Osmanthus (Oleaceae) is an economically and culturally important genus. The three montane Osmanthus species examined here are Chinese endemics centered in Southwest China and provide a system to examine climate-change responses and species-specific conservation. Using 136 environmentally matched occurrence records (49 O. delavayi , 46 O. yunnanensis , and 41 O. serrulatus ), we applied an optimized MaxEnt framework integrating climatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors to model habitat suitability across paleoclimatic, current, and future periods. Temperature-related predictors dominated all three models, but their relative importance and model-inferred suitable ranges differed among species. Temperature seasonality (bio4) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were repeatedly influential, while isothermality (bio3) was especially important for O. delavayi and precipitation seasonality (bio15) for O. serrulatus . Soil variables contributed less overall but further differentiated suitability near climatic range margins. Paleoclimatic projections also differed, with O. serrulatus following a trajectory that contrasts with those of O. delavayi and O. yunnanensis . Under the selected BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model (GCM) and three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), modeled suitable area declined by up to 90% for O. delavayi by the 2090s under SSP5-8.5 and by up to 34% for O. yunnanensis by the 2090s under SSP2-4.5, whereas O. serrulatus showed pathway-dependent contraction and expansion. Suitability centroids for O. delavayi and O. yunnanensis shifted mainly northward or northwestward, whereas that of O. serrulatus shifted mainly westward. Only 3.86–7.08% of current modeled suitable area fell within protected areas. These contrasts support species-specific priorities: protecting persistent high-elevation cores of O. delavayi , monitoring spatial discontinuity across the broader modeled suitable range of O. yunnanensis , and strengthening in situ protection of the restricted humid montane habitats of O. serrulatus .
The Chinese Pangolin, Manis pentadactyla , is a Critically Endangered mammal associated with forested landscapes in southern China. We used 461 field-based occurrence records and six bioclimatic predictors to model its relative climatic suitability in Guangdong Province. An optimized MaxEnt model was evaluated by spatial block validation (training AUC = 0.9116; validation AUC = 0.7731) and projected separately under three global climate models (GCMs) for SSP245 and SSP585 in 2081–2100. Predictions were then averaged within each scenario. At equal weight per 5-km grid × atlas-derived forest-type unit, mean suitability in coniferous forest areas declined from 0.2616 (Current) to 0.0289 (SSP245) and 0.0066 (SSP585); corresponding broad-leaved forest means declined from 0.2381 to 0.0525 and 0.0146. The descriptive broad-leaved-minus-coniferous contrast in mean change was 0.0470 under SSP245 and 0.0316 under SSP585. Both forest strata had lower projected suitability, but reliable inferential intervals for their difference were not established. Environmental predictors exceeded current calibration ranges across substantial areas, particularly under SSP585, so the magnitude and spatial pattern of future changes require caution. These projections concern relative climatic suitability in areas classified by the atlas-derived forest layer, not future forest composition, occurrence probability, or habitat quality.
The conservation value of forest fragments is highly dependent on the internal habitat quality and functional connectivity. Biological corridors are widely used to mitigate fragmentation, but their efficacy for many arthropod groups, including harvestmen, remains understudied in fine-scale agricultural landscapes. We assessed how microclimatic and vegetation structural conditions influenced ground-living harvestman (Opiliones) assemblages in the protected floodplain forest fragment Jarovská bažantnica (Slovakia) and in adjacent linear habitats of varying width that could potentially serve as biological corridors. A total of 3,067 individuals representing 11 species were captured. Multivariate ordination revealed that surface air temperature was the sole significant predictor structuring overall assemblage composition, segregating xero-tolerant species in warmer microsites from moisture-dependent species in cooler microsites. Coverage-standardised species richness (Hill q = 0) increased significantly with higher tree-layer cover and decreased with increasing minimum surface temperature. Effective Shannon diversity (Hill q = 1) was positively associated with litter depth and negatively with increasing mean surface temperature. Activity-density, expressed as captures per trap-day, decreased with increasing soil moisture. Amongst the three linear habitats examined, the widest corridor (15 m) supported the highest coverage-standardised richness and effective diversity, whereas 5 m and 10 m elements exhibited lower values. The 15 m element also most closely resembled forest-interior conditions in terms of vegetation structure and microclimate and observed effective diversity. Overall, our results indicate that harvestman assemblages in this fragmented landscape are primarily associated with fine-scale microclimatic and vegetation-structural conditions. Wider and structurally complex linear habitats may provide more suitable conditions for forest associated harvestmen. However, because our study is limited to a single forest fragment and only one linear habitat represented each width, these findings should be interpreted as site-specific patterns rather than general evidence of corridor effectiveness or a minimum functional width.
Tropical montane endemics are among the taxa most threatened by climate change, yet quantitative assessments of their past and future range dynamics remain scarce. Here we present the first ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) assessment for Pinus krempfii , an Endangered flat-needle pine endemic to the Central Highlands of Vietnam, integrating seven algorithms, eight uncorrelated bioclimatic variables, five CMIP6 global circulation models and two emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0), with hindcasting to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21,000 yr BP). Our results reveal that suitable habitat has already contracted by ~68% from the LGM to the present and is projected to decline by a further 57.6% (SSP1-2.6) to 71.1% (SSP3-7.0) by the 2070s, with some GCMs projecting near-complete habitat loss. Temperature seasonality (bio4) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) emerged as the primary climatic determinants, highlighting the species’ sensitivity to both thermal variability and cold-season regimes. The median elevation of suitable habitat rose from 933 m (LGM) to 1,304 m (present) and is projected to reach 1,490–1,528 m by the 2070s, a ~600 m upslope shift since the LGM. Critically, approximately 40% of current suitable habitat falls within existing protected areas, and the Lang Biang Plateau and Chu Yang Sin massifs are identified as persistent climate refugia under all future scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that narrow-range tropical conifers can face compound extinction risk from both post-glacial legacy and anthropogenic warming, that protected-area networks can partially buffer this threat, and that multi-GCM ensemble SDMs are essential for capturing the inter-model uncertainty in conservation planning. To prevent further range loss, we recommend expanding protected areas in the Lang Biang and Chu Yang Sin massifs and implementing assisted migration strategies for this conservation-dependent species.
Three marine protected areas, i.e., Borkum Reef Ground, Sylt Outer Reef, and Dogger Bank, have been established within the European NATURA 2000 program in the German Exclusive Economic Zone of the North Sea. Within them, we analysed the effect of the varying impact of mobile bottom-contact fishing on infauna communities in selected focus areas as a baseline study prior to the exclusion of mobile bottom-contact fishing since 2023. The three focus areas varied significantly in sediment composition and depth. The mobile bottom-contact fishing intensity was lowest at Borkum Reef Ground, but revealed decreasing gradients at Sylt Outer Reef and Dogger Bank. The infauna communities in the three focus areas were significantly different. Gradients in sediment composition, e.g. sand, mud, gravel and shell contents, revealed significant relationships with the infauna communities in the three areas. But on a small spatial scale also the gradients of mobile bottom-contact fishing intensity correlated significantly with the variations of the infauna communities at Sylt Outer Reef and Dogger Bank. The common agreement of the European Commission for the exclusion of mobile bottom-contact fishing in parts of Borkum Reef Ground and Sylt Outer Reef since 2023 and of Dogger Bank since 2025 will provide the opportunity to study the recovery of the infauna communities in these areas from mobile bottom-contact fishing in future.
