When the rains are too much: El Niño, Smallholder Farmers and Food Security in Western Kenya For generations, farmers in Western Kenya have watched the skies carefully. The arrival, duration, and distribution of rainfall have traditionally provided important signals about when to prepare land, plant, weed, and harvest. But these signals are becoming increasingly difficult to read. Climate change is altering rainfall patterns, while increasingly frequent extreme weather events are making farming more uncertain. The current outlook for the October–December 2026 season brings this challenge sharply into focus. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a wetter-than-normal season across much of the Greater Horn of Africa. The Lake Victoria Basin, which includes large parts of Western Kenya, is among the areas with a high likelihood of receiving more than 400 mm of seasonal rainfall. ICPAC reports that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected—climate conditions that are commonly associated with enhanced rainfall in the region, and is likely to run into February of 2027. But what does this mean for the smallholder farmer? The first point is that more rainfall does not necessarily mean more food. For a farmer whose livelihood depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture, abundant rainfall can be a blessing. It can replenish streams and water sources, improve soil moisture, restore pasture and create favourable conditions for crop production. If well distributed, the rains could contribute to improved harvests and household food supplies. The problem arises when rainfall is too intense, too concentrated or poorly distributed. A farmer may receive a great deal of rain in a few days and then experience a dry spell. Another farmer a few kilometres away may receive considerably less. Heavy downpours can cause flooding, waterlogging and soil erosion. Seeds may be washed away soon after planting. Young crops can be submerged or damaged. Valuable topsoil and nutrients can be carried away, reducing the productivity of land in subsequent seasons. This is particularly important in Western Kenya, where many households depend on small parcels of land for both food and income. A failed or damaged crop is not simply an agricultural loss. It can mean less food in the household, less money for school fees and health care, and fewer resources to purchase nutritious foods. The food-security paradox We must, therefore, look beyond agricultural production to food and nutrition security. A household may produce enough maize yet still have a poor diet if vegetables, legumes, fruits, milk, eggs or other foods are unavailable or unaffordable. Climate shocks can reduce this diversity. When crops are damaged, families may depend more heavily on whatever staple food remains available. This is why climate resilience must also be nutrition-sensitive. Western Kenya has a rich agricultural tradition and considerable potential for diversified food production. Farmers grow cereals, legumes, vegetables and root crops and keep livestock and poultry. Such diversity is not merely an agricultural advantage; it is a nutritional resource. It can provide different foods, spread risk and generate income at different times of the year. Climate adaptation should, therefore, not encourage farmers simply to produce more of one crop. It should help them build diverse and resilient farming systems. Women carry a large part of the burden The impact of erratic and excessive rainfall also has a gender dimension. Women in smallholder households are often deeply involved in food production, processing, preparation and household nutrition. When harvests fail, or food prices rise, women frequently have to find ways of stretching limited household resources to feed the family. When roads become impassable or markets are disrupted, women may have greater difficulty accessing food and agricultural inputs. When water sources are contaminated or damaged, household responsibilities can become even more demanding. Climate adaptation must therefore deliberately include women—not simply as beneficiaries, but as decision-makers, innovators, farmers and leaders. Young people must also be part of the solution There is another group that deserves greater attention: young people. Western Kenya cannot build climate-resilient agriculture while treating agriculture as an occupation of the past. Young people need to see opportunities in modern farming, agro-processing, food safety, climate information services, irrigation, digital agriculture and agricultural entrepreneurship. The increasing unpredictability of climate may actually provide an opportunity to make agriculture more innovative. Young people can help introduce new technologies, improve access to climate information, develop value-added products and create businesses around food production and processing. From forecasting to action The availability of a climate forecast is useful only if it reaches the people who need it in time. Farmers need information that answers practical questions: When should I plant? Which crops or varieties are appropriate? How can I protect my soil? What should I do if rainfall becomes excessive? How can I protect harvested food? Where can I obtain reliable seed and other inputs? Seasonal forecasts should, therefore, be translated into local, practical agricultural advice. ICPAC itself emphasizes that seasonal forecasts should be used together with weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological information. This requires stronger links between meteorological services, agricultural extension officers, researchers, county governments, farmer organizations and communities. We should also strengthen simple but important measures: water harvesting, drainage, terracing and soil conservation; planting crops and varieties suited to local conditions; maintaining vegetation cover; diversifying crops and livestock; improving storage facilities; and protecting food from moisture and contamination. Prepare before the rain comes The greatest lesson from the current El Niño outlook is perhaps that preparedness must begin before the first heavy rains arrive. Governments and development partners should not wait for floods, damaged roads, destroyed crops or food shortages before responding. Early warning should lead to early action. Farmers should be supported to prepare their farms, protect livestock, secure seed and inputs, strengthen food storage and identify alternative routes to markets. This is particularly important because the same season can produce both opportunities and losses. ICPAC notes that enhanced rainfall can support agricultural production and replenish water resources, but can simultaneously increase the risk of flooding, flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas. A changing climate requires a different agricultural mindset Perhaps the most important change we need is in the way we think about farming. For too long, agricultural planning has often assumed that rainfall will behave according to a familiar calendar. That assumption is becoming increasingly unsafe. Farmers now have to manage not only too little rain, but also too much rain, rain at the wrong time and rain in the wrong place. The challenge is, therefore, not simply to produce more food. It is to build food systems that can continue providing adequate, diverse, safe and nutritious food under increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Western Kenya's smallholder farmers should not be left alone to carry this burden. They need science that responds to their realities, extension services that reach them, climate information they can understand and use, financial services that help them manage risk, markets that function during difficult seasons, and policies that recognize the central role of smallholder agriculture in national food and nutrition security, and partners who are willing to appreciate and make use of indigenous knowledge. El Niño should, therefore, be viewed neither simply as a disaster nor automatically as a blessing. It is a climate event whose consequences will depend greatly on our preparedness. The question before us is not merely, “Will the rains come?” They probably will. The more important question is: Will our farmers, food systems and institutions be ready when they do? That is where climate resilience—and ultimately food and nutrition security—will be tested. Prof. Ruth Khasaya Oniang'o Founder and Editor-in-Chief, AJFAND ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8344-9093
Women play a vital role in agriculture, particularly in developing nations where agriculture is a primary source of livelihood. In Ethiopia, women make up more than half of the agricultural workforce while their efforts are often undervalued due to socio-economic and cultural norms that hinder their empowerment and limit their equal participation in decisions on household resources. Addressing these obstacles can enhance recognition of their contributions, strengthen their empowerment, and advance progress toward the core aims of the Sustainable Development Goals. This study examines factors affecting women’s empowerment in agriculture in Arsi zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia, using a cross-sectional quantitative approach. Both random and purposive sampling techniques were used within a three-stage sampling design to select the sample Woredas, Kebeles, and respondents. The Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI) method was applied to assess the level of women’s empowerment in agriculture, and a binary logistic regression model was used to examine the factors affecting women’s empowerment in the agriculture. A total of 375 farm household couples were included in this study full precipitation women and 91.2% among men The result indicated that Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI) of the study area found to be 0.749 while the five domains of empowerment (5DE) and gender parity index found to be 0.740 and 0.835, respectively. The finding revealed that only 37.6% of women were empowered in the study area. Time, income and resource contributed the most to women’s disempowerment with 26%, 24% and 20%, respectively. Result of binary logistic model indicated that age, education, credit access, extension training, information access and non-farm income were found to have positive and significant effects on women’s empowerment and increases the probability of women’s empowerment by 5.6%, 39.7%, 54.5%, 67.6%, 63.5% and 64.5%, respectively. On the contrary, family size, dependency ratio and cultural norms found to be negatively associated with women’s empowerment and decreases the likelihood of women’s empowerment by 9.4%, 13% and 58.8%, respectively. The findings underscore the need for strategies that promote women’s empowerment in agriculture and ensure equal decisions making on household resources, and enhance women’s access to education, access to finance service, information, and extension training to strengthen their empowerment in agriculture in the study area. Most importantly, there is need for initiatives that support the improvements of the existing culture and social norms to ensure women’s equal decision making over household resources. Key words: factors affecting, women empowerment in agricultural index, binary logistics model
Migration is frequently associated with dietary and lifestyle changes that may increase the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to assess dietary practices and lifestyle-related risk factors associated with nutritional transition among sub-Saharan migrants in Morocco. An analytical cross-sectional study was conducted in Casablanca, Morocco, between January 2023 and January 2024, among 272 Sub-Saharan migrants recruited through convenience sampling. A standardized questionnaire was used for data collection. Variables were described as means ± standard deviation or medians [1st–3rd quartile], depending on distribution, and as frequencies and percentages with 95% confidence intervals. The association between duration of stay in Morocco and the frequency of consumption of dairy products, vegetables, fruit, and cereals was assessed using the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test, given the non-normal distribution of the data. Analyses were performed using Jamovi software (version 2.6.44), with statistical significance set at p < 0.05. Participants had a mean age of 25.4 ± 6.6 years. 58.39% had resided in Morocco for 6 months to 4 years, and 41.61% for more than 4 years. Only 38.6% met WHO recommendations for fruit and vegetable intake (400g or 5 servings/ day). 33.8% and 32.4% reported consuming one serving of cereal products/ day and more than one serving/ day, respectively, while 33.8% claimed to consume fewer than 5 servings/ week. More than half (53.7%) reported consuming one serving of dairy products/ day, and 27.9% consumed fewer than 5 servings/ week. Most of participants (64%) obtained protein mainly from poultry, eggs, and fish. Smoking status (83,3% non-smokers), alcohol consumption (77,2% non-drinkers), and physical activity, with 23.9% reporting no physical and 52.2% reporting activity below 30 minutes/ session, up to 3 times/ week. Length of stay in Morocco was significantly associated with the frequency of consumption of fruits, vegetables, and cereals (P < 0,05). These findings suggest that dietary patterns evolve with length of residence, consistent with dietary acculturation, and that low intake of protective foods combined with insufficient physical activity may increase long-term NCD risk in this population, supporting the need for culturally adapted nutrition and physical activity interventions within migrant public health strategies. Key words: Migration, Dietary practices, Nutrition transition, Sub-Saharan migrants, non-communicable diseases, Morocco
Postharvest processing contributes to shea value addition, but processor-level evidence from Uganda’s Vitellaria paradoxa subsp. nilotica zone remains limited. This study describes processing practices, support access, constraints, requested support, and stated interest in modern processing techniques and compares interest by sex and processor role profile. It used a secondary analysis of an April 2025 cross-sectional survey of 266 shea value-chain actors in Arilo Sub County, Yumbe District, Uganda. A total of 142 processors were identified from three non-exclusive occupation variables: 34 reported processing only and 108 combined processing with production, selling, or both. Descriptive statistics used item-specific denominators, and multiple-response fields were consolidated once per respondent. Interest comparisons used Pearson’s chi-square test, Cramér's V, and a Fisher-Freeman-Halton exact test for the sparse role-profile table. Among 141 valid processing-type responses,140 processors indicated traditional/manual processing. Most processors reported no processing training (86%), no additional equipment (98%) and no support through the listed channels (92%). Of those with valid responses, 58% said that processing a batch took more than three days, and 62% processed less than 100 kilograms in a typical season. Basic quality-handling practices were reported by 50%, whereas 49% reported no focus on quality control; burns from fire, heat, or oil were selected as a constraint by 17%. The leading support areas requested were training in modern processing methods, financial assistance, and modern equipment and tools. Responses on stated interest were 62% yes, 26% maybe, and 12% no. Interest did not differ by sex, but it differed by role profile: 21% of processor-only respondents and 75% of multi-role respondents answered yes (χ² (2, n = 142) = 42, p < 0.001, Cramér's V = 0.544; exact p < 0.001). The findings provide processor-level baseline integrating practices, support exposure, constraints, and heterogeneous interest across role profiles. The interest item indicates broad receptiveness rather than readiness to invest in a specified technology. Practical priorities include processing and quality-handling support, occupational-safety assessment, and technology-specific feasibility analysis. Equipment options should be assessed for scale, operating requirements, maintenance, safety, and access arrangements. Key words: Vitellaria paradoxa subsp. nilotica, shea butter, artisanal processing, occupational safety, quality handling, equipment access, processing training, rural value addition
Climate variability has emerged as one of the most dangerous threats to food security and sustainable development, especially in areas where livelihoods are heavily dependent on climate-sensitive resources. Turkana County, located in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), is characterised by frequent droughts, flooding, unpredictable rainfall, and extreme temperatures that are combined with structural vulnerability factors such as poverty, lack of livelihood options, poor infrastructure, and others, resulting in household food insecurity. The study sought to explore the connection between climate-related risks and food security among Turkana youth and sustainable development paths. In the research process, Martha Fineman's Vulnerability Theory, an institutional approach to structural vulnerability and resilience building, guided the research. A mixed-method research design was adopted. The quantitative data were obtained using structured questionnaires from 258 youths aged 18-34 years in Turkana Central and Turkana West sub-counties, while qualitative data were generated through 40 key informant interviews and eight focus group discussions. The quantitative data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, cross-tabulation, and the chi-square test in SPSS Version 25, while qualitative data analysis was conducted using thematic content analysis with Taguette software. From the findings, it is evident that drought, flooding, rainfall variability, and heat stress had impacts that were recurring and widespread in livelihoods, livestock, crop production, water resources, housing, health, education, employment, and migration. The impact of drought was prominent, contributing to the recurring loss of livestock and crops and also increasing fears over water scarcity. Flooding has caused loss of livelihoods and properties, injuries, disruptions in education, and decreased access to safe drinking water. In addition, food insecurity is prevalent in the area, with 43% of the youth not eating any food for a whole day, 37% eating less than they should, while 19% were feeling hungry but were not able to eat any food. From the Chi-square test, there was rejection of the null hypothesis, therefore a significant relationship between the impacts of climate risks and food insecurity amongst the youth in Turkana County. In conclusion, it is clear that climate risks have increased vulnerabilities and slowed down sustainable development efforts. Some of the recommendations include enhancing climate-resilient livelihoods, improving water and agriculture infrastructure, establishing climate information and early warning systems, livelihood diversification, participation of youth, coordination of institutions, and continued investments in adaptation initiatives. Key words: Climate risks, food security, youth, vulnerability, sustainable development, Turkana County
