Underweight among young women is a serious health issue in Japan, with more than 20% of women in their teens and twenties being underweight. A possible reason for this is the prevalence of social norms that dictate women should be thin for a beautiful appearance. This study investigates the effect of social norms on behaviors and attitudes toward dieting among young women by conducting online laboratory experiments at a private university in Japan. The experiments reveal that the vast majority of young women significantly overestimate the prevalence of dieting among women and the level of support for such behaviors within their university. Correcting misperceptions of these norms positively affects their attitudes toward dieting, yet no behavioral changes were observed. We bolster the external validity of our main findings using the results of an online survey with a larger national sample of women in their 20s, matched to the population distribution across prefectures of Japan. Correcting people’s misperceptions of social norms through education and advertising may effectively influence their attitudes toward healthy and balanced eating habits.
This paper analyses voter preferences on a consumption tax hike using an opinion survey of Japanese citizens. We find robust evidence that the older voter is more likely to support a consumption tax hike. We also find that the most significant inter-generational difference toward consumption tax policy is explained by the gap between men under sixty and over sixty, and that the supporters of the consumption tax hike discontinuously jump up at the age of sixty. We examine the mechanism behind this discontinuous jump at the age of sixty. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that individuals realize the importance of consumption tax at age sixty in order to preserve the value of their private assets.
This study empirically examines the impact of the US government’s tightening of export control regulations on China’s telecommunications equipment company, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. (hereinafter, Huawei), on Japanese supplier firms’ exports to China. We identify the major Japanese suppliers of Huawei and apply the difference-in-differences method to firm-level data from 2016 to 2021. The results indicate that, compared with other Japanese firms in the same industry, Huawei’s supplier firms reduced their exports to China in 2020, just after Huawei was added to the US Entity List in 2019. By contrast, Huawei suppliers increased exports to their affiliates and non-affiliated firms in other Asian economies in 2021 and expanded domestic sales in 2020 and 2021. These responses were particularly strong among R&D-intensive suppliers, suggesting that they precautionarily diversified their customer base away from China toward less-risky destinations, including domestic and neighboring Asian markets, in response to heightened uncertainty surrounding US export control policies.
We examined the different effects of board composition on downsizing between unionized and non-unionized firms, considering the endogeneity of board composition and union status. The results of instrumental variable and endogenous switching probit analysis indicate that the insider ratio on a board is significantly and negatively associated with downsizing of regular employees in unionized firms, whereas this association was not observed in non-unionized firms. Thus, insider-dominated boards restrain downsizing and ensure the job security of regular employees only in unionized firms. We found a dismissal regulation mechanism based on the close relationship between the union and insider board members in Japanese firms. Furthermore, our study found that insider-dominated boards in unionized firms promote reductions in the total number of workers, suggesting that insiders in unionized firms reduce the total number of workers by reducing the non-regular employee workforce. This finding suggests that firms with close ties between the union and inside directors tend to use non-regular employees as a buffer.
This study provides causal evidence on whether digital payments stimulate consumer spending. We use bank transaction data and leverage events related to Quick Response (QR) code campaign as an instrumental variable. Our estimation demonstrates that an increase in QR code payments prompted by campaigns leads to an approximately same-sized increase in other spending. However, this effect is transitory.
This study examines the long-run effect of sex-ratio imbalances in the labor force caused by wartime casualties on the regional manufacturing structure in Japan over subsequent decades. Exploiting cross-prefecture variation in wartime declines in the sex ratio and using a newly digitized panel of prefecture–industry employment and output shares spanning 1925–1995, I estimate the causal effect of these demographic shocks on the manufacturing sector composition over time. I find that prefectures with larger sex-ratio declines shifted persistently toward more female-intensive manufacturing sectors, especially textiles, for decades after the war. Mechanism analyses suggest that capital accumulation, and possibly sex-skewed migration, helped turn a one-time wartime shift in the sex ratio into persistent long-term differences in Japan’s regional manufacturing structure.
Monitoring inflation is central to policymaking, yet it is often difficult to separate demand-driven inflation pressure from transitory price movements driven by sector-specific or institutional factors. This paper constructs a cyclically sensitive inflation (CSI) index for Japan by aggregating sectoral inflations with weights reflecting their correlations with business-cycle movements. An analysis of the estimated weights reveals that sectors susceptible to significant deviations from overall inflation, such as those affected by energy pass-through, policy shifts, weather, or rapid quality improvements, generally receive small or zero weights. Consequently, the CSI series remains robust under various alternative weightings. Using monthly data from 1983 to 2022, we find that macro-financial variables contain predictive information for CSI over time. In evidence from exogenous structural shocks using externally identified oil-market disturbances, CSI is less responsive on impact to transitory cost-push movements but reacts more strongly and persistently to demand-driven changes. Forecast comparisons indicate that CSI improves predictions for the headline CPI relative to traditional headline and core measures, although adding a standard slack indicator yields only limited and inconsistent improvements once CSI is included. Finally, the inflation decomposition analysis indicates that medium- and long-term inflation persistence is primarily associated with the cyclical component captured by CSI, rather than with residual acyclical fluctuations. Overall, CSI complements headline and core inflation measures by providing a timely measure of cyclical inflation pressures and aiding the understanding of persistent inflation dynamics.
This study investigates the value of corporate diversification in Japanese firms, with particular attention to its dynamics. Our analysis, based on a panel of listed firms, indicates that the value of diversification increases when external capital is costly or difficult to access. This pattern is salient for firms with relatively low cash holdings, tight financial constraints, and integrated organizational structures, suggesting that it is rooted in the internal capital markets of diversified firms. Moreover, consistent with the role of coinsurance, which protects firms from financing shocks by enabling their divisions to cross-subsidize, the value of diversification responds more sensitively to capital market conditions for firms operating in industries with heterogeneous cash flow fluctuation patterns and for firms with higher bankruptcy risk. We also document that segmental investment is positively affected by the cash flow of other segments in the firm, especially when external capital markets are under stress. These results suggest that the value of corporate diversification fluctuates because macroeconomic shocks change the relative value of internal and external capital markets.
This study measures the productivity-wage gap among female workers in Japan to empirically examine the discrimination of employers against female employees. The results indicate that firms with a large share of female workers exhibit lower productivity and mean wages. However, a statistically significant productivity-wage gap is not detected, suggesting that, on average, female workers’ wages do not diverge from their contributions to firm productivity. This result means that the discrimination hypothesis is not supported by our firm-level data. According to a subsample analysis, we find no difference in female workers’ productivity-wage gap in firms with labor unions and female directors on their boards. These results highlight the importance of enhancing the productivity of female workers through education, training, and work experience to reduce the gender wage gap.
Using firm-level data from Japan, this study examines how firms restructure in response to import competition from China, with a focus on employment adjustments and industry switching. The results indicate that many firms reduced their workforce in response to rising imports, with production workers experiencing the most substantial job losses. An analysis of the time lag in the effects of import shocks suggests that while the number of production workers declines immediately following an increase in imports, broader employment adjustments and industry switching typically occur after a delay of two or more years. Moreover, a comparison between firms that switched industries and those that did not shows that non-switching firms faced more severe negative impacts from import competition. Offshoring plays a critical role in mitigating these adverse effects.
This study investigates gender differences in labor market outcomes among highly educated individuals in Japan, emphasizing heterogeneity by fields of study, with a focus on STEM. Using data from the Japanese Panel Study of Employment Dynamics (JPSED), we find that women with STEM degrees begin their careers with earnings comparable to men with at least a bachelor’s degree in any field; yet the gap widens to 24.4 percent six to ten years after graduation. Penalties are especially large for mothers and remain sizable for childless women. Field differences are stark: six to ten years out, women with STEM bachelor’s degrees, Social Sciences, or Humanities degrees earn less than men with high-school or junior-college education. In contrast, women with STEM advanced degrees or Medicine/Pharmacy degrees earn more than men with a high-school or junior-college education, and women with Medicine/Pharmacy degrees maintain wage parity with men holding at least a bachelor’s degree in any field. These findings indicate that family responsibilities matter, but structural barriers against women also contribute to persistent gender gaps, with holders of advanced degrees in STEM, Medicine, or Pharmacy as notable exceptions.
This paper examines financial sanctions and currency hegemony by constructing a search-theoretic model involving two large countries, A and C, and a continuum of small countries. These small countries differ in their probabilities of matching with the large countries. Only the currencies of the large countries can circulate as international currencies. While agents in the large countries are committed to using their respective currencies, agents in the small countries independently decide whether to accept or reject the two currencies. The model yields a unique equilibrium in which small countries are categorized into three groups: those that accept only currency A, those that accept only currency C, and those that accept both currencies. The paper also conducts comparative statics and welfare analyses, including the impact of sanctions. It is shown, among others, that under any condition, there are some countries that are better off by being sanctioned provided that there is a competitor for currency hegemony. Furthermore, when country A imposes sanctions on small countries, they expand trade with country C, thereby increasing country C’s welfare. These results highlight the limitations of financial sanctions in the presence of competition for currency hegemony.
We leverage a unique database to examine the role played by management practices in the formation of transaction relationships separately and independently of productivity. We find that management scores are positively associated with the number of transaction partners even after the level of productivity is controlled for. Better management practices also lead to more frequent additions and drops of transaction partners, to transacting with larger and better-managed firms, while they also mitigate the negative effect of transaction-related uncertainty. Structured management enables firms to build growth-oriented transaction networks by ensuring flexible, smooth, and stable transactions.
This study evaluated old-age financial preparedness by incorporating incomes not only from public pension benefits but also from other sources in Japan. It examined whether these post-retirement incomes are adequate to maintain pre-retirement consumption throughout the expected retirement life. We used large-scale data obtained from the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. We found that four-fifths of individuals aged 60-64 years had adequate income resources, while the remaining one-fifth fall short and were required to continue working even after reaching the statutory retirement age. Our results also highlighted diversity in financial preparedness, reflecting differences in educational attainment and marital status, a finding relevant to the targets of public pension and other policies.
This paper investigates the labor market effects of family caregiving, focusing on childcare and eldercare. Using large panel data in Japan and an event-study design that accounts for staggered treatment timing, I find sizeable and persistent employment penalties for females after childbirth. Mothers' employment decreases by 36 percentage points one year after childbirth and stays lower five years later by approximately 19 percentage points. These effects vary by job characteristics, contract type, and co-residence status, highlighting substantial heterogeneity. In contrast, eldercare has smaller, at most 5 percentage points, and often statistically insignificant average effects on employment. However, eldercare penalties are larger and statistically significant, reaching up to 10 percentage points, for females with certain pre-event characteristics: those in low-teleworkability jobs, those in high physical proximity jobs, those on non-regular contracts, and those employed in small firms.
This study re-examines the effects of public sector social infrastructure and intangibles on private sector performance using unique data including public intangibles such as public R&D and public software. In the analysis, we include a novel measure of spillover effects, considering the transaction volumes between two prefectures. We employ three datasets: 1) the updated dataset of social infrastructure published by the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan; 2) the 2021 version of the Regional Japan Industrial Productivity Database, which measures intangibles at the prefecture level; and 3) the inter-regional Input-Output Tables used to measure the unique spillover effects. After estimating a trans-log production function considering social infrastructure and public intangibles, we do not observe any expected externalities of social infrastructure. However, we find that public intangibles exhibit positive contributions to productivity improvements of social infrastructure in the private sector. In particular, the productivity effects of public software considering spillover effects from other regions are larger than those without spillover effects due to its network effects. Our findings indicate that the accumulation of public intangibles is an effective tool for enhancing economic performance in the private sector in Japan.
This study examines how external shocks spread internationally to firms in third countries through global value chains, focusing on the impact of the US-China trade war on Japanese firms. Firms in Japan that heavily rely on exports to China experienced a 7.5% decline in exports, with non-MNEs showing the greatest impact. Japanese MNE affiliates in China experienced a 34% decrease in exports to the United States, although the overall impact was limited as only a few subsidiaries were involved in US-bound exports. Although, in China, local sales by Japanese affiliates declined by 25%, many of these firms offset this decrease by increasing their exports to Japan and other Asian markets. The dispute also led to a slight reduction in procurement from parent companies in Japan, although this effect was minor. In sum, non-MNE exporters in Japan and MNE affiliates reliant on North American exports have been the most affected by the trade war.
This study investigates the relationship between prefecture-level minimum wages and suicide rates in Japan from 2009 to 2024. The results show a statistically significant negative association between minimum wages and suicide rates for both men and women aged 20-29, with the magnitude of the association being stronger for men. Furthermore, minimum wage hikes do not appear to be associated with a rise in suicides among the unemployed, suggesting that potential negative employment effects may not translate into higher suicide rates due to job loss. Additional analysis indicates minimum wages may also reduce suicide among middle-aged workers (aged 30-49) in prefectures with a greater share of non-regular workers and a higher number of households receiving public assistance. Finally, the association became stronger for young men during the post-pandemic period (2020-2024) but vanished for young women, suggesting a shift toward non-financial drivers of suicide for young women during this period.
This paper provides new evidence on spot gig work platforms for individuals seeking flexible, short-term jobs with minimal educational or experience requirements in Japan. Using proprietary data from Timee, a private matching platform, the study analyzes trends in active users, vacancies, hires, and labor market tightness, compared to part-time data from Hello Work, a public employment service. Applying a nonparametric approach, it finds that the private platform exhibits substantially higher matching efficiency, especially after 2022. Elasticities also differ across platforms: for Hello Work, the user elasticity fluctuates around 0.3–0.5, while the vacancy elasticity ranges roughly from 0.4 to slightly above 1.0; for the private platform, the user elasticity remains around 0.2–0.3, while the vacancy elasticity ranges from 0.7 to 1.1. At the prefecture level, the three prefectures exhibit broadly similar movements early in the sample, followed by divergence and partial re-convergence later on, while elasticities remain stable and similar across regions. These results reveal how digital platforms reshape job matching dynamics relative to traditional systems.
