Purpose This study aims to develop an expert-informed decision framework for China's province-county context to prioritize psychosocially informed conservation criteria and rank implementable strategies under uncertainty, aligned with rural revitalization objectives. Escalating ecological stress and socio-economic pressures require conservation approaches that connect ecological recovery with cultural continuity, livelihood security, institutional trust and psychosocial well-being.Design/methodology/approach A hierarchical model with 5 criteria and 20 sub-criteria is evaluated using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)/Fuzzy AHP-based weighting to derive criteria priorities; candidate strategies are then assessed using Fuzzy-Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution. The framework combines expert elicitation, pairwise comparison, linguistic strategy ratings and sensitivity analysis to support transparent prioritization.Findings Results indicate that cultural integrity and social cohesion and livelihood resilience dominate the decision space, with youth engagement and identity, fairness and conflict reduction and asset protection emerging as key sub-criteria. The strategy ranking places participatory payments for ecosystem services (PES) with psychosocial support, performance-based eco-compensation hubs and cross-provincial PES with open data at the forefront, supported by digital co-monitoring with rapid grievance and community co-management/heritage safeguards. Sensitivity analysis across alternative weight sets yields stable rankings within the tested cases, strengthening confidence in the internal robustness of the results. Together, the findings outline an actionable conservation portfolio: culturally anchored engagement, asset-security buffers, clear and enforceable rules, verifiable outcome-based finance, transparent data systems and responsive grievance mechanisms.Originality/value The framework enables Chinese policymakers to target high-leverage levers, align budgets with measurable ecosystem services and sustain compliance and well-being across heterogeneous regions while advancing adaptive, equitable ecological stewardship.
Purpose This study aims to investigate how immersive technology integration (ITI) and futures-oriented curriculum design (FOCD) enhance futures literacy (FL) among higher education students in Saudi Arabia, a context undergoing rapid digital transformation under Vision 2030. It further examines the mediating role of student engagement (SE) and the moderating effect of digital readiness (DR), guided by Transformative Learning Theory (TLT). Design/methodology/approach A quantitative research design was adopted. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire from 429 students across five Saudi universities. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with Smart-PLS 4.0 was applied to test direct, mediating and moderating relationships among ITI, FOCD, SE, DR and FL. Findings Both ITI and FOCD significantly enhance FL. SE partially mediates these relationships, underscoring the importance of active learner involvement. DR positively moderates the FOCD–FL relationship, showing that higher digital competence amplifies curriculum innovation, while no moderating effect was observed between ITI and FL. Research limitations/implications The cross-sectional design limits causal inference and the findings are specific to the Saudi higher education sector. Future research should incorporate longitudinal and comparative cross-national studies. Practical implications Universities in Saudi Arabia should expand immersive learning environments, embed futures-oriented curricula and strengthen students’ DR to advance transformative learning in line with Vision 2030. Social implications This study carries important social implications by demonstrating how immersive technologies and futures-oriented curricula can cultivate FL among students, enabling them to anticipate and navigate uncertainty in their personal, professional and civic lives. By fostering critical reflection, adaptive thinking and engagement, higher education contributes to preparing graduates who can actively shape sustainable and resilient societies. In the Saudi Vision 2030 context, enhancing DR and futures-oriented skills supports national transformation while also offering transferable insights for other emerging economies. Originality/value By extending TLT into digitally enhanced, futures-oriented education, this study contributes novel insights from the underexplored Saudi Arabian context. It highlights how immersive environments and curriculum innovation, mediated by engagement and moderated by DR, foster FL in emerging economy higher education systems.
Purpose In response to intensifying climate regulations and rising stakeholder expectations for transparent carbon disclosures, manufacturing firms are increasingly seeking innovative approaches to strengthen their carbon accounting practices. While artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly enhance the accuracy, timeliness and efficiency of carbon accounting, its adoption remains uneven across firms. Prior studies largely focus on isolated technological or regulatory drivers, offering limited insight into how organizational sustainability maturity enables AI adoption. This study aims to examine how environmental, social and governance (ESG) maturity shapes key organizational enablers (i.e. technological readiness [TER], top management support [TMS] and corporate social responsibility [CSR] orientation) and how these enablers, in turn, drive AI-driven carbon accounting innovation in the manufacturing sector. Design/methodology/approach Grounded in an integrated theoretical framework combining the technology-organization-environment perspective, resource-based view (RBV) and institutional theory, this study adopts a quantitative research design. Survey data were collected from top and middle management professionals in manufacturing firms operating across multiple industries. Structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed relationships and mediation effects. Findings The results reveal that ESG maturity plays a foundational role in fostering organizational conditions conducive to AI adoption. Specifically, ESG maturity has a significant positive influence on TER, TMS and CSR orientation. TER and TMS, in turn, significantly drive AI-driven carbon accounting innovation, while the effect of CSR on AI adoption was not significant. These findings indicate that the effects of ESG maturity on AI-driven carbon accounting are transmitted through these organizational mechanisms, highlighting ESG maturity as a strategic capability rather than a peripheral sustainability attribute. Practical implications This study offers actionable insights for managers and policymakers seeking to accelerate the adoption of AI-based carbon accounting systems. Manufacturing firms should view ESG maturity as a strategic investment that strengthens internal readiness, leadership commitment and a responsible organizational culture necessary for successful AI integration. Policymakers and regulators may support this transition by designing ESG-oriented frameworks and incentives that encourage firms to embed advanced digital technologies within their sustainability reporting practices. Originality/value Building on the growing discourse surrounding AI-enabled sustainability practices, this study advances the literature by framing ESG maturity as an enabling mechanism for AI-driven carbon accounting innovation.
PurposeDriven by local, regional and global dynamics, Qatar alongside the Arabian Gulf as a whole has undergone tremendous political and economic shifts resulting in significant social transformations in recent decades. In this context, much attention has been given to economic diversification, educational reforms and regional and global geopolitics. However relatively little focus has been given to cultural shifts, expectations and worldviews of the society undergoing these transformations. This paper aims to explore the case of Qatar guided by strategic foresight methodology. Design/methodology/approachThis paper explores the case of Qatar guided by strategic foresight methodology. FindingsBased on multiple and carefully designed and facilitated focus groups with a wide range of participants, it develops three different future scenarios of social and cultural life in Qatar enriched with causal layered analysis: a preferred future, a worst case and an outlier case. It is followed by specific policy recommendations to support a positive cultural evolution and mitigate potential societal risks in Qatar’s future development. Originality/valueThis study is among the first to apply a strategic foresight framework to social and cultural change in the Arabian Gulf, integrating participatory scenario building with policy analysis to address an underexplored dimension of the region’s transformation.
PurposeThis paper aims to examines the impact of strategic leadership on strategic alliances and strategic learning in technology companies operating in the manufacturing sector in Istanbul. The mediating role of strategic orientation in these relationships is also examined. The reason for working in technology companies in the manufacturing sector is that these companies attach importance to strategic partnerships to stay in the sector in an intensely competitive environment. Design/methodology/approachThe main body of the research consists of employees at the management level of companies in the production sector that have established strategic partnerships in Istanbul. Data were collected from 543 management-level employees in 50 randomly selected companies. Smart PLS 3 application was used for all analyses within the framework of the research. Factors, PLS-SEM path and mediation effect analysis processes, the results of which are presented in the application part, were obtained and presented within this program. FindingsStrategic leadership positively affects both strategic orientation, strategic alliance and strategic learning variables. In addition, strategic orientation positively mediates the relationship between strategic leadership and dependent variables. Research limitations/implicationsSince the data in the research was collected from companies producing technology devices in Istanbul, developing the research model and applying it to different sectors and a wider sample can make a significant contribution to the literature. Thus, more effective results can be obtained. In addition, it is likely that different results will emerge when applied to companies that establish partnerships in the service sector other than the industrial sector. Practical implicationsIt is clear that strategy is of great importance in today’s rapidly developing and changing world. The research provides insight into the importance of strategic leadership and direction to leaders in the manufacturing sector. Companies can leverage these insights to improve their strategic collaborations and learning capabilities, so they can remain competitive in a highly dynamic environment. Originality/valueStrategic leadership can be considered an ideal leadership style that incorporates the positive aspects of other leadership characteristics. In this regard, it is thought that it will be a leadership model that is free from the weaknesses of leadership styles and focuses on establishing the long-term future of the organization. The research is unique in that it focuses on technology companies in the manufacturing sector in Istanbul, a major commercial hub. Valuable empirical evidence is provided about the dynamics of strategic leadership through the lens of strategic orientation and its impact on organizational outcomes.
PurposeUp to the current fall patterns that started at the end of 2021, the real estate market in Hong Kong has developed at such a rapid pace throughout the course of the previous few decades. Therefore, anticipating future property values has become a huge difficulty for both the government and investors. This is because of the current economic climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the real estate price forecasting problem for the Hong Kong market. Design/methodology/approachWithin the scope of this study, the authors use Gaussian process regressions with a range of kernels and basis functions to explore quarterly residential property price indices for Hong Kong from the fourth quarter of 1979 to the first quarter of 2024. The authors make use of cross-validation and Bayesian optimizations to train models and carry out forecasting exercises using estimated models. FindingsOut of sample, the models that were developed were able to accurately predict the price indices from the second quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2024. The relative root mean square error for these models was 0.3080%. Originality/valueIt is possible that these results might be used either on their own or in conjunction with other forecasts to construct assumptions about movements in the residential real estate price indices and perform further policy research.
PurposeThis paper aims to illustrate the challenges faced by efforts to institutionalize participatory foresight as a regular component of policymaking processes in a developing country, based on the analysis of a country case (Peru) where national-level rules and guidelines have incorporated participatory foresight in policymaking and planning processes at the subnational level.Design/methodology/approachExploratory research on the challenges faced when institutionalizing participatory foresight in policy processes, carried out as a case study of two relevant, official experiences at the subnational level in Peru. In-depth interviews, a survey of regional officials and literature review are used.FindingsThere have been significant regulatory advances; national officials seem committed to strengthening participatory foresight; and rules are being applied in regional planning processes and educational policy frameworks. However, the broader institutionalization of participatory foresight in a democratic context is incipient. Significant challenges are found within the operation of the national planning system, which sets rules and guidelines for incorporating participatory foresight, and also pertaining to participatory practices in general and the state-society relationship.Research limitations/implicationsThis exploratory research, while addressing the early stages of institutionalization of participatory foresight in policymaking within a democratic context, sheds light on the types of challenges that should be addressed when designing and implementing policies and rules for expanding such practices in a developing country.Practical implicationsFindings suggest that making participatory foresight viable as a regular practice in policymaking not only requires changes in national planning systems, capacity building in subnational governments and adjustments at the methodological level, but also requires addressing weaknesses in overall participatory practices and state-society links in democratic settings.Social implicationsIn an era of growing dissatisfaction with democracy in Latin America, participatory foresight could offer a way to incorporate citizens' aspirations and knowledge into policymaking. However, it is still not a widespread practice, and there is scarce evidence regarding how to make it work. This research highlights the challenges faced in Peru, and that may be faced when incorporating participatory foresight as policy in other developing countries.Originality/valueIn an era of growing dissatisfaction with democracy in Latin America, participatory foresight could offer a way to incorporate citizens' aspirations and knowledge into policymaking. However, it is still not a widespread practice. Recent academic literature finds that the "evidence base on foresight-use in policy-making is still largely anecdotal" (Reilly-King et al., 2024), and this study provides evidence from an ongoing case that can bring valuable evidence for decision-makers and researchers.
PurposeThis study aims to address the key challenges of traditional foresight methods, including cognitive biases, high costs and the inability to process large-scale textual data under conditions of deep uncertainty. The primary objective is to comprehensively examine and critically analyze how artificial intelligence (AI) can overcome these limitations.Design/methodology/approachThe research method is based on an integrative review approach, which uses inductive thematic analysis of the leading scientific literature to extract and categorize the applications of AI.FindingsThe findings reveal that AI functions as a "computational collaborator" in four complementary roles: a scanner and discoverer for automatically identifying weak signals; a structurer and evaluator for systematically classifying knowledge and validating human judgments; a predictor and opportunity scout for forecasting technological convergences and identifying innovation "white spaces"; and a simulator and creative partner for exploring complex dynamics and enhancing participatory processes.Originality/valueThe main conclusion is the establishment of a new "assistant-driven hybrid foresight" paradigm, wherein the role of the futurist evolves into that of an architect and orchestrator of intelligent systems, requiring new epistemic competencies such as data literacy and prompt engineering.
PurposeThis study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the impact of digital technologies on sustainable manufacturing performance. It focuses on key technologies such as Internet of Things, big data analytics, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, three-dimensional printing, robotics and digital twins, assessing their potential to enhance energy efficiency, reduce waste, optimize resources and improve product lifecycle management. Design/methodology/approachThe research uses a systematic literature review combined with bibliometric analysis. Papers from leading databases were systematically reviewed to identify trends, patterns and gaps in the existing literature on digital technologies in sustainable manufacturing. FindingsThe findings indicate that digital technologies have significant potential to drive sustainable manufacturing performance, particularly in enabling real-time monitoring, analysis and optimization of processes. However, the study also highlights challenges such as high initial costs, data security concerns and the need for workforce upskilling. Originality/valueThis study contributes valuable insights by systematically analyzing the role of digital technologies in sustainable manufacturing. It offers recommendations for future research and practical implications for researchers, practitioners and policymakers, filling a critical gap in the existing literature.
PurposeCitriculture is crucial for its economic and social impact, offering export and job creation potential. The purpose of this paper is to present a prospective study aimed at enhancing strategic planning, prioritizing technologies and innovations and minimizing decision-making uncertainties within the citrus chain’s innovation system. Design/methodology/approachTwo methodologies were used: scenario analysis and the two-round Delphi method, to identify key variables, create future scenarios and prioritize technology and innovation issues for the citrus chain by 2035. FindingsScenario analysis assessed 36 variables using MICMAC, identifying 11 key variables. Based on these, five hypotheses were formulated to define the betting scenario through MACTOR software. The Delphi method involved expert evaluations of 140 topics, leading to the prioritization of 71 topics and technologies, including Industry 4.0, climate change, gene editing, digital imaging and IoT applications. Achieving future objectives and developing these topics necessitate strategies fostering integration and alliances among chain actors. Research limitations/implicationsThe scenario methodology establishes key variables that can change over time. Therefore, it is advisable to continuously review the inclusion of new aspects such as changes in macroeconomic variables, new regulations promoting or governing certain technologies or new environmental considerations. This may necessitate adjusting or refining the proposed scenario. The Delphi method was conducted using a specific number of technologies obtained from previous monitoring and intelligence studies. These technologies may change or need to be supplemented with new priorities in the regions where the sector is part of prioritized agro-industrial chains. Furthermore, it is essential to align with the public policy of each country or region so that the proposed strategies and new projects take these policies into account. This study only went so far as to propose key variables, future objectives, prioritization of stakeholders, a strategic scenario and a list of topics, technologies and innovations that served as input for open innovation challenges and innovation management models. However, further dissemination to all stakeholders in the sector is crucial, as is the concrete formulation of projects for specific calls for proposals from ministries of science, technology and innovation, agriculture, the General Royalties System and other external funding opportunities. Practical implicationsAcademics and researchers will find input for their lines of research, projects, new extension courses, micro-credentials and minors related to priority topics, technologies and innovations. These items will also be a source for new in-depth studies in scientific and technological monitoring. Entrepreneurs, associations, processors and producers will have a valuable platform to establish their strategies and new projects, highlighting future objectives and their potential alignment as an organization. Delphi’s technologies and innovations can now be especially useful in formulating innovation challenges on open innovation platforms or in specific calls for solvers and seekers. At the regional level, the science, technology and innovation system can be revitalized by the clear focus on long-term objectives and high-impact projects that bring together various stakeholders under N-helix models; these models will impact not only the university-industry-government triad but also stakeholders related to societal participation and aspects of sustainability, circular economy and regeneration. Originality/valueThe novelty of this study is the validation through artificial intelligence and natural language processing. Emphasis is placed on implementing strategies to achieve the objectives, realize the future scenario and address priority issues by 2035.
PurposeThe purpose of this research paper is to examine the effects of competitor orientation movements of technology-oriented companies in university technoparks and at the same time to examine the mediation variable effects of both innovation behavior and technology innovation strategy. Design/methodology/approachIn this research, technoparks operating in Istanbul were determined as the population. Surveys were sent via e-mail to enterprises employees working on technology in technoparks (using convenience sampling method), after obtaining the necessary permissions. The prepared scale was sent to 486 employees; 344 responses were made. SEM analyses were performed in SmartPLS software, and the conceptual model was tested. FindingsAs a result of the analysis of the relationships between the variables in the research model, innovation behavior and technology innovation strategy variables are positively affected by competitor orientation as dependent variables and also have positive effects as mediator variables, providing a theoretical contribution. Research limitations/implicationsThe research was conducted by collecting data from technology-oriented companies that continue their activities in the technoparks of universities in Istanbul. A research model needs to be developed for companies in different sectors. It is recommended to contribute to the literature in the future, taking into account the limited situation. Practical implicationsResearch for executives in technology firms highlights that simply monitoring competitors is not enough; this information must be translated into proactive innovation behaviors and formal technology strategies to drive performance improvement. This research suggests that technopark managers should create environments that facilitate competitive intelligence sharing and collaborative innovation to increase the survival rates of established firms. Originality/valueThis research comprehensively examines the complex interplay between competitor orientation, innovation behavior and technology innovation strategy and their impact on firm performance, particularly in the context of technology-oriented companies in technology parks. By identifying innovation behavior and technology innovation strategy as mediators, the authors offer a new perspective and provide new empirical evidence that explains performance outcomes by linking a firm’s external orientation to its internal strategic and behavioral processes.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the results of prioritizing Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) in engineering programs.Design/methodology/approachA technology tree of 179 KETs was constructed and organized into 5 groups. The study applied an expert consultation method, specifically the two-round Delphi method, to analyze advanced materials, energy, advanced information and communication technologies (ICT), clean tech and life science, which are the final technological branches of the KETs. In addition, a literature review on KETs was conducted in the Scopus database using a search equation, resulting in 161 documents. Thirty-two papers related to KETs and engineering education were analyzed using Vantage Point text mining software. Techniques such as Natural Language Processing, cooccurrence matrices and cluster analysis were applied.FindingsIt is recommended to analyze the possibility of integrating the prioritized KETs into the curricula and research priorities of each engineering discipline. In addition, strategies for the alignment or convergence of Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno and Green should be considered to prepare students and stakeholders for the generation of product, service and process innovations involving technological convergence.Originality/valueFifty-four KETs were prioritized in advanced materials, energy, ICT, clean technologies and life sciences. Participation of 107 experts from 7 countries. Emergency Component Application via Vantage Point Text Mining Software 20 new topics/technologies suggested by experts are highlighted. Eighty contributions were received for the question "How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected or will affect engineering education?
PurposeThis paper aims to conceptually analyse the bidirectional relationship between the metaverse and the local development. Design/methodology/approachThe majority of studies on the metaverse concentrate on the micro-level scale, discussing the future technological applications for the different economic sectors, sub-sectors or companies. This conceptual paper undertakes a macro-level standpoint, presenting the key elements for assessing the mutual interaction between the metaverse and the local development through the lens of the sustainability dimensions – society, economy, the environment and policy and governance. FindingsThe paper elaborates on both the positive connections and the potential constraints deriving from the interconnectedness between the metaverse and local development in the context of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this analysis represents one of the first systematic attempts to critically consider the role of the metaverse in local development and vice versa.
PurposeAirports play an essential role in the development of tourism destinations. Medium-sized airports (i.e. those that serve 2,000,000–10,000,000 passengers per year) have their advantages in influencing the development of the countries or regions. This study aims to investigate the competitiveness of mid-sized airport facilities in four Asia-Pacific regions. Design/methodology/approachThis research used a qualitative case study approach and used secondary data to determine the competitiveness of six medium-sized airports. After comparatively analysing the attributes of all six airports, a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis of Macau International Airport was conducted. FindingsResults of the case study indicate that Macau International Airport holds a competitive advantage over the other airports studied, especially in the recent traffic results dimension and market potential dimension. After identifying the SWOT of Macau International Airport, this study offers constructive suggestions on how its competitiveness can be enhanced. Originality/valueMoreover, the academic and practical contributions of this research are significant, as no similar research about the competitiveness of Macau International Airport has been conducted. With the development of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, this research provides a useful guideline for the airport authority and government to enhance the competitiveness of Macau International Airport.
PurposeThis study aims to reconceptualize digital financial inclusion as a dynamic, converging and inclusive transition rather than a static measure of access. Using comparative foresight evidence from Thailand and Vietnam, it investigates how digital finance, human capital and policy frameworks coevolve in shaping sustainable financial ecosystems. By analyzing post-pandemic and post-recovery data, the study seeks to identify distinct diffusion pathways and structural constraints influencing digital financial engagement. The purpose is to generate forward-looking insights for designing resilient, equitable and human-centered digital financial systems in emerging Southeast Asian economies. Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a quantitative research design using two waves of microdata from the World Bank Global Findex Database (2021 / 2022 and 2024). Binary logistic regression is applied to examine the determinants of financial access and digital financial service usage. A comparative framework is adopted to evaluate Thailand’s bank-led digital evolution against Vietnam’s human capital–driven leapfrogging trajectory. The methodological approach integrates structural, behavioral and technological dimensions to generate forward-looking insights into the dynamics of digital financial transformation across both contexts. FindingsThe results reveal two divergent yet complementary pathways. Thailand has transitioned into a “post-access phase,” where account ownership is nearly universal, and the core challenges lie in improving service quality, efficiency and digital financial capability among vulnerable groups. Vietnam is in an “expansion and diffusion phase,” driven by younger cohorts and women who are increasingly bypassing traditional banking through mobile money. These trajectories illustrate a “converging inclusive digital transition,” reflecting the interplay of technological infrastructure, human capital and policy design in driving digital financial inclusion. Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis relies on cross-sectional survey data, which limits causal inference and the ability to track individual behavioral trajectories over time. Country-level institutional nuances and policy interventions may not be fully captured through microdata alone. Nevertheless, the findings highlight structural and behavioral determinants that warrant deeper longitudinal and qualitative exploration. The study highlights the importance of future research examining the dynamic interplay between digital capability, human capital and institutional design in shaping inclusive financial ecosystems across emerging economies. Practical implicationsThe findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen digital financial inclusion. Thailand should prioritize enhancing digital capability among older adults and low-income populations while improving the quality and trustworthiness of digital services. Vietnam should continue leveraging its strong human capital base by expanding Mobile Money infrastructure and reducing access barriers for underserved groups. Both countries can benefit from integrating digital finance into broader development strategies, ensuring that technology diffusion aligns with human-centered financial empowerment. Social implicationsDigital finance holds transformative potential for reducing exclusion and enabling equitable participation in the economy. In Thailand, empowering marginalized groups through deeper engagement with financial services can enhance social mobility and resilience. In Vietnam, ensuring quality and sustainable usage can improve household security and well-being. Comparative insights demonstrate that inclusion is shaped not only by technology but also by cultural, behavioral and social contexts, underscoring the importance of tailored interventions. Originality/valueThis study delivers one of the earliest cross-country foresight analyses of digital financial inclusion in Thailand and Vietnam using post-pandemic Global Findex data. It introduces the concept of a converging inclusive digital transition, offering a forward-looking lens that integrates human capital, technology diffusion and institutional design. By moving beyond single-country approaches, the study contributes original theoretical insight and regionally relevant policy guidance. Its comparative framework advances understanding of how emerging ASEAN economies may chart inclusive digital futures, positioning digital finance as a transformative structural driver of economic participation and social equity.
PurposeThis paper aims to demonstrate a new methodology for retrospectively evaluating certain foresight studies. Specifically, this study proposes using Generative AI (Gen AI) to evaluate foresight studies that modeled future outcomes using morphological analysis (MA). Design/methodology/approachThis paper demonstrates the new methodology by evaluating the Hudson Institute’s 1976 report, The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World. This report used MA to systematically pair four different views of the future, ranging from pessimistic to optimistic, against ten different issues. The author used ChatGPT 4o to perform a vertical analysis to determine which of the four views best matched the current world state. The author then conducted a horizontal analysis to validate the first analysis and quantify the fit of each issue. FindingsThe findings suggest that certain foresight studies using MA can be evaluated quickly using Gen AI. In particular, ChatGPT 4o identified the Hudson Institute’s second-most-pessimistic scenario as the best match to the current world state. A horizontal analysis confirmed the second-most-pessimistic scenario was the best fit at 88%; the most optimistic scenario was the worst fit at 40%. Originality/valueThe author believes this work has novel implications for foresight evaluation, a relatively undeveloped subfield of future studies. First, evaluating other historical foresight reports using the methodology can potentially help develop a body of knowledge for evaluators. Second, given the ease of evaluation using these methods, the author believes foresight products structured using MA will allow future AI systems to more readily interpret them.
PurposeThis paper deals with the forecasting application of runs analysis based methods in the field of active investments' alpha. This study aims to use different models exploiting possible momentum and persistence in the active investments' returns, specifically in relation to the prominent field of their (possible) outperformance.Design/methodology/approachGathering a large set of managed assets from the US large-cap equity segment, this study examined a variety of simple and more complicated models, from unpretentious probability, to the full-scale runs analysis approach. These models were evaluated on monthly and yearly data, with simulation of their performance on 30 years period also carried out. The study then tested the results for significant differences, as well as separately evaluated them for individual types of investments and equity strategies (styles).FindingsSimpler forecasting methods provided generally more efficient outcomes. Choosing simply investments with the highest past alpha (simple strategy), highest ratio of positive alpha in the past (opportunistic strategy) or in the given stadium of the market cycle (market strategy) would result in a low relative error, while having limited data and computational requirements. The runs analysis itself performed less favorably, being on one hand quite successful in the alpha direction forecast, but subpar when it comes to average return.Originality/valueThe results also point to short-term persistence in surveyed investments performance, indicating a yearly interval as optimum for portfolio reallocation. Overall, this outcome implies the rehabilitation of technical analysis as a principal approach of estimating future performance, in the field of managed equity investments.
Purpose- The purpose of this study is to examine how transformative leadership can support neurodivergent employees while implementing digital transformation initiatives. Design/methodology/approach- A narrative literature review of 178 sources across organizational behavior, human resources, information systems and disability studies informed the development of a conceptual framework through thematic analysis. Findings- Six leadership competencies emerged from the analysis: adaptability, inclusivity, facilitation, communication, innovation and knowledge. Traditional leadership models inadequately address the dual challenges of neurodiversity inclusion and digital transformation. Originality/value- This research uniquely integrates previously separate literature streams on digital leadership, neurodiversity inclusion and transformative leadership theory, offering a novel conceptualization that addresses both technological innovation and human diversity as complementary organizational imperatives.
PurposeThis study aims to examine how smart waste technologies can contribute to shaping sustainable urban futures by transforming waste into actionable data. Focusing on the Traffy Waste Application in Thailand, the research integrates the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology with the task-technology fit framework to explore behavioral and technological factors influencing adoption. By situating technology acceptance within a foresight perspective, the study highlights the potential of digital platforms to drive systemic change in urban sustainability.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative survey was conducted with 352 households. Data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling to assess the predictive power of the integrated model.FindingsThe model explained 79.5% of the variance in adoption intention. Technology fit and performance expectancy emerged as the strongest predictors, while technology characteristics significantly influenced effort expectancy. These findings underscore the importance of aligning innovation with citizen needs to accelerate sustainable adoption.Originality/valueBy reframing waste as a source of strategic urban data, this study advances foresight on how digital waste management platforms can inform long-term planning, policy design and the transition toward circular and resilient cities. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners, particularly in developing countries, on integrating smart city technologies to support sustainable urban futures.
PurposeThe article proposes an approach for assessing the impact of global trends on human capital and its components. This study aims to contribute to the development of new approaches for assessing the impact of a set of global trends on human capital and its individual components.Design/methodology/approachA special methodology was developed based on the use of complex indices. The information base for these indices was formed using the results of a Delphi survey of almost 400 leading experts. The proposed approach allows for assessing the impact upon human capital and the groups of various trends. Assessments were made for 48 global trends classified into six groups (Health, Education and Labor, Society and Values, Economy, Policy and Regulation and Ecology and Environment).FindingsThe results allow us to determine the significance of the influence of individual trends upon human capital and its components and to rank the various trends by their influence on human capital and its components.Practical implicationsProposed approach makes it possible to single out the most significant components of human capital in terms of the influence of various global trends upon them. This can be applied for assessing the impact of various trends upon human capital.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the understanding of influence of global trends on human capital and direction of this influence. Unlike other research studies, which predominantly use quantitative methods to obtain estimates individual global trends in certain aspects of human capital, the suggested approach is based on initially obtaining qualitative estimates, which are further integrated into composite indices.
