The rapid proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping labor markets globally, yet robust evidence on its impact remains scarce for nonWestern economies, particularly following the mass adoption of generative AI and large language models. This paper provides the first granular analysis of the evolution of demand for AI skills in the Russian labor market from 2021 to 2025. Leveraging a unique dataset of over 700,000 online job postings, we employ natural language processing and empirical modeling to quantify the diffusion of AI skills and their associated wage returns. While AI skills remain niche in less than 3% of job postings, the demand shows a significant upward trend especially in high-tech industries. Also, we document a sharp decline in the wage “over-premium” for AI skills, from 31.8% in 2022 to 11.8% in 2025, suggesting a market stabilization. We find no evidence of a labor substitution effect; instead, our results point to a strong complementarity effect, where AI skills augment the value of analytical and managerial competencies, especially in non-IT occupations. This study contributes to the literature by providing novel evidence from a major emerging economy during the generative AI boom and challenges the job polarization narrative, suggesting a dominant scenario of “soft complementarity” between AI and human labor.
The article examines the structure of consumer demand among Russian households using a two-stage Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. The model assumes that households allocate their consumption expenditures in two stages. First, they distribute total spending across three broad product groups — food, non-food goods, and services — and then allocate expenditures across more detailed categories within each group. The study estimates elasticities for all aggregate and disaggregated product groups. Overall, the results are consistent with theoretical expectations. Tourism, alcohol, automobiles, and eating out are classified as “luxury goods”, whereas most food and non-food items, as well as basic services, fall into the category of “necessities”. The analysis also identifies products with anomalously low income elasticities, indicating their essential nature and the weak dependence of demand for these goods on households’ current level of well-being. The article shows that, given this structure of consumption, the model parameters are stable, while in the consumption of non-food goods and services the income effect dominates. In addition, for each food product, the study examines the effect of a price increase on the prices of substitute goods, decomposing this response into income and substitution effects. Three types of reactions are identified: local substitution amid an overall contraction of expenditures, weak adaptation dominated by the income effect, and more complex interrelations involving elements of substitution. Finally, the article develops a scenario-based allocation of additional consumer expenditures that takes into account the macro-level objectives of public policy.
The article presents the methodology and results of the assessment of the impact of climate risks on the loss ratio of Russian insurance companies on the 2030 horizon based on the analysis and mathematical modeling of the expert opinions and statistical data published by scientific institutes of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia. It is expected that in the worst-case scenario, loss ratio of insurance operations for basic types of insurance may increase by 18.15 p. p. only due to the influence of climate risks. The diversity of the expected increase of the loss ratio is not the same for different classes of insurance: in agricultural insurance it may increase by 44.6 p. p.; in motor casco insurance — by 23.3 p. p.; in householders insurance — by 20.8 p. p.; in life insurance, accident insurance and voluntary medical insurance — from 11.0 to 19.4 p. p.
This paper examines the survival determinants of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Russia, drawing on data covering 5.22 million legal entities that combine the Federal Tax Service’s SME register, the Russian Financial Statements Database (RFSD), and the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (EGRUL) records on ownership and governance. We distinguish four modes of discontinuation: reorganization, probable bankruptcy, removal from the register, and other forms of liquidation. Cox proportional hazards models yield two principal findings. First, the apparent survival advantage of small and mediumsized firms relative to micro-enterprises vanishes — and indeed reverses — once financial performance and ownership structure are controlled for, indicating that what is commonly attributed to size in fact reflects specific organizational characteristics. Second, the four exit scenarios are driven by substantively different factors: bankruptcy is primarily associated with financial performance (ROA), whereas reorganization is linked to affiliation with a corporate group. The effect of the limited liability company (OOO) legal form likewise changes sign once corporate governance variables are included in the specification.
This paper analyzes the informational value and predictive power of retail investor sentiment, formed by news flows and social media publications, for the dynamics of the Russian stock market. The aim of the study is to assess the informational value and predictive power of sentiment indicators, calculated using the FinBERT model, for key stock market indicators: stock returns, trading volume, volatility, and the MOEX Russia Index. The empirical dataset includes data on 925 companies listed on the Moscow Exchange from 2015 to 2024, as well as messages from popular financial Telegram channels. Textual sentiment analysis and user visual reactions (emojis) were employed to measure sentiment, from which proxy variables were constructed. Hypothesis testing was conducted using gradient boosting models and vector autoregression (VAR), controlling for macroeconomic and financial variables. The results indicate that investor sentiment is significantly associated with market dynamics, with the strongest effect on trading volumes and the returns of low-capitalization companies. We find that negative sentiment has a more pronounced effect than positive sentiment. The proposed machine learning models, which incorporate sentiment proxy variables, outperformed classical econometric approaches in forecasting accuracy. Model interpretation using Shapley values helped identify the key sentiment factors. Event study analysis revealed the dual nature of sentiment: despite systematically improving the quality of shortterm forecasts (predictive value), there is no significant post-event market reaction to sentiment shocks, and in cases with borderline effects, a pronounced pre-trend in market indicators is observed. This indicates that news sentiment acts primarily as a reactive indicator, promptly reflecting processes already underway, rather than an independent causal factor in market dynamics. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for behavioral factors in investment analysis and can enhance the accuracy of predictive models.
Combining leisure with other activities reflects “overlapping consumption”, which must be taken into account for a reliable assessment of the population’s socioeconomic behavior. The paper analyzes the patterns of overlapping leisure consumption in contemporary Russian society, using the data from the HSE academic research project “Economic Behavior of Households”. The authors estimate the prevalence and the volume of overlapping leisure consumption for specific types of everyday activities, identify the sociodemographic characteristics of such consumption, and describe the relationship between the volume of overlapping leisure consumption and subjective time deprivation. The empirical analysis shows that the share of overlapping time within leisure varies considerably across activities. For the Internet, television, and reading, this share accounts for about one-third of the total time, whereas for radio and music it represents the vast majority.
The article examines the institutional adaptation of Russian exchange institutions under limit regimes — war and a sanctions-induced infrastructural rupture — when the policy priority shifts from competitive price discovery to preserving settlement continuity, collateral valuation, and the controllability of intermediaries’ balance sheets. The main comparison covers 1913—1919 and 2021—2026, while the 1998 Russian crisis is used as a control episode to test the limits of the “financial fortress” concept. The paper argues that the 1918 “grey market” was not an analogue of today’s over-the-counter segment but a symptom of the collapse of public price formation after the dismantling of private property rights and the repudiation of the previous debt order. By contrast, the post-2022 trajectory unfolded under the preservation of private property, corporate legal continuity, and the rights of domestic investors. Consequently, a “financial fortress” is defined not merely as technological segregation and a sovereign-debt anchor, but as a coordinated regime combining legal continuity of ownership rights, macroeconomic discipline, national settlement infrastructure, segmentation of the external perimeter, and a domestic investor base.
The article presents the results of a study examining the relationship between time and monetary expenditures among Russian households across different spheres of consumption. Drawing on data from a nationwide population survey combining questionnaire-based information with time-use diaries, the study demonstrates that, depending on the specific sphere of consumption, time and money may function either as complements or as substitutes. An example of complementarity is investment in children, where adult household members predominantly report both financial expenditures and time spent with children. By contrast, charitable activities represent a case of substitution, as the share of respondents reporting monetary contributions substantially exceeds the share indicating time expenditures. At the same time, variations in the relationship between time and money are determined not only by the sphere of expenditure itself, but also by the material well-being of households. More affluent Russians possess broader opportunities to substitute monetary expenditures for time expenditures, however, they do not resort to such substitution uniformly across all domains. The analysis of the scale of time and monetary expenditures suggests that the population is differentiated not only by material status. An equally important factor shaping these differences is the stage of the individual and family life cycle, which influences not only the principal directions of expenditure, but also the extent to which time and money function as complementary or substitutive resources.
This article examines the phenomenon of the “attitude—behavior gap” — the discrepancy between environmental concern and actual individual behavior, using the example of five consumer practices among urban residents in Russia. The aim of the work is to empirically assess the scale of this discrepancy and to identify socio-demographic, psychological, and behavioral factors that determine it. The empirical basis is data from the online survey “Economic behavior of households”, which represents urban population of Russia with internet access, aged 18 and over. Through a series of multinominal logistic regressions, the study has found that despite the high level of environmental concern among urban Russians, engagement in specific practices remains low and selective. The influence of sociodemographic factors was mixed: of the significant predictors, age of 25—44 consistently increased the odds of a gap, while family income, education, and psychological distress were significant only for certain practices. A positive association was found between news consumption and environmental engagement; however, both traditional and new media were associated with inconsistent bridging the gap across different practices. To promote actions in the field of environmentally conscious consumption, it is necessary to reduce behavioral barriers and develop practical competencies among the population.
The paper analyzes the specifics of status perception and its reflection in the consumption patterns among Russians belonging to the top decile of the income distribution. The study draws on data from a special survey conducted within the framework of the HSE University project “Economic Behaviour of Households”. A comparison of perceptions regarding status-signaling goods and services with actual consumption practices shows that the relationship between the perception of certain goods or services as markers of high status and their actual consumption is weak. Instead, consumption priorities are shaped more by the logic of expanding life opportunities and maintaining one’s achieved social standing rather than by the logic of demonstrating status. This is supported by evidence that, in a hypothetical scenario of income growth, additional resources would be allocated mainly to improving the quality of consumption, as well as to savings and investments, while in the event of income decline expenditures on luxury goods would be reduced first, indicating their high-income elasticity. Perceptions of status do influence the choice of specific goods and services, but they do not determine the overall allocation of spending. Overall, the findings suggest that high-income Russians tend to engage in nonconspicuous forms of status consumption — aimed at preserving their social position rather than signaling it externally. Given the structure of income sources in this group — with labor income predominating over capital income — the observed consumption patterns can be interpreted as a rational strategy for maintaining and reproducing the achieved standard of living under conditions of limited autonomy from the labor market and associated uncertainty about future socio-economic status. The observed differences in the perception of status markers and actual consumption patterns also reflect variations in lifestyle. Similar traits have been documented in studies of comparable high-income groups in Western countries.
The paper aims to assess the magnitude of financial fragility of Russians defined as the inability to cope with possible unexpected financial difficulties caused by a significant decrease in income or by large unforeseen expenses. The methodology includes three main indicators: (1) a broad definition — lack of liquid savings or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (2) a narrow definition — lack of liquid savings combined with a low subjective assessment of one’s financial situation or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (3) an assessment of confidence in their households’ ability to access a large sum of money to cover unexpected expenses in the next month. The database used is the results of seven waves of the all-Russian survey “Economic behavior of households”, covering the Russian population aged 18 and older and implemented at the HSE University from June 2023 to October—November 2025. The sample size for each wave was at least 6,000 people. Using the broad definition, the share of financially unstable households was 56.4%—65.0%, using the narrow definition — 20.5%—23.3%, and subjective assessment — 46.6%—48.5%. Analysis of the panel component revealed that 43.8% of respondents (by the broad definition) and 7.1% (by the narrow definition) were constantly in a state of financial fragility. The transition from financial fragility to resilience was most often associated with spending savings, and the exit from it was associated with exiting a state of over-indebtedness.
When making monetary policy decisions, the Bank of Russia relies on a wide range of information about the state of the economy and the financial sector, including the impact of monetary conditions on consumption and investment. Information on household savings is important in terms of its influence on the formation of consumer or saving sentiment among the population. The household savings rate can be used to assess saving behavior. Studying households’ propensity to save from the perspective of behavioral motives makes it possible not only to evaluate preferences regarding the liquidity of financial products, but also to identify key patterns in responses to economic shocks. The results of a factor analysis of household saving motives are presented, on the basis of which a decomposition of the savings rate is carried out. The relationship between the savings rate and changes in the Bank of Russia’s key policy rate is modeled.
In Russia, as in the rest of the world, there has been an increase in the prevalence of both eating out and ordering ready-made meals in recent years. The article analyzes the practices of eating out and consuming ready-made meals in modern Russia. The empirical basis of the study consists of data obtained from two sample surveys of the Russian population conducted by the HSE University in 2024: the fourth wave of the sample survey of the population “Economic behavior of households” and the third wave of a special sample survey of highincome Russians. The findings of this study indicate that active inclusion in eating out practices among the general population is driven by two main opposing motives: “excess time”, when visiting public catering establishments becomes a form of leisure (typical primarily for students), and “time deficit”, when eating out or consuming ready-made meals through delivery replaces cooking, i.e., part of the housework is outsourced (particularly prevalent among middle-aged individuals with substantial workloads, both in the labour market and in their familial responsibilities, as well as among high-income groups).
This article examines the phenomenon of the "attitude-behavior gap" - the discrepancy between environmental concern and actual individual behavior, using the example of five consumer practices among urban residents in Russia. The aim of the work is to empirically assess the scale of this discrepancy and to identify socio-demographic, psychological, and behavioral factors that determine it. The empirical basis is data from the online survey "Economic behavior of households", which represents urban population of Russia with internet access, aged 18 and over. Through a series of multinominal logistic regressions, the study has found that despite the high level of environmental concern among urban Russians, engagement in specific practices remains low and selective. The influence of sociodemographic factors was mixed: of the significant predic-tors, age of 25-44 consistently increased the odds of a gap, while family income, education, and psychological distress were significant only for certain practices. A positive association was found between news consumption and environmental engagement; however, both traditional and new media were associated with inconsistent bridging the gap across different practices. To promote actions in the field of environmentally conscious consumption, it is necessary to reduce behavioral barriers and develop practical competencies among the population.
The article is devoted to the analysis of the economic profile of the highincome population in Russia, a group that, despite its status as a significant player in the economy, which largely determines the demand for goods and services, as well as setting consumer trends, remains understudied. This is a global scientific lacuna that is particularly relevant in the Russian context, given the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of wealth among the most affluent households. Studying high-income groups is an important task for the development of monetary and fiscal programs and policies. The relevance of this study lies in the need to identify the economic profile of the upper decile in Russia as a separate category of consumers in the economy. The empirical basis of the study is a set of primary data collected by the authors as part of a separate survey of the upper decile income group, which is part of the monitoring studies of the Economic Behavior of Households project at the Higher School of Economics (HSE). The scientific novelty of the study lies in the creation of a socio-economic profile of the upper decile households and the identification of differentiated strategies for saving and consumer behavior among this group. The stratification factor within this cohort is not only the number of disposable resources, but also the structure of assets and the type of sources of passive income. The analysis identifies two behavioral models of high-income households: the “rentier” and “depositor” strategies. The former is characterized by a predominant concentration of physical assets in the form of real estate, while the latter involves the use of financial instruments and a higher level of education. The transition to a diversified portfolio that combines both types of income is statistically associated with an increase in overall wealth and the stage of the respondents’ life cycle. The results obtained allow us to refine our understanding of the structure of Russian wealth and the behavioral incentives of the group that forms the country’s main investment and consumer potential.
The article examines personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in Russia during 2005—2023. The aim of the study is to identify the dynamic and structural features of Russian PCE. The analysis covers both volume and price changes in total PCE and PCE of specific product groups. The study period is divided into several phases, each characterized by different patterns of household consumption. A paradox of Russian consumption is highlighted: despite the doubling of total volume of per capita PCE over the past 20 years, its structure, including the share of food expenditures, has remained virtually unchanged. The paradox is explained by uneven volume and price changes of different product groups. Using Rosstat statistics, the article examines differences in the structure of consumer expenditures across household deciles since the mid-2000s. The approach to refining Rosstat data on the inequality of household expenditures by decile groups is described; a comparison of adjusted and official data on the structure of household consumption by decile groups in 2023 is presented. Recent tax changes affecting consumer expenditures are also considered. It is shown that the increase in value-added and income tax rates in 2019—2026 has the largest impact on reducing consumption among the top-income households and workers.
This article introduces the special issue of V o p ro s y Ek onomiki , which focuses on household economic behavior. The issue is based on the “Economic behavior of households” project, which has been implemented at the Higher School of Economics since 2023. The project consists of two components: a field component, which involves collecting sociological data, and an analytical component, which analyzes the collected data, systematizes it, generalizes it, and compares it with other data sources. The authors of the article, who are the scientific supervisors of the project, emphasize the relevance and significance of this project in terms of combining economic and sociological aspects. They highlight the state of development of economic and sociological thought, which often remains disconnected from each other. This makes it difficult to view macroeconomic processes from the perspective of consumption. However, in a situation where households’ demand for goods is not clearly defined or predictable, macroeconomists need to have a better understanding of this demand to formulate appropriate programs and policies. The article also emphasizes the importance of collecting microdata on the economic behavior of households, including those with high incomes, to address questions about the future behavior of households if the situation were to change. To make it easier for readers to understand the articles in this special issue, the authors have provided detailed explanations of the data collection methodology, fieldwork specifics, and data composition. Additionally, the project’s microdata are available to researchers, experts, and business associations starting from March 2026.
Drawing on the analysis of the consumer and financial practices of the Russian middle class, this article examines whether these practices represent its inherent characteristics or serve as factors of internal differentiation. Using a multidimensional definition of the middle class based on respondents' income level, education, and occupational status, and relying on data from a specialized survey of the urban middle class, the study shows that its members are distinguished by a higher prevalence of savings and a stronger orientation toward the rational use of financial instruments compared to the general population. In terms of consumption, the middle class also differs by demonstrating higher spending, prioritizing investments in human capital, and expressing greater satisfaction with their consumer capabilities. The findings indicate that the Russian middle class is internally heterogeneous. Four groups of financial service users were identified, differing not only in their engagement with financial practices but also in their consumer orientations. The results suggest that while consumer and financial practices are core traits of the Russian middle class as a whole, they act as drivers of its internal differentiation.
The article presents structural analysis of interregional disparities in labor productivity levels and growth rates across Russia. The study aims to uncover structural foundations of spatial differentiation in labor productivity by compar-ing its static (levels) and dynamic (growth rates) aspects. It examines the roles of industrial specialization, resource allocation efficiency, and intra-industry disparities, and assesses the contribution of these factors to interregional income inequality. The analysis utilizes data on the subject of the Russian Federation for 2010-2023, broken down by economic activity (excluding extractive industries) and adjusted for regional price differentials. The shift-share analysis is employed to decompose the deviation of regional indicators from the national average into sectoral, localization, and regional components. The results reveal a persistent trend toward convergence in labor productivity levels but a growing divergence in growth rates. The factor of sectoral structure diversity contributed in the least to these processes, often promoting regional convergence. The second most influential factor was the concentration of production in regions, reflecting agglomeration effects: it fostered divergence in productivity levels but countered it in growth rates. The most significant influence came from regional differences in within-industry labor productivity. Combinations of shift-share decomposi-tion components define distinct models of labor productivity level and growth formation in the regions. Simulation-based calculations assess the direction and magnitude of structural components' impact on labor productivity growth in shaping interregional inequality in per capita GRP.
The article characterizes the dynamics and relationship between exports and economic growth in China over the past 20—40 years, determines the export elasticity of GDP, analyzes the structure of China’s GDP by expenditure, and assesses the contribution of total commodity and net exports of goods and services to PRC’s economic growth. Net exports occupy a secondary position in the structure of China’s GDP by expenditure compared to domestic consumption and investment. A comparison of GDP and export dynamics reveals the predominant export inelasticity of China’s growth rate and its high resilience to changes in export volumes. The contribution of exports to China’s economic growth is currently inferior to domestic factors of consumer and investment demand, demonstrating a slight increase in its share in recent years to 30—40% of GDP growth. Overall, exports have a positive stimulating effect on economic growth, they are an important element of China’s national expanded reproduction, and increase domestic consumer and investment demand. Exports ensure technological leadership for the country, which is a priority for further economic development. Imports, investment and technology are other important components of China’s economic dependence on external factors that require further analysis.
