Bridging the gap between food production policies and water sustainability requires multi-pollutant perspectives, yet such integrated assessments remain scarce. Here we simulate five food policy pathways (2020–2050) and evaluate their potential to enhance multi-pollutant control in Chinese rivers, explicitly linking the implementation and ambition of food production policies to future water quality. Using a newly integrated MARINA-Multi model applied to 395 sub-basins, we quantified inputs of nutrients, plastics, 24 antibiotics and herbicides to rivers under these pathways, which incorporate 54 existing environmental strategies. Without effective policy implementation, pollutant loads could increase by up to 63% by 2050. By contrast, ambitious sustainable pathways could reduce most pollutants by up to 41%, primarily through advanced manure and crop management. Controlling microplastic pollution remains a persistent challenge even in our most optimistic pathway, highlighting a critical trade-off with urbanization. Food production policies can directly impact water quality. This study evaluates five policy pathways to enhance multi-pollutant control in Chinese rivers, considering nutrient inputs, plastics, antibiotics and herbicides.
Methods for estimating nitrous oxide emissions, a major contributor to the carbon intensity of nitrogen fertilizer-dependent crops, can produce substantially different results across frameworks. Standardized approaches are needed to avoid distorting trade and strengthen incentives for mitigation of emissions.
Compound hot–dry–windy events (HDWs) increasingly threaten wheat production, but temporal changes in wheat sensitivity remain unclear. Here we combined multidecadal county-level yield records, hourly reanalysis climate data, phenological observations and production-cost records to quantify responses to three HDW types across China. High-temperature, low-humidity events increased by 0.7 hours per decade and were associated with the largest yield losses, reducing county-level yield by up to 7.6% at approximately 10 hours of exposure. County-level yield sensitivity also became increasingly negative during 1981–2018, with estimated changes of −31.5 kg ha−1 h−1 to −15.6 kg ha−1 h−1, particularly during the middle and late reproductive stages. Within the XGBoost models, changes in HDW occurrence were the most influential predictors of sensitivity trends, and field-trial analyses showed consistent temporal patterns. These findings reveal increasing wheat vulnerability to compound atmospheric stress and highlight a growing adaptation gap to intensifying HDWs in China. Increasing hot–dry–windy events threaten wheat yields in China, with significant yield losses linked to high-temperature, low-humidity conditions. Analysis of extensive yield and climate data reveals worsening sensitivity trends, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in agricultural practices.
Compound hot–dry–windy events are becoming more frequent and increasingly damaging to wheat yields in China’s wheat belt, underscoring the need for improved crop management, breeding and climate adaptation.
Debates about healthy and sustainable diets often overlook the diversity of African food systems. African food-based dietary guidelines can help to bring locally valued foods, dietary practices and ecological realities into nutrition policy. Used alongside agricultural and social policies, they can support dietary diversity, sustain beneficial food traditions and guide food system change without assuming that every traditional practice is sustainable or accessible.
