessing wheat flour and edible oil as current standard vehicles and rice, maize, millet and sorghum as candidates. Vulnerability to inadequate intake was high across all ten countries: on average, households were probably vulnerable to around three to four of the five priority micronutrients assessed (mean probability of inadequacy 0.56-0.73), with Mali and Niger the most affected. More than half the population was vulnerable to inadequate iron, zinc and folate, and vulnerability was consistently higher in poorer households. Wheat flour and edible oil showed limited reach among poorer populations and low consumption among those most in need. Rice showed high coverage and alignment with vulnerability profiles across countries, while millet and sorghum showed potential to reduce inadequacy in the Sahel. These findings support the expansion of the regional vehicle portfolio through prioritization aligned with vulnerability and vehicle access.
Large-scale food fortification can be an effective strategy to address hidden hunger, but only if vulnerable populations actually eat the fortified foods. A systemic framework using publicly available data from ten West African countries reveals that a wider mix of fortified foods than are currently considered for fortification is needed for building more equitable programmes.
Cropland phosphorus (P) is essential for global food security, yet its management remains challenging owing to low phosphorus use efficiency (PUE), leading to resource depletion and nutrient loss from agricultural fields. Although a range of management practices can improve PUE, their effectiveness varies across environmental and socioeconomic contexts, and the absence of a predictive framework has hindered global assessments of their potential. Here we develop a machine learning model to map global PUE geospatial variations for maize, rice and wheat and quantify potential gains under a feasibility-constrained scenario. Our results reveal global average PUEs of 25.1% for maize, 25.0% for rice and 24.2% for wheat. Under three-layer feasibility constraints, management interventions could yield absolute PUE gains of 5.2-6.0%, with adoption barriers as the dominant limiting factor. Changes in cropping system and fertilizer type are the two largest management contributors across all three crops. Our spatially explicit framework evaluates the feasible PUE improvement potential, providing a foundation for regionally differentiated phosphorus management that supports sustainable intensification and food security.
Expectations of global crop yields, especially in major production countries, strongly influence crop-export policies and global food security, especially during national and global disruptions. Timely yield estimation remains difficult at the global scale because of large differences in crop phenology, environmental conditions and agricultural practices. Here we propose a framework that integrates yield statistics with multi-source remote-sensing and complementary geospatial data, and employs random forest models to estimate major crop yields in all production countries. We selected three cases, the coronavirus disease 2019 global pandemic, Australian wildfires and the Ukraine war, to verify the model performance under different regional and global disruptions. The framework achieved a satisfactory accuracy globally, especially in major crop-production countries with developed agricultural techniques. When croplands were not severely affected by such events as wars or wildfires, this framework even enabled crop yields estimation months before harvest. This research provides a methodological reference for global yield estimation to support timely crop trade policies and reduce food-security risks.
Timely estimation and forecasting of crop yields at national and global levels is essential to manage market volatility. Yet, better understanding of estimation accuracy and whether and how this impacts market volatility is essential.
Past biofuel expansions reveal that when industrial-scale investment outpaces land governance, independent scrutiny and community participation, low-carbon crop transitions can reproduce land concentration, displacement and ecological simplification. A close examination of an emerging biofuel frontier in Brazil shows why land rights, public accountability and equitable benefit-sharing must guide crop-based decarbonization from the outset.
Despite national and international commitments to food systems transformation and an increasing adoption of common indicators, no comprehensive targets have been established against which progress can be measured. Here, building on the Food Systems Countdown Initiative framework, we identify existing targets-based on internationally agreed commitments and normative goals-and establish benchmarks-based on empirically derived peer performance reference values at the global, regional and income group levels-for 44 Food Systems Countdown Initiative indicators. We also assess countries' historical progress and the rate of change required to achieve targets and benchmarks over two different timescales. We show that current progress is insufficient to meet 2030 targets and benchmarks at global level. Comparing countries' status to regional and income benchmarks, which are generally less ambitious, yields better performance across indicators and regions, although gaps remain. Achieving most targets and benchmarks by 2050 is possible if countries correct course and accelerate progress, but certain indicators will require considerable investment and intervention.
Debt-for-food swaps have been presented as instruments that can simultaneously mobilize additional resources for food security and alleviate debt distress in countries with heavy debt burdens. A recently announced large-scale swap deal between Kenya and the US International Development Finance Corporation provides an opportunity to assess the future potential of such instruments and to identify key considerations for maximizing their effectiveness.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are already enhancing food security early warning systems by improving data collection, event monitoring and forecasting. However, to avoid costly errors, artificial intelligence and machine learning should be applied selectively alongside expert oversight, robust governance and transparent practices to maintain accountable and effective humanitarian decision-making.
Carbon storage and biodiversity are heavily impacted by food systems. Here we map and trace long-term carbon storage and biodiversity loss from land use in global agricultural supply chains at a high spatial and product resolution. We show that while the Northern Hemisphere experiences greater carbon loss and the Southern Hemisphere higher biodiversity loss, areas with high carbon and biodiversity losses are often co-located, with two-thirds of total losses occurring within one-third of the total area. Food consumption drives 83% of losses, of which animal-sourced foods drive 59% of carbon and 71% of biodiversity losses. Bovine meat and milk account for 29% of carbon and 41% of biodiversity losses. Brazil is the largest net exporter for both losses, and China is the largest net importer, with animal products as dominant flows in both cases. Supply and demand interventions focusing on high-impact regions and products provide opportunities for joint efforts in climate and biodiversity policy.
Yield benefits of increasing soil carbon observed in field trials are much less present on farmers’ fields. Disentangling when and where soil organic matter functions address yield-limiting factors will allow the best use of our organic resources.
Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is an economically viable pathway to achieve climate and food co-benefits, but it remains unclear whether the positive soil organic carbon (SOC)-yield relationship observed in field trials applies to real-world farms. Here we analysed maize yield responses to SOC on 1,246 field trials and 192 farms in Northeast China using multiple causal inference approaches. We found that an increase in SOC consistently enhanced maize yield in field trials but had no detectable effect in farms. Field trials showed significant yield increases of 8-13% up to a threshold of 30-40 g SOC kg-1 soil. On farms, however, yields rose by only up to 5% with increasing SOC to a threshold of 10.0 g SOC kg-1 soil and then decreased to around the initial yield. The absence of a positive yield-SOC response in real-world farms was mainly attributable to excessive nitrogen fertilizer applications, along with limited farmer knowledge and inadequate infrastructure hindering effective adoption of soil conservation practices. Our findings underscore the need to integrate fertilization, soil conservation strategies and farmer support to fully realize the potential of SOC on yield.
The introduction of salt iodization is associated with improved health and socioeconomic outcomes, but is not yet universally adopted and is not always sustained. Using a quasi-experimental event study with difference-in-differences over space and time, we quantify the impacts of iodine deficiency in utero and during infancy on childhood mortality and later academic achievement in Ethiopia, comparing cohorts born just before and after the May 1998 border closure that interrupted access to iodized salt. Rural children with fewer months of early-life exposure to iodized salt scored lower on standardized secondary-school exams, especially in districts with low environmental iodine, with excess deaths emerging in infancy and persisting through early childhood. These findings reveal the long-term benefits of salt iodization for health and education, especially for people with low intake of iodine from environmental sources.
Contamination from plastic packaging poses a key challenge for expanding organics recycling. Now, the impact of diverting all post-manufacturing food waste in the United States away from landfills is quantified in terms of greenhouse gas release, nutrient loading and plastic pollution.
Diverting food waste to composting and anaerobic digestion can reduce landfill methane emissions and contribute towards a circular bioeconomy, but trade-offs can be incurred from nutrient loading to aquatic ecosystems and contamination from plastic packaging. Here we used mass balance modelling and life cycle assessment to compare the climate, nutrient loading and plastic pollution impacts of current landfill-dominant US food waste management with hypothetical organics recycling scenarios. We estimate that nationwide implementation of organics recycling could reduce the climate impact of US food waste management by 89-99%, and associated nitrogen and phosphorus loading to downstream waterways by 49-54% and 78-98%, respectively, relative to current landfill-dominant practices. However, land application of food waste-derived composts and digestates would offset <2% of US mineral nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer consumption annually and, without innovations in food packaging design, could discharge ~20,000 t of plastic to US agricultural soils each year.
Diets across age groups vary in both nutritional quality and greenhouse gas emissions, yet their relationship remains poorly understood in the context of population aging and evolving dietary patterns. We evaluated dietary emissions associated with 141 products across 22 age groups in 149 countries from 2000 to 2019, combining age-specific dietary intake from the Global Dietary Database with a consumption-based emission inventory derived from FAOSTAT. We quantified changes in emissions alongside shifts in nutritional quality and examined contributions of demographic and dietary factors. Adolescents and young adults generally had the highest per capita dietary emissions, while seniors contributed most to global emission growth, particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Increased meat intake was a leading contributor to rising emissions and frequently coincided with declining nutritional quality. These findings highlight the need for dietary-emission mitigation efforts across age groups that account for demographic shifts, nutritional needs and national development contexts. Analysis of age-specific dietary emissions in 149 countries shows that adolescents and young adults have the highest per capita emissions, while population aging, particularly in higher-income regions, corresponds to growth in total emissions. Rising meat consumption, especially red meat, is the dominant contributor to increasing emissions and often coincides with declining nutritional quality.
Sustainable food system transitions will likely require targeted dietary strategies, yet most models typically estimate environmental footprints at the aggregate level and overlook variation between individuals and contexts. Here we develop a globally harmonized model integrating individual food intake and supply chain data to estimate diet-related climate, water and land impacts, and dietary quality using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), across 72 socio-demographic subgroups in 165 countries. We find large disparities across groups. Highly educated urban men aged 15-34 years have the greatest emissions (median, 5.66 kgCO2e d-1), with 62% of their diets plant sourced. Low education, rural women aged 35-54 years have the lowest (2.85 kgCO2e d-1), with plant-sourced foods comprising 70% of their diets. Healthier diets are consistently associated with lower environmental impacts, with each 5% increase in AHEI associated with a 7.7% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 4.4% reduction in water footprint and a 7.2% reduction in land footprint. Countries cluster into distinct patterns of diet quality and sustainability, indicating that targeted rather than uniform strategies are needed to accelerate sustainable dietary transitions.
