The main research question of the article is whether credit supply dynamics shape the money supply in Poland and thus strengthen the credit channel of Narodowy Bank Polski’s monetary policy transmission. The analysis began with stationarity tests (ADF, KPSS, PP), which showed that monetary aggregates are integrated of order 2 (I(2)), while credit is integrated of order 1 (I(1)). The different orders of integration justified the use of the Johansen cointegration test, which confirmed the long- -run equilibrium relationship between variables. The Toda-Yamamoto test showed that credit causes changes in M0, M2, and M3, while a weaker feedback relationship also exists in the case of M3. For M1, the opposite relationship was observed – changes in the narrow monetary aggregate precede changes in credit, highlighting the complexity of money classification.
Istotną rolę w tworzeniu i wdrażaniu innowacji odgrywają przedsiębiorstwa określane jako start-upy. Ich rozwój wymaga zapewnienia sprzyjającego otoczenia społecznego i ekonomicznego tworzącego ekosystem start-upów. W Polsce wiele elementów tego ekosystemu nie jest dostatecznie rozwiniętych, przez co nasz kraj umieszcza się na odległych pozycjach pod względem innowacyjności. Celem artykułu jest określenie stopnia dojrzałości ekosystemu start-upów oraz stanu i barier rozwoju tych podmiotów na tle innych krajów. W badaniach wykorzystano analizę danych zastanych, statystyki opisowe oraz analizy porównawcze. Zakres czasowy obejmuje lata 2015–2024, przy czym szczególną uwagę zwrócono uwagę na koniec tego okresu. Wyniki badań wskazują, że pomimo pewnej poprawy pozycji w rankingach innowacyjności Polska nie osiąga poziomu odpowiadającego potencjałowi gospodarki. Funkcjonujące w niej ekosystemy start-upów są słabiej rozwinięte niż w wielu krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Działalność start-upów jest skoncentrowana na wdrażaniu technologii informatycznych stworzonych przez inne podmioty. Do podstawowych barier ich rozwoju należy dostęp do prywatnego kapitału wysokiego ryzyka i profesjonalnego wsparcia biznesowego.
The rise of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services has disrupted traditional consumer credit markets, raising questions about their relationship with established products such as credit cards. Although both offer short-term financing with similar features – such as interest-free periods and flexible repayment options, their roles in consumer behaviour and financial systems are not yet fully understood. This study addresses this gap by analysing potential correlations and changes in the use of BNPL and credit cards in Poland. The research combines a literature review with empirical analysis based on two data sources: a CAWI survey of 350 BNPL users and transaction-level data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) from June 2023 to July 2025. Using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), the study examines relationships between macroeconomic indicators and transaction values and volumes. Results show no clear similarity in the trends of BNPL and credit card transactions, suggesting they do not evolve in a correlated way. However, salary-related variables, CCI, and CL follow similar patterns over time. Overall, the findings provide a nuanced view of how BNPL and credit cards coexist rather than directly substitute each other in the Polish market.
In July 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the intention of moving towards a worldwide recognized system of targeting a short term interest rate, by promoting the 7-day reverse repo rate as the reference rate, thus moving away from previous efforts targeting longer tenors. In spite of this announcement, the PBoC still remains far from an internationally prevailing formula for its pursued policies. This state of affairs has not impeded the PBoC in the last twenty years to show the ability to adjust its operational framework to trends prevailing in the international monetary system. This adaptiveness was often accomplished by questioning classical monetary policies’ conventions and building on experience from China’s past. In this text we shall try to assess reasons behind this unique PBoC policy mix by describing the sources of inspiration for its current policies.
Artykuł koncentruje się na zagadnieniach związanych z wdrażaniem ESG – współczesnej koncepcji zrównoważonego rozwoju. Zasadniczym przedmiotem podjętej w nim analizy i oceny stała się adaptacja przyjmowanych przez banki strategii ESG. Z perspektywy sektora bankowego oznacza ona modyfikację dotychczasowych strategii przez włączenie celów zrównoważonego rozwoju w działalność instytucji bankowych. W opracowaniu przedstawiono wyniki półustrukturyzowanych wywiadów pogłębionych przeprowadzonych wśród przedstawicieli banków krajowych. Zasadniczym celem badawczym opracowania jest rozpoznanie sytuacji w zakresie implementacji strategii ESG w największych bankach komercyjnych w Polsce. Przeprowadzone badania zmierzały do weryfikacji hipotezy zakładającej, że adaptacja strategii ESG w największych bankach komercyjnych w Polsce przebiega w warunkach wysokiej zmienności otoczenia zewnętrznego oraz jest procesem progresywnym, charakteryzującym się różnicowaniem bankowych priorytetów środowiskowych, społecznych i ładu korporacyjnego. Uzyskane rezultaty badań dowodzą, że strategie ESG banków komercyjnych w Polsce zachowują zdolność adaptacji do zmieniających się uwarunkowań zewnętrznych.
The study evaluates the effectiveness of the Polish central bank’s (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP) structural open market operations in 2020–2021 as a quantitative easing (QE) instrument. QE was initiated in response to the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) economic shock. The paper uses input-output methods based on an intersectoral Asset-Liability Matrix (ALM). ALM traces how monetary impulses originating in the central bank’s balance sheet spread through financial links across institutional sectors. The outcomes suggest that in 2020 a significant portion of liquidity generated by asset acquisitions was absorbed into financial savings. It constrained the immediate stimulus to real activity under heightened uncertainty and pandemic restrictions. In 2021, as the economy reopened and demand increased, the net effect turned positive, consistent with a moderate revival of spending and investment, especially through the general government and non-financial corporate sectors. The findings indicate that NBP’s QE programme was effective primarily as an instrument for stabilising financial markets and improving financing conditions. The macroeconomic stimulus was conditional on sectoral balance-sheet behaviour and on the degree to which liquidity leaked into precautionary saving rather than expenditure. The paper’s conclusions should be interpreted as applying to the short-run transmission of liquidity in 2020–2021 rather than to the full medium-term costs and benefits of QE in Poland.
This study examines the evolution of central bank reaction functions in response to the inflation surge that followed the Covid-19 pandemic, with particular focus on interest rate smoothing behaviour. Using a Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, we analyse monetary policy between 2000 and 2025 in 14 developed economies: Australia, Canada, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, the euro area, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United States. Our research focuses on time-varying parameters governing interest rate smoothing behaviour. We identify pronounced shifts during two critical phases: the monetary tightening cycle of 2022–2023 and the subsequent easing phase beginning in 2024. Our results indicate that several central banks deviated from their historical policy behaviour, opting for more abrupt adjustments. Furthermore, during the easing phase, we observe a striking convergence across nearly all economies in the sample, with central banks reducing policy rates more rapidly than implied by their historical reaction functions.
W artykule przeanalizowano rolę presji medialnej jako źródła ryzyka na rynku bitcoina z wykorzystaniem autorskiego Indeksu Medialnej Presji Bitcoina (BMPI) skonstruowanego na podstawie danych GDELT GKG 2.0. Badanie obejmuje 3800 obserwacji dziennych z lat 2015–2026. Wyniki wskazują, że aktywność medialna poprzedza wzrost skali anomalii cenowych oraz epizody podwyższonej zmienności. Testy przyczynowości Grangera potwierdzają istnienie kanału ryzyka informacyjnego, natomiast analiza reżimowa wskazuje na zróżnicowanie efektów pomiędzy fazami rynku. Uzyskane rezultaty sugerują, że BMPI może stanowić użyteczne narzędzie wspomagające ocenę ryzyka inwestycyjnego na rynkach kryptowalut.
This study investigates the association between the Russia-Ukraine war and the Polish stock market, distinguishing between energy price exposure and a geopolitical sentiment channel. Using daily data from 1 November 2021 to 31 January 2025 within a GARCH framework, it analyses return dynamics across sectoral indices. Energy-related sectors are more sensitive to oil, gas, and coal price movements, while firms linked to Ukraine appear exposed to gas-market fluctuations. A sentiment proxy based on Google searches for ‘Ukraine’ is associated with short-term declines in returns, followed by partial reversals, consistent with temporary overreaction, and coincides with movements in energy markets. Robustness checks confirm these patterns. The findings suggest that observed dynamics may be related to both energy-price developments and shifts in investor attention and uncertainty. Energy prices and sentiment factors may be relevant for risk assessment, with short-term reactions informative for trading and risk management.
This study investigates how exchange rate dynamics in the Fragile Five economies are shaped by key macroeconomic and financial indicators, namely foreign direct investment inflows, the balance of trade in goods and services, the current account position, inflationary pressures, policy interest rates, and the level of foreign exchange reserves. Despite extensive research on exchange rate behaviour in emerging markets, empirical evidence focusing on financially vulnerable economies such as the Fragile Five remains relatively limited. This study examines the relationship between these variables using panel regression analysis for the period 1990–2023. The main objective is to identify the macroeconomic determinants influencing exchange rate movements in the Fragile Five economies. The results indicate that foreign direct investment and the net trade balance have a statistically significant positive effect on exchange rates, whereas the current account balance, inflation, and policy interest rates have significant negative effects. Foreign exchange reserves do not show a statistically significant effect. The findings provide empirical evidence on exchange rate vulnerability in emerging economies and offer insights for policymakers and investors.
This paper investigates whether emerging equity markets share a common volatility component and reexamines the major events that have most affected these markets over the past two decades. Common volatility is defined as the exposure of financial assets/markets to common shocks in volatility that simultaneously affect a broad range of these assets or markets. We measure regional COVOL as an indicator of regional common risk and its factor loadings for emerging markets. Our empirical results indicate that COVID-19, major geopolitical events (Brexit, the US tax policy in 2025, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war), and global economic events (the 2008 GFC and oil market-related shocks) exert the strongest influence on the co-movement of emerging markets. Countries in the Middle East exhibit the highest exposure to regional COVOL, suggesting that investment diversification in these markets is relatively less effective at the regional level. Meanwhile, China, South Africa, and Hungary exhibit lower sensitivity.
This study examines how climate change affects systemic risk in the Polish banking sector, focusing on both physical and transition climate risks. We argue that jointly integrating these risks providesa more accurate view of systemic vulnerability. Using a multidimensional framework, we extend the climate stability measure CRISK by incorporating temperature anomalies (physical risk) anda stranded assets index (transition risk). The dataset spans 2005–2023 and covers stock prices of eight systemically important banks, market shocks, and climate proxies tailored to the Polish context. Bank-specific sensitivity factors are estimated with a multivariate GJR-DCC-GARCH model on monthly data, capturing time-varying relationships between market and climate factors. The results show climate shocks significantly increase systemic risk, especially during crises such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, with banks exposed to brown assets most fragile. The study is the first to jointly integrate both climate risks in Poland, offering a replicable methodology for other contexts.
Federal Reserve unconventional monetary policy has been quite often discussed through the lens of quantitative easing (QE). The latter has been extensively described in the literature. This article makes a tentative attempt to move beyond QE. In order to achieve it, the attention focuses on two issues here. One of them is a phenomenon known as the divorce of money from monetary policy. The second one is quantitative tightening (QT), which cannot be merely perceived as a reversal of a formerly introduced quantitative easing. This text is an attempt to offer a detailed description of such tightening based upon the Fed’s experience. Furthermore, the text contains a preliminary assessment of the consequences of the policies pursued in the last eighteen years along with a brief description of the challenges the Fed is facing in the years ahead. One of them is the need to adjust its policy in the wake of the advent of cryptocurrencies, which can be perceived as the side effect of unconventional monetary policies.
This paper assesses the impact of energy price fluctuations in recent years on the competitiveness of Polish and European economies. Using the Leontief price model and input–output tables, we evaluate both direct and indirect effects of price shocks in gas, oil, coal, and electricity on aggregate export prices. Reactions to hypothetical 100% price shocks reveal that European economies are particularly sensitive to oil and electricity, while gas and coal exert smaller but sector-specific effects. Model responses to historical price changes between 2015–2019 and 2020–2024 indicate substantial cross-country variation in export price, with the highest increases observed in the Netherlands, Lithuania, and Greece, and moderate effects in Poland. In most countries, oil and gas price shocks dominate the overall impact, whereas coal affects exports primarily in countries with high coal dependence. The findings highlight the differential sensitivity of national economies to energy price volatility and its implications for export competitiveness.
Niniejszy artykuł przedstawia wielowymiarową, prospektywną analizę potencjalnych skutków gospodarczych dla Polski w przypadku wybuchu konfliktu zbrojnego na jej terytorium. W obliczu załamania sięporządku międzynarodowego po 2022 r. ocena odporności gospodarczej państw frontowych NATO stała się kluczowym wyzwaniem badawczym. Praca wypełnia zidentyfikowaną lukę w literaturze, tworząc kompleksowy model nowoczesnej, zglobalizowanej gospodarki stającej się teatrem bezpośrednich działań wojennych.Główna hipoteza (H1) zakłada, że wojna wywołałaby szok strukturalny o skutkach głębszych niż kryzysy finansowe czy pandemiczne. Wykorzystując autorski model obliczeniowej równowagi ogólnej(POL-WAR-CGE), skalibrowany na danych z 2022 r. i wzmocniony metodą Delphi oraz studium przypadku Ukrainy, skwantyfikowano straty w trzech scenariuszach. Wyniki wskazują na ryzyko spadkuPKB o ponad 50% i wystąpienie hiperinflacji w wariancie wojny o wysokiej intensywności. Analiza obejmuje także koszty społeczne (degradacja kapitału ludzkiego) oraz asymetrię regionalną. Pracapostuluje przejście od paradygmatu efektywności just-in-time do systemowej odporności just-in-case.
Assessing the impact of population outflows on the age structure of sending countries is difficult, since the effects are not only direct – through instantaneous changes in the size of specific agecohorts – but also indirect, extending to childbearing trends within the economy. In this paper I use the overlapping generation model with endogenous migration choice to examine the significanceof the indirect ‘missing births’ channel. The results confirm the key role of the indirect channel in shaping the population age structure and the long-term effects of emigration flows on macroeconomic aggregates.
The model risk of two systemic risk measures (SRMs) was quantified for a set of systemically important European banks, using the dispersion of SRM estimates as a proxy. A high model risk was observed, with dispersions of above 65% of the average value, associated with the parametrization error of the Monte Carlo algorithm alone, which has profound implications in the context of systemic risk. Ranking individual banks based on the SRM values was observed to become less dependable due to the high model risk of the SRMs, thus making it difficult for regulators to implement proper policies. Underestimation of the systemic risk of a bank increases the stress within the network, while overestimation of the systemic risk of a bank might lead to undue penalties levied upon the bank. The model risk metric we used additionally allowed us to rank the parameter contributions to the observed model risk.
This paper investigates the performance and implementability of equity factor strategies – value, momentum, quality, and low volatility (defensive) – in the Polish stock market over the 2014–2024 period. The ‘academic’ factors constructed as long-short portfolios are found to produce positive returns with low (or negative) correlation with the broad market. However, once transaction costs – including bid-ask spreads, commissions, and market impact – are incorporated, net factor returns deteriorate substantially, losing much of their appeal. The absence of a developed short-selling market in Poland further challenges the direct replication of traditional academic factor models. Despite these frictions, factor signals can still add value in a long-only framework, particularly when turnover constraints and liquidity filters are introduced. Backtests of factor-tilted portfolios demonstrate that smart beta-style implementations, especially those complemented by short positions in WIG20 index futures neutralizing market exposure, offer a viable alternative to pure long-short factor strategies.
A currency basis spread (CBS) reflects the demand-supply balance in the cross-border secured deposits market. In emerging markets, it particularly indicates the balance of non-residents’ flows and the liquidity exposure of local entities in foreign currencies. This article focuses on liquid instruments traded in the OTC market. The incentives to use short-term FX swaps and long-term cross-currency basis swaps are heterogeneous. The paper examines the information content embedded in changes in PLN currency basis prices. The research method involves comparing the directional sign of returns recorded simultaneously on the currency basis spread, asset swap spread, and foreign exchange spot.This information is analysed over five subperiods within a 23-year time series. Empirical results suggest the influence of currency speculation and bond investments on the short end of the currency swap curve, visible within a 10-day window. This evidence indicates that currency swaps play a significant role in refinancing local investments, both in Treasury securities and in carry trading.
This study aims to reveal public sentiment toward China’s pension policies from January 2018 to August 2023, leveraging over 260,000 Weibo posts to identify key themes and demographic differences. Advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, including sentiment analysis and latent Dirichlet allocation, are employed to explore six topics, such as societal impact and policy integrity, while uncovering demographic and regional variations. The findings reveal that policy changes significantly influence public sentiment, with greater negativity observed around institutional and structural aspects of the policies. These results underscore the need for public education on pension reforms and fraud prevention, providing actionable insights for policymakers in an aging society. The study contributes to behavioural finance theory by illustrating how heuristics like availability bias and loss aversion shape public reactions to pension reforms. However, social media data may not fully represent less active groups like older adults, highlighting the need for broader research methods.
