ABSTRACT Introduction How do individuals seek information when a security threat is anticipated but has not yet materialized? This study examined whether intolerance of uncertainty and state anxiety are differentially associated with information consumption across channels during an anticipatory conflict period. Methods A national quota‐sampled survey of 403 Israeli adults was conducted in late February 2026, during days of heightened concern preceding a joint US–Israeli strike on Iran and Iranian retaliation. Mediation analyses (PROCESS Model 4; 5000 bootstrap resamples) examined associations between intolerance of uncertainty, state anxiety, and six information outcomes, controlling for demographic covariates. Results Domestic mainstream media, social media, and interpersonal channels were associated with intolerance of uncertainty directly; speculative platforms and foreign media only indirectly, through state anxiety. Respondents who find uncertainty generally difficult reported heavier use of channels embedded in daily routine, whereas those reporting greater anxiety during the crisis were more likely to consult sources outside it. Conclusion The findings are consistent with psychologically differentiated patterns of crisis information seeking: routine channels reflect stable dispositional monitoring, whereas non‐routine channels are associated with acute affective states. The study introduces speculative information platforms into crisis communication research and identifies state anxiety as a candidate mechanism differentiating media pathways.
ABSTRACT Objective Minnesota's 2023 Child Tax Credit is among the most generous permanent state child credits enacted in the wake of the temporary 2021 federal expansion. This paper provides early quasi‐experimental evidence on whether Minnesota.s 2023 family tax‐credit package, which is a fully refundable Child Tax Credit of up to $1,750 per qualifying child bundled with a redesigned Working Family Credit improved material hardship and mental health outcomes among households most likely to have received it. Methods The analysis uses repeated cross‐sectional data from the Census Household Pulse Survey (HPS) spanning March 2023 through July 2024, restricted to households with incomes below $75,000 and observed work status across Minnesota and 35 comparison states. The main specification is a triple‐difference design exploiting variation across state, parental status, and time with state‐by‐wave, state‐by‐child, wave‐by‐child fixed effects. Identification is assessed using event‐study diagnostics, Rambachan‐Roth sensitivity, and Benjamini‐Hochberg false discovery rate corrections across the outcomes. Results The preferred estimates show a 1.7 percentage point reduction in food insecurity, a 2.7 percentage point reduction in rent hardship, a 2.9 percentage point reduction in housing hardship, and a 7.2 percentage point reduction in mental health indicator among Minnesota households with children following benefits onset. Estimates are directionally stable across comparison pool restrictions and treatment timing variations. Income restriction heterogeneity confirms a dose‐response pattern for housing hardship and mental health, with effects largest among households below $25,000. Finally, sensitivity analysis indicates the estimates are sensitive to moderate violations of parallel trends. Conclusions Minnesota.s 2023 family tax‐credit package is associated with early improvements in food security, housing stability, and mental health among households most likely to receive it, with effects concentrated where the credit was most generous. The findings offer the first quasi‐experimental evidence on permanent, non‐emergency state child credit and provide a methodological template for evaluating the expanding landscape of state child credits.
ABSTRACT Introduction This study examines how immigration attitudes vary across immigrant generations and racial and ethnic groups in the United States, evaluating competing expectations derived from assimilation theory, segmented assimilation theory, and the third‐generation return (ethnic revival) hypothesis. Methods Using nationally representative data from the 2004–2024 General Social Survey (GSS), we estimate generalized ordered logit models and predicted probabilities to analyze ordinal measures of immigration attitudes across immigrant generations and racial and ethnic groups. Results First‐generation immigrants exhibit significantly more favorable immigration attitudes than later‐generation individuals. Contrary to the third‐generation return hypothesis, third‐generation or higher individuals do not exhibit more favorable attitudes than second‐generation individuals. Instead, immigration attitudes become less favorable across successive generations, consistent with assimilation theory. These generational patterns vary across racial and ethnic groups: Non‐Hispanic White respondents show the largest shift toward less favorable attitudes across generations, while non‐Hispanic Black and Hispanic respondents maintain more favorable attitudes even in later generations. Conclusion Immigration attitudes reflect racially stratified processes of intergenerational assimilation consistent with segmented assimilation theory, rather than symbolic ethnic revival, underscoring the importance of examining immigrant generation and race jointly in studies of public opinion.
ABSTRACT Objective Address three questions: (1) To what extent are direct victimization and contextual exposure to crime related to people's perceptions of crime in their neighborhoods? (2) Does the type of crime matter? (3) Do the effects of exposure to in one place “spillover” to evaluations of other areas? Methods We leverage data from surveys of residents of large US cities that asked respondents how safe they feel in their neighborhood and about their perceptions regarding how crime in their neighborhood compares to rates elsewhere. We also asked respondents about their victimization experiences and paired respondents with data on crime rates in their Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA). We estimate multiple regression models to estimate the relationships between our measures of crime exposure and each of our outcomes. Results Both victimization and local crime rates predict crime perceptions, though the relationships are arguably modest in magnitude. We find some evidence that instances of violent victimization are particularly closely connected to subjective feelings of safety, but all types of victimization predict more objective assessments of crime rates. Our evidence also suggests that the effects of exposure to crime in a given geographic area do not “spillover” and shape perceptions about crime and safety in other areas. Conclusion Our findings corroborate and extend findings from existing work, shedding new light on the relationship between exposure to crime and both subjective feelings of safety and more objective assessments regarding how crime rates in one's neighborhood compare to rates elsewhere.
ABSTRACT Objective While men are disproportionately represented in most elected US political institutions (e.g., Congress and state legislatures), some county‐level offices—such as clerkships—reach gender parity or are disproportionately held by women. Research on gender and work, however, suggests that men often maintain advantages within feminized fields. This study examines whether gender inequality persists within county clerkships, focusing on access to higher prestige positions. Methods Using survey data from county clerks in 14 states, we ask two questions: (1) Are men more likely to hold higher prestige county clerk positions? and (2) Do factors that shape advancement in national and state politics operate similarly at the local level? Results We find that men are more likely than women to hold more prestigious county clerk positions. However, traditional predictors of political careers—such as ambition, tenure, and prior experience—do not explain this disparity. Instead, advancement is primarily shaped by institutional processes, particularly encouragement associated with political party recruitment. These processes structure access to higher prestige roles and generate unequal returns for men and women. Conclusions These findings extend research on the glass escalator into elected office by demonstrating that even in women‐dominated political positions, gender inequality is reproduced through institutional gatekeeping that differentially channels and rewards candidates.
ABSTRACT Objective This study aims to explain a sharp increase in average course grades at a large midwestern state university during the COVID pandemic. Methodology The study employed multivariate analysis of average course grades with course–faculty matching and other controls. Results The shock disproportionately affected grades in courses with low pre‐COVID average grades. These courses also retained a larger share of the increase in grades. Conclusion The shock appears to have contributed to grade compression at the high end, with significantly fewer low grades in some STEM gatekeeper classes. However, after 4 years, the overall effect is largely consistent with previous secular trends.
Objective We examine how the misalignment between ethnic-language schooling and the adult linguistic environment-a condition we term linguistic displacement-shapes ethnic minorities' political support for the central state in China.Methods Using the China Family Panel Studies (2012-2018), we link childhood school records to adult political attitudes for 210 ethnic minority respondents across 10 ethnolinguistic groups. We estimate an interaction model in which the effect of ethnic-school attendance on central-state evaluations is conditioned on adult Mandarin fluency as an indicator of the adult linguistic environment, with ethnicity fixed effects and a Heckman-type selection correction to address endogeneity in school choice.Results Ethnic schooling has no measurable political cost for respondents whose adult lives remain in an ethnic-language environment but is associated with more critical evaluations of the central state among those who have moved into a Mandarin-dominant one. The pattern appears for central-state evaluations but not for local-cadre trust, consistent with hierarchical trust theory.Conclusions The findings reframe a long-standing debate by showing that the political consequences of ethnic-language education are not fixed but conditional on the post-schooling linguistic environment. States that protect minority languages in schools while promoting a national lingua franca elsewhere predictably generate the conditions for linguistic displacement-and its political costs.
Introduction Recent trends suggest that the United States is experiencing right-wing political violence with heightened influence of Christian nationalism in public dialogue.Method Using original data from a nationally representative survey of American adults, we explore whether gun ownership and gun owner identifying Christian nationalists are more likely to support political violence.Results Christian nationalists believe that their identity is under threat, increasing the desire for political violence. Meanwhile, the tools of violence are made salient through gun owners' possession of firearms; and for those with a high gun owner identity, there is an inculcated culture of personal and community protection that should make them more likely to endorse extreme actions like violence. Finally, we find that gun ownership and gun owner identity amplify the effect of Christian nationalism on support for political violence.Conclusion Our results point to Christian nationalism, gun ownership, and gun owner identity as accelerants to support for political violence.
Objective Disputes over election fraud have become a defining feature of contemporary American politics, yet it remains unclear whether partisans are disagreeing about the same underlying phenomenon. This article examines how Americans understand and interpret the phrase "election fraud" and whether partisan divisions reflect differences in concern about fraud or differences in what the term itself is taken to mean.Methods We use novel survey questions included in our team's module of the 2024 Cooperative Election Study (N = 1000). An open-ended question captures respondents' own top-of-mind associations with the phrase "election fraud," while a closed-ended item asks respondents to indicate which phenomena they believe political elites are referring to when they invoke that phrase.Results Across both measures, Democrats and Republicans agree that clear illegal acts, such as casting multiple ballots, constitute election fraud. However, partisan differences emerge in the breadth of phenomena associated with the term. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to associate election fraud with a wider range of activities, including media bias, prosecutorial actions, and systemic manipulation.Conclusion Partisan disagreement over election fraud reflects not only differences in levels of concern but also differences in how partisans associate meaning with the phrase itself. These findings have important implications for survey measurement and for interpreting public opinion on election integrity.
Objective We examine how gendered differences in political attitudes have evolved in the United States across generations and historical contexts. Utilizing Gallup Poll Social Survey Series (GPSS) data (2000-2024), we analyze public opinion across three issue domains: care and social protection, social stability and societal change, and morality and rights conflict.Methods Cross-classified random effects modeling assesses whether gender gaps reflect generational replacement (cohort effects) or changes over time (period effects).Results Period effects account for much of the observed change in socio-political attitudes, while cohort effects play a limited role. Although men and women differ in their opinions, their attitudes generally move in parallel, leaving the gender gap stable over time. Women consistently express greater concern than men on issues including hunger and homelessness, crime and violence, drug use, healthcare access, and the environment.Conclusion These findings challenge narratives of increasing gender polarization. Despite intensified public discourse on issues such as race, abortion, gun policy, and LGBTQ+ right, gender gaps remain relatively stable, suggesting that perceived polarization may reflect elite-driven framing more than mass-level divergence.
Objective The literature is replete with explorations of the Supreme Court's apparent abandonment of consensual behavior with respect to issuance of concurring and dissenting opinions. However, few studies examine whether the demise of this behavioral norm correlates with a decline in the justices' unifying around a common policy pronouncement. This is a key concept, as consensus includes the justices' writing separate opinions as well as the extent to which they issue decisions that encompass policy cohesion. Further, it is unclear whether chief justices have the capacity to marshal their courts around these divergent indices of consensus.Methods We seek to fill these voids by assessing the ability of several recent chief justices (Fred Vinson, Earl Warren, Warren Burger, William Rehnquist, and John Roberts) to forge consensus, including policy cohesion, encompassing more than 70 years of Supreme Court history. We examine several key indicators of consensus to determine if these chief justices were able to lead the court to express greater legal clarity during those momentous times.Results Our findings demonstrate differential proficiencies of chief justices to shape institutional policy cohesion on their courts. Additionally, we find that dissensus is often relatively higher during the entire tenures of the chiefs than those observed during the first decade of service of each chief justice alone. Although some chief justices contributed to the decline of legal certainty, others were able to forge greater consensus among the justices.Conclusions The chief justice occupies a key position on the court that can be used to move the court to speak with a more unified voice, not only in terms of opinion-writing but also with respect to the court's policy pronouncements. That power is particularly salient when the court faces external pressures during key moments of American political history.
Objectives To test whether cues to a judge's sexual orientation influence perceptions of judicial impartiality and whether such effects have changed over time.Methods Two between-subjects survey experiments conducted nine years apart (N = 836 in 2014; N = 493 in 2023) asked respondents to evaluate a state court judge described with heterosexual, gay or lesbian, or no-orientation cues. Identical vignette structures enabled direct comparison across contexts.Results In 2014, respondents rated gay and lesbian judges as more biased than heterosexual judges, while perceptions of correctness showed little difference. By 2023, orientation-based bias had mostly receded: ratings of gay male judges no longer differed from heterosexual or no-information judges, and only a modest residual bias toward lesbian judges remained.Conclusions Even in a more accepting social climate, subtle identity cues can still shape perceptions of impartiality, refining conditional-legitimacy theories of judicial evaluation.
Introduction This paper examines whether hostile campaign rhetoric-specifically incivility and character attacks-affects electoral outcomes in U.S. gubernatorial elections from 2010 to 2023. While such rhetoric may mobilize supporters or attract attention, it may also generate voter backlash in an era of increasing affective polarization. The study evaluates whether candidates benefit electorally from adopting more aggressive and uncivil campaign strategies.Methods We construct novel measures of incivility and character attacks using three large language models, GPT-4o, Claude Sonnet, and DeepSeek V3, alongside additional LLM-based measures of ideological extremism and populism. These variables are incorporated into regression models of incumbent party vote share, controlling for established predictors of gubernatorial elections and additional political and contextual factors. We also address potential endogeneity by incorporating campaign polling data and conducting robustness checks across multiple specifications.Results We find that higher levels of incivility and character attacks are consistently associated with lower vote share, with effects of roughly 2.5-3 percentage points per standard deviation increase. These relationships remain robust after controlling for ideology, populism, and early and mid-campaign polling, suggesting they are not driven solely by underdog candidates adopting negative strategies. In contrast, ideological extremism and populism are generally not significantly associated with electoral outcomes once hostile rhetoric is accounted for.Conclusion The findings provide evidence that hostile campaign rhetoric is electorally disadvantageous on average, challenging the view that negative campaigning is strategically beneficial. While causal interpretation remains limited, the results suggest that candidates may overuse incivility due to misperceptions, incentives, or behavioral biases. Overall, the study highlights the potential electoral advantages of more civil and positive campaign strategies.
Objective The goal of this project is to understand if the practice of judge shopping-strategically filing federal lawsuits to increase the likelihood of a favorable judge-raises concerns about fair judicial procedures. We examine how this practice reflects a broader loyalty-fairness trade-off in public evaluations of legal institutions, and the potential venues for this practice.Method We conduct a unique preregistered survey experiment to understand the public's reactions to this practice. We also identify geographic opportunities for judge shopping based off of the presence of single-judge divisions.Results We find that the public broadly dislikes judge shopping: it increases support for reform, perceptions of politicization, and perceived threats to rights. However, reactions depend on partisan context. When the out-party engages in judge shopping, respondents find it unfair and political; when the in-party does so, fairness concerns recede. Also, prior to Trump v. CASA (2025), liberals and conservatives had relatively equal access to single-judge divisions, which provides context for public attitudes.Conclusion Overall, our results show that even nonjudicial behavior shapes court perceptions, and fairness concerns are applied instrumentally.
Background The Dobbs v. Jackson decision radically shifted US abortion policy. This study examines how public attitudes toward state and federal government involvement in abortion regulation evolved surrounding this ruling.Methods Using a mixed-methods approach, we first analyzed survey (N = 1583) and interview data (n = 24) collected in 2021, examining people's views on government involvement in abortion (Study 1). We then used a longitudinal survey (N = 647) collected before and after the Dobbs decision (Study 2) to assess how Dobbs influenced attitudes toward federal and state roles in abortion regulation and predictors of attitude change.Results Study 1 shows that slightly more participants favored less government involvement than more, and qualitative findings indicate that these respondents largely expressed more permissive attitudes toward legal abortion. Conversely, references to more government involvement came from respondents who favored either increased abortion restrictions or stronger abortion protections. Study 2 findings demonstrate that after Dobbs, people indicated later weeks' gestation limits at both federal and state levels than before Dobbs, with more conservative sub-groups driving this trend.Conclusion Taken together, our findings highlight the complexity of abortion attitudes in a shifting legislative landscape, where post-Dobbs state restrictions may reflect a growing disconnect between public attitudes and abortion policy.
Objective High-profile cases such as the 2022 drinking water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, along with numerous ongoing wastewater violations in Alabama and elsewhere, raise persistent environmental justice concerns. Despite nearly $40 billion allocated for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure under the 2021 Infrastructure Act, states vary in their ability and willingness to serve historically underserved communities. This study aims to assess the extent to which regions are affected by substandard drinking water and to examine the socio-economic, political, and water system factors associated with these conditions.Method The study analyzes county-level socio-economic, political, and water system data. It maps drinking water and wastewater violations, identifies counties with violation hotspots, and examines changes in community characteristics in these counties over time to understand patterns of regulatory noncompliance and monitoring.Results The analysis finds that race and health insurance coverage are associated with drinking water health violations. Contrary to common assumptions, higher income and education levels are also linked to increased health violations, likely reflecting stronger monitoring and reporting. Violations are more closely tracked in counties with larger populations and higher levels of political engagement. Additionally, groundwater systems experience more violations than surface water systems, suggesting differences in monitoring practices and regulatory compliance based on water system type.
Objective The goal of this project is to test the effectiveness of various get-out-the-vote (GOTV) strategies on college students' propensity to vote in state and local elections.Methods We conduct a field experiment testing different types of GOTV activities at a large public university during a low salience local election. Undergraduate classes were randomly assigned to receive a short peer-led voting presentation, emails with voting information, or no contact.Results We verified voting using the state voter file and found that students who received an in-person presentation were 11 percentage points more likely to vote than those who received no voting encouragement from the study. We did not observe a statistically significant effect from email encouragement.Conclusion Our findings are consistent with prior literature on voter mobilization and suggest that low cost GOTV efforts, such as email campaigns, are not likely to be effective at driving student turnout.
Objective This study examines how democratization pathways shape patterns of protest participation in new democracies, with a particular focus on the long-term effects of mass mobilization during regime transitions.Methods Using harmonized survey data from 28 third-wave democracies and country-level indicators from the V-Dem dataset, this study employs multilevel logistic regression models to assess how individual-level attitudes and macro-level democratization pathways jointly influence protest participation.Results The findings show that democratic duration is negatively associated with protest participation on average. However, this relationship varies by democratization pathway. In countries that experienced large-scale mass mobilization during democratization, protest participation increases over time, and democratic dissatisfaction is more likely to translate into protest. These patterns suggest that mobilization legacies shape how citizens perceive and engage in protest.Conclusion The study demonstrates that protest in new democracies is not merely a function of institutional development but is deeply conditioned by the historical processes through which democracy emerged. Mobilizational transitions leave enduring legacies that embed protest as a legitimate and effective form of political participation.
Objective This study examines whether political violence affects Americans' commitment to democratic participation. It theorizes that political violence undermines citizens' commitment to core democratic behaviors. However, neighborhood social cohesion mitigates the effect of political violence on reduced democratic participation.Methods The study employs an original online survey experiment of US residents that exposes treated subjects to information showing that political violence is increasing in the United States. It then measures subjects' commitment to core democratic participatory behaviors. Treatment exposure is also interacted with an index measuring neighborhood social cohesion to test for moderation effects using ordinary least squares estimations. Demographic and attitudinal confounders are also considered in the analysis.Results The findings reveal that subjects treated with information showing that political violence is increasing in the United States are around 5.1% less likely to commit to democratic participation, compared with control group subjects. However, treated subjects from socially cohesive neighborhoods are around 162% more likely to respond to increased political violence by continuing to commit to democratic political participation.Conclusion The study illustrates how critical neighborhood social cohesion is to the preservation of democracy in an environment where political violence has become more ubiquitous, salient, and normalized.
Objective This analysis provides new cross-national evidence to bear on longstanding theoretical tensions between treadmill of production theory and ecological modernization theory/environmental Kuznets curve over the economic development-environment relationship.Methods I adjudicate between these competing theories using fixed effects panel regression models.Results Statistical analyses support ecological modernization theory and the environmental Kuznets curve. Carbon emissions rise with economic development up to about US$43,700 GDP per capita, after which they begin to decline.Conclusion I conclude the analysis with a discussion of the practical implications of the observed statistical relationships for the literature and climate change policy.
