Hate crime underreporting in Spain constrains victim support and evidence-based policy. We test whether Spain’s Action Plan to Combat Hate Crimes (2019–2021) increased recorded incidents by improving reporting and detection. Using Bayesian structural time series causal impact analysis, we model monthly counts from Spain’s Statistical System of Criminality (January 2015–December 2021) with Germany and Finland as predictive covariates. The model learns the pre-intervention relationship and forecasts the post-intervention counterfactual. Recorded incidents increased by 20.3% (95% credible interval 10.5%–30.3%); excluding 2020, the increase was 27.3% (16.3%–39.2%). Placebo and sensitivity tests support a policy-specific effect (posterior probability > 0.99). Findings are consistent with improved awareness, recording, and reporting rather than higher victimization.
To expand knowledge around plea decision making, we drew upon theories of valence framing, social influence, and source credibility to explore the effects of goal framing, attorney recommendations, and attorney trust on acceptance of a plea offer and following attorney advice. Relying on two national samples, we fielded factorial vignettes manipulating these factors. Trustworthiness of the defense attorney was, by far, the most consequential factor in plea decision making. Respondents followed attorney recommendations when the attorney was presented as trustworthy and went against their advice when not trustworthy. Any goal frames established were inconsequential. The findings highlighted the importance of building trust in attorney-client relationships, which can overcome frames, cues, and heuristics at play in the context of decision making.
Prior research has demonstrated that bullying victimization is associated with numerous academic and behavioral consequences, including an increased likelihood of skipping school. However, the extent to which depressive symptoms and suicidality might intervene in the relationship between bullying and school refusal has received insufficient attention, and potential differences between females and males in these pathways remain underexplored. The current study analyzes data from the 2024 Florida Youth Substance Abuse Survey ( N = 29,748), which was administered to a statewide sample of public middle and high school students. The findings reveal that the influence of more frequent physical, verbal, and cyber bullying victimization on school refusal is partially indirect through internalizing symptoms. Especially noteworthy direct and indirect effects emerge among girls.
This study examines social reintegration challenges faced by formerly incarcerated individuals (FIIs) in China through 483 official case records, 13 in-depth interviews, and 2 months of fieldwork. Integrating rehabilitation and social integration theories, we identify four critical barriers, including institutional, economic, social, and psychological exclusion. Findings reveal a systemic disconnect between China’s resocialization policies and their implementation, creating a multi-layered exclusion mechanism. While some FIIs seek alternative belonging through mutual-aid communities or social enterprises, these mechanisms remain fragile without institutional support. The four-dimensional framework provides analytical tools for understanding reintegration barriers and offers implications for criminal justice policy refinement.
Guided by traumagenic dynamics and evolutionary-developmental (e.g., life history) frameworks, this study examines whether developmental stage and sexual victimization group status (e.g., childhood, adolesces, adulthood, or multiple victimizations across developmental stages) are associated with different risk profiles (e.g., sexual attitudes and behaviors) using data from 932 women’s online self-report surveys. 344 (37%) women experienced unwanted vaginal penetration during their lives (32 childhood only, 78 adolescence only, 118 adulthood only, and 116 multiple stages). ANOVAs with Dunnet T3 posthoc tests and multinomial logistic regressions predicting victimization group revealed significant between-group differences for age of menarche, age of first consensual intercourse, mental health, sociosexuality (SOI-R), and posttraumatic sexual behavior (PTSBI-W). Results demonstrate the need for developmentally informed prevention and treatment policies.
There is a divide between political rhetoric and academic research on the topic of immigration and crime. Political rhetoric often claims that immigrants are dangerous and deportation is necessary to decrease crime. In contrast, empirical research demonstrates lower criminality among immigrants and little effect of deportation on crime. In light of these competing narratives, it is unclear where public perception stands on this issue. Some recent research has demonstrated that more American’s may be buying into political claims that immigration increases crime, however, recent research has not explored why the public has grown to accept these claims, and what factors drive these beliefs. To address these gaps, this study investigates the factors that are associated with endorsement of the four core pillars of contemporary political rhetoric concerning immigration’s effects on (1) crime, (2) gangs, (3) drugs, and (4) the need for immigration enforcement. Using a nationally benchmarked sample ( n = 1139) from Lucid Theorem collected in May–June 2025, the analysis assesses multiple theorized predictors of support for these narratives about immigration, including support for Trump, White nationalist sentiment, and Latino punitiveness, alongside other relevant correlates. The findings suggest Latino punitiveness is the strongest and most consistent predictor of these beliefs.
Using survey-experimental data, we examine how race affects Americans’ willingness to videotape police detaining a teenage suspect. Donald Black’s theory of social control, with its focus on self-help, provides a theoretical context for expecting Black Americans to be more likely to serve as “cop watchers.” Consistent with this theory, Black respondents are more willing (70%) than White respondents (42%) to record police-citizen encounters, especially when the citizen is Black. Willingness to record is not associated with officer race, but it is lessened by the presence of other bystanders recording the incident. That Black Americans are more willing to exert social control as “cop watchers,” especially to help other Black civilians, indicates that cell phones now serve as a “candid camera” that exposes officers’ misbehavior.
This study used Add Health longitudinal data to investigate whether any effect of religiosity on later delinquency (likelihood of arrest and incarceration) is linear - as opposed to high-religiosity individuals driving an inverse relationship. The study assessed potential mediator-moderator interactions involving self-control and social control variables. Finally, the robustness of findings to potential biases due to omitted variables was assessed. Only highly religious participants were associated with a substantially lower likelihood of arrest. Self-control and social environment variables are important predictors of delinquency. There is little evidence that these variables mediate the effect of religiosity on outcomes; they instead moderate the effect of religiosity on outcomes. Finally, conventional regression estimates likely underestimate the true effect of religiosity on the outcome.
How should society react when someone commits a crime? In a democracy, public consent matters. Punitive approaches are popular, but not always consistently desired. Drawing on a variety of theoretical work, we use punitive dissonance to describe the phenomenon where punitive preferences—encouraged by pervasive punitive frames—conflict with redemptive impulses toward specific populations. We further explain how people manage this dissonance through the selective use of social and spatial boundaries—a strategy boosted by widespread frames of ‘criminals’ as others. We employ a simple survey experiment to reveal evidence of this boundary-based management strategy for punitive dissonance, finding higher punitive preferences for juveniles who are more socially and spatially distant from the respondent. We discuss implications for understanding popular punitiveness.
Prison riots represent extreme institutional breakdowns with underexplored gendered dimensions. Drawing on interviews with 24 men incarcerated after the deadliest U.S. riot in 25 years, this study examines how masculinity and gang affiliation shaped violence and identity. Riots amplified hypermasculine imperatives—strength, loyalty, readiness for force—while destabilizing them. Gangs operated as ambivalent formations: engines of violence yet surrogate families offering belonging and moral guidance amid institutional neglect. The aftermath opened space for alternative masculinities rooted in care and restraint, echoing disaster research where crises fracture dominant masculine roles. These dynamics challenge monolithic portrayals of prison masculinity and underscore the need for theory and policy that treat masculinity as a central organizing principle shaping harm and transformation.
This study examined the effects of Child-Parent Center (CPC) preschool involvement on juvenile arrests for violent offenses and downstream adult economic outcomes. Three aims were addressed: (a) whether CPC participation reduces juvenile arrests for violent offenses, (b) whether adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) moderate this relationship, and (c) the direct and indirect effects of CPC on adult income via reduced arrests. CPC participation significantly lowered the likelihood of juvenile arrest for violent offenses, with effects strongest among females. For females with high ACE exposure, the benefit diminished. Path analysis indicated arrests for violent offenses explained 16.94% of CPC’s association with income, indicating partial mediation. These findings emphasize the importance of early childhood intervention in preventing delinquency and improving long-term economic stability.
Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) present a rapidly evolving challenge with significant implications for law enforcement, such as the use of drones by terrorist and criminal actors. Yet, little empirical work has examined how law enforcement officers perceive or prepare for this threat. Through a nationwide survey of 293 law enforcement officers, this mixed-methods study examines officers’ perceptions of drone-related threats, awareness of legal boundaries to response, and organizational preparedness. Qualitatively, approximately two-thirds of respondents characterized the threat to their jurisdiction as moderate or high, highlighting threats to critical infrastructure and potential mass-casualty attacks. Quantitative analyses show the important impact of training, and that officers in local and county agencies report less confidence than federal officers regarding legal authority and responsibility.
A common requirement for individuals on probation is to remain in contact with their probation officer (PO). Failure to do these actions may result in a violation that could lead to a revocation. Further, not knowing one’s whereabouts on probation could create public safety concerns. Using qualitative interviews with individuals on probation who have received a violation for “failure to appear,” we explore why individuals stopped reporting to probation. Findings reveal problems with substance abuse, obstacles with basic needs, and miscommunication with PO as explanations for why individuals stopped reporting. In this article, we expand upon these findings and their implications by situating them in the theoretical frameworks that focus on the relationship quality between POs and clients.
This study investigated the influence of school suspensions on three juvenile court outcomes among male students referred from school: dismissal, diversion, and probation. It also investigated whether the relationship between school suspensions and court outcomes were moderated by four offense types: violent, property, drugs/alcohol, and disorderly conduct. Utilizing data from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice Research Partnership Project, contrary to expectations, suspensions increased the likelihood of diversion but decreased the likelihood of probation. Moderation effects were limited, among youth charged with violent offenses, suspensions reduced the probability of dismissal and increased the likelihood of diversion. Property and drugs/alcohol offenses did not moderate the relationship between suspensions and diversion in the expected direction. These findings suggest that the relationship between school suspensions and juvenile court outcomes is more complex and context-specific than initially anticipated.
Previous research suggests truancy is related with increased risks for substance use and combustible nicotine and marijuana use. However, limited research has investigated the link between truancy and vaping nicotine and marijuana. Further, much past research on the relationship between truancy and nicotine and marijuana use employed data collected before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent shifts in patterns of adolescent truancy. This study utilized data from the 2024 Florida Substance Abuse Survey (FYSAS) to examine the link between truancy and nicotine and marijuana vaping. Findings indicate that as the number of school days skipped increases, the likelihood of vaping and combustible use of nicotine and marijuana in the past 30 days increases. Policy implications are discussed.
Drug treatment courts (DTCs) rely on structured supervision and treatment to curb substance use among justice-involved individuals. Using group-based trajectory modeling, this study identifies early-phase patterns of in-program substance use among 320 adult DTC participants, measured through positive drug tests across the first 90 days. Three distinct trajectories emerged: abstainers, responders, and non-responders. Logistic regression analyses revealed that abstainers had significantly higher odds of program graduation compared to non-responders. In contrast, responders—despite reductions in substance use—did not have higher odds of completion, suggesting that early behavioral improvement alone may be insufficient for successful program outcomes. These findings highlight early compliance monitoring as an indicator of treatment responsiveness that can inform more efficient, individualized interventions tailored to participants.
This study examines whether state laws restricting deceptive interrogation tactics with juveniles reduce case resolution. Using NIBRS data from 2021 to 2024 and staggered adoption across nine states, we estimate effects on arrest clearances and prosecution-declined exceptional clearances for juvenile-involved serious offenses. Across Bayesian difference-in-differences, state-specific Bayesian synthetic control models, placebo tests, and robustness checks, arrest clearances do not decline after adoption within the study period. Estimates are null to modestly positive, including within individual treated states. Prosecution-declined clearances fall in treated states, but adult-offender placebo and triple-difference analyses show this pattern is not juvenile-specific. The findings suggest that juvenile deception restrictions do not impose a measurable system-level cost in case resolution.
Male and female sexual victimization has been studied, although research has yet to strongly establish whether victimization occurs similarly across victim sex in the same types of locations, same areas of a city, or in places with similar structural factors. The current study fills these gaps by studying male and female sexual victimization in Los Angeles. Relying on official crime incident data, this study describes the types of locations unique types of sex crimes occur at for males and females, explores the spatial distribution of male and female victimization, and tests for structural factors as predictors of sex crimes in census tracts. Results of descriptive analyses suggested subtle differences in the types of locations (e.g., indoors vs. outdoors) for certain styles of sexual victimization for male and females, although a spatial point pattern test suggested male and female victimization followed similar spatial distributions throughout Los Angeles census tracts. Finally, spatial autoregressive models indicated theoretical variables, including a household activity ratio, land use type, and concentrated disadvantage were important predictors of both male and female sexual victimization. These findings suggest routine activities, crime pattern, and social disorganization theory policy applications could be effective for simultaneously reducing male and female victimization.
This study examines recidivism among 5,456 individuals released from Illinois state prisons between 2009 and 2019 after serving at least 10 consecutive years of incarceration. The study has two aims: first, to document patterns and timing of rearrest following release from long-term incarceration; and second, to examine whether demographic characteristics, criminal history, and sentencing features are associated with variation in post-release trajectories. The analysis employs time-to-event (survival) methods, including flexible parametric models that allow rearrest risk to vary over time. Results show that rearrest risk is highly front-loaded, declining sharply after release. Older age at release was increasingly protective over time, while prior incarceration history was associated with delayed and accumulating risk, suggesting reentry policy should prioritize early post-release support.
Deviant peer association is a robust risk factor for offending, but limited research has examined development of this construct across the life-course. Research has examined this development during the adolescent years. This study sought to examine childhood dual systems imbalance (high sensation-seeking paired with low impulse control) as a predictor of deviant peer association from late childhood through middle adolescence. The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development data were analyzed. Group-based trajectory modeling identified developmental patterns of deviant peer association. Logistic regression examined dual systems imbalance in childhood as a predictor of development. Findings indicated that a two-group model fit the data (Low Increasing; High Increasing). Greater dual systems imbalance predicted greater risk of assignment to the High Increasing deviant peers group.
