Political trust is fundamental to the functioning of democracies, and its systematic erosion through populism, denialism and beliefs in conspiracy theories poses a significant threat to political stability. This research addresses this issue by proposing a novel analytical model that examines how populist attitudes contribute to lack of trust in the political system, with serial mediation through citizens’ endorsement of denialism and belief in conspiracy theories. Using a cross-national representative survey conducted in Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom (N = 3005), we tested this model through a series of Structural Equation Models with latent variables. The results provided strong empirical support for the proposed mediation process across the sample and within each country. The more strongly citizens held populist attitudes, the more likely they were to hold denialist attitudes, which in turn increased their belief in conspiracy theories and decreased their trust in the political system. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of the existing literature and emphasize the critical role of politically motivated, interconnected populist narratives in undermining democratic institutions.
Research on youth has increased tremendously over the past decades, urging the need to share insights and best practices on how to successfully reach youth and include them in surveys. One of the most suitable sites for reaching youth is the school. However, schools are very often requested to participate in various studies, limiting them in their ability to participate in research on top of their regular tasks. In this research note we therefore share key insights on how to minimize the burden for schools and maximize gains for both schools and researchers. Additionally, this research note aims to help researchers familiarize themselves with the process of data collection among youth, the resources it requires and the many pitfalls it might entail in terms of potential delays: an essential step before applying for research funding. The insights and considerations in this research note are based on experiences from three large-scale projects that (have) collect(ed) survey data on youth through secondary schools: the Dutch Adolescent Panel on Democratic Values (DAPDV), the Finnish Education, Political Efficacy and Informed Citizenship (EPIC) project and the Belgian Civic and Intercultural Competences (CIC) project. In sum, the underlying principle of our recommendations is to balance what researchers requires from schools and what researchers give them: limit the amount of work for schools and make it as easy as possible for them to participate. It is also highly recommended to offer something in return to the school that is genuinely valuable for them.
This study examines the presence of opportunistic electoral cycles in public-sector employment in Türkiye. Using a quarterly dataset spanning from 2007q1 to 2024q1, we employ dynamic Generalized Least Squares models utilizing the growth rates of variables across short-term and medium-term pre-election periods. We find a highly significant, yet structurally heterogeneous, surge in public employment prior to elections. While permanent public sector civil servants remain largely unaffected due to rigid bureaucratic constraints, incumbent politicians strategically manipulate flexible peripheral contracts. The electoral expansion is overwhelmingly driven by temporary public workers, exhibiting an extraordinary growth in both time horizons. The consistent magnitude across these periods indicates that opportunistic hiring is a deliberate, ongoing strategy aimed at bypassing administrative delays and enhancing voter reciprocity. Ultimately, these findings demonstrate how core institutional rigidities shift political patronage toward less regulated, temporary employment categories.
Voting is a cornerstone of democratic legitimacy, yet surveys often overestimate electoral participation. One explanation for this discrepancy is social desirability bias (SDB), whereby respondents overreport their intentions to vote to align with democratic norms. We use a list experiment to examine the extent to which citizens misreport their intention to abstain from voting. The study draws on a probability-based sample of Finnish citizens ( N = 655 ) and replicates the analysis in a convenience sample ( N = 1276 ) in the context of the 2024 European Parliament election. In the probability-based sample, 18.8
Populist far-right parties are often associated with economically insecure, lower-educated men from working- and lower-middle-class backgrounds. Yet immigrants and their descendants may also express support for such parties despite being frequent targets of exclusionary rhetoric. Focusing on the Netherlands, this article examines how third-generation Turkish-Dutch participants develop favorable narratives toward the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) and its leader, Geert Wilders. Drawing on nine theoretically selected cases from a broader set of 60 narrative interviews conducted between November 2023 and April 2024, the analysis explores how participants justify these evaluations and reconcile them with identities historically targeted by far-right discourse. Their narratives were grounded less in broad ideological identification than in selective, issue-based support. Three domains were particularly salient: economic concerns, LGBTI+ issues, and attitudes toward newly arrived migrants. Across these domains, participants reconciled support and identity through pragmatic prioritization of everyday concerns, selective value convergence, and boundary-making between settled and newly arrived migrants. Rather than indicating a broader electoral realignment, these narratives show how support for far-right actors may remain partial, conditional, and distinct from voting behavior. The article contributes to debates on immigrant political behavior and minority engagement with the radical right by demonstrating how issue-specific reasoning can coexist with salient ethnic and religious identities.
