An attempt at forecasting the magnetic activity index three hours in advance is presented. This approach is based on a suitable treatment of time-weighted accumulations of the three-hourly magnetic index Kp. The statistical analysis of impact of magnetic activity on the positive and negative disturbances of the F 2 layer peak electron density NmF 2 is made for 25 ionosondes in Europe and Russia during 1997 to 2001. It is shown that the response of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances to peak of magnetic activity Kpmax delays by 1 to 48 h. Two peaks of occurrence of positive and negative ionospheric disturbed periods are found referring to Kpmax equal to 3 and 4 for DNmF2+ and Kpmax equal to 4 and 5 for DNmF2 shifted regarding similar distribution of forecasted Kpm indices depicting two maxima at Kp equal to 1.7 and 2.7. Comparisons are made with observations and IRI-2001 model predictions.
Very high frequency deep radio sounding systems for ice thickness measurements are practically the only useful apparatuses for large scale radar flight surveys in polar regions. The morphology of the bottom surface of an Antarctic floating ice tongue, in the Ross Sea area, East Antarctica, was studied using the arrival times of signal echoes of the radio sounding system. The amplitude variations of radar signals from the reflecting surface were analyzed to determine the gain or the loss of the reflectors. Such surfaces show quasi-parabolic geometrical shapes at the ice/water interface with both concave and convex faces towards the sounding system. Electromagnetic analysis performed on radar echoes indicates that amplitude variations detected by the antenna are focusing or defocusing effects only due to the reflector's shape. A factor in the radar equation that represents the surface shape when coherent reflectors are involved is introduced. This factor allows us to determine more precisely the morphology and electromagnetic characteristics of the interface between the media investigated by means of radio echo sounding.
After six years of quietness La Fournaise volcano entered into activity on March 9, 1998. Fissures opened gradually downwards on the northern flank of the cone. Two cones, Kapor and Krafft built, from which lava poured until September 1998. Several other vents opened during this eruption. Mappings, surveys, and continuous recordings of the Self-Potential have been performed on the volcano for twenty years. SP mappings disclose the variability of large scale SP anomalies due to the modification of the hydrothermal system over some ten years. Most of the eruptions take place along a Main Fracture Zone (MFZ) in which ground water flows prevail. SP measurements have also regularly been made on the northern flank of the cone, on a west-east profile crossing the MFZ. Between 1981 and 1992 an enlargement and a shift of the MFZ to the east are evidenced. In particular, the eastern fissural axis trending N35°E could be related to the possible collapse of the east flank of the volcano. After a decrease between 1992 and 1997, the SP anomaly was enhanced again by the 1998 eruption. Short scale, about 250 m wide, 750 mV amplitude anomalies were superimposed on a large scale one, 2500 m wide, and about 250 mV in amplitude. For several years, continuous stations have been measuring the electric field along two directions, with a 20 s sampling, in order to record the genesis of SP signals associated with the volcanic activity. Oscillations belonging to the ULF band were evidenced several days before the 1988 eruption, some of them at 9 km from the summit. Their amplitude reached several tens mV/km. These oscillations sometimes present a phase lag from one station to another; they progressively shift towards the location of the future effusive vents. The polarisation of the oscillations is similar to the polarisation of longer SP variations (1 h period or more) and are correlated with the structural anisotropy. Finally, during the last hours preceding the effusive activity, huge SP signals, up to a few Volts/km, appeared at the stations located on the MFZ, and especially on the branch where the magma migrated. We interpret these SP signals as due to electrokinetic effects generated by fluid flow in cracks opened by the stress field changes.
Many attempts have been made to disclose anomalous changes of the electromagnetic field in relation with tectonic earthquakes. We tentatively develop a new approach based on the energy and polarity of the electric field, and apply this method to the seismicity in Greece. The study of the parameters of the horizontal electric field is realized in a time interval of five years. The data set allows the study of long-term variations of the field. Further, we examined the possible relation of the geoelectric activity with long distance seismicity (up to 500 km). The energy of the electric signal was estimated and correlated with the logarithm of the seismic moment (M 0 ). The values of the seismic moment estimated for each earthquake were summed for daily intervals, and the logarithm of the sum was computed. The same process was applied to the energy of the geoelectric field. Then, a correlation was attempted between the energy of the geoelectric field and the seismic moment referring to daily intervals. In two cases, changes in the energy of the horizontal geoelectric field were observed before the burst of the seismic activity. The energy of the telluric field increased several months before the burst of seismic activity and recovered right after the occurrence of the mainshocks. The hodograms of the horizontal geoelectric field show polarization changes regardless of the magnetic field. This is possibly attributed to the process of generation of electric currents before major earthquakes. Due to high and continuous regional seismicity in Greece, it was impossible to attribute the response of the polarization to the activation of specific seismic areas. It seems that the long-term energy variations of the horizontal geoelectric field as well as the polarization are related to forthcoming seismic activity. Therefore, long-term energy variations of the horizontal geoelectric field as well as the polarization could be used in tandem with other possible precursors in order to contribute to earthquake prediction studies.
The results of ULF electromagnetic signal observations in seismoactive regions prior to earthquakes are presented and discussed. The new differential measurement technique developed in SPbF IZMIRAN for location of the ULF emission sources of space and lithosphere origin is described. The MVC-2DS geophysical instrumentation is introduced as a promising toot for registration of ULF signals related to earthquakes (both seismic and electromagnetic ones). Methods are proposed for ULF data processing to investigate the preparation processes in the earthquake source regions and to distinguish seismogenic signals on the background of space pulsations. Some examples of application of those methods for study of the earthquake precursory signatures are presented. Perspectives of seismo-electromagnetic tomography experiments in seismoactive regions, using MVC-2DS technique, are discussed in relation to the development of earthquake prediction methods.
The results of the application of the 3D probability tomography imaging approach to the study of the Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera are presented and discussed. The tomography approach has been applied to gravity, magnetic and ground deformation data already available in literature. The analysis of the 3D tomographic images is preceded by a brief qualitative interpretation of the original survey maps and by an outline of the probability tomography approach for each geophysical prospecting method. The results derived from the 3D tomographic images are the high occurrence probabilities of both gravity and ground deformation source centres in the CF caldera under the town of Pozzuoli. A Bouguer negative anomaly source centre is highlighted in the depth range 1.6-2 km b.s.l., whereas a positive ground deformation point source, responsible for the bradyseismic crisis of 1982-1984, is estimated at a mean depth of 3-4 km b.s.l. These inferences, combined with the results of a previous analysis of magneto telluric, dipolar geoelectrical and self-potential data, corroborate the hypothesis that the bradyseismic events in the CF area may be explained by hot fluids vertical advection and subsequent lateral diffusion within a trapped reservoir overlying a magma chamber.
Nakamuras technique, or the H/V spectral ratio method, has been applied to microtremor measurements carried out in the urban area of Catania (Eastern Sicily) to obtain information on the geological structure of some sites,and to make a hypothesis on their seismic response. In general, sites located on soft soils or anthropic debris fillings have shown greater amplification at high frequencies (above 1 Hz). However, a strong lateral variation was observed in the frequency band, thus a denser grid of measurement points is necessary for a precise mapping of the resonant frequencies. In the low frequency range, between 0.1 and 1 Hz, a common peak around 0.2 Hz was observed. The fundamental resonant frequency inferred from the main peak in the H/V spectrum has been used to calculate the depth of the interface between the clays and the main reflector on the basis of the shear-wave velocity: it has been estimated as about 700 m.
The electromagnetic induction pattern in the Eastern Alps is characterised by a (continuous) large-scale zone on which the real parts of the induction arrows show anomalous directional behaviour. This zone extends from the Penninic Domain of Eastern Switzerland (Graubünden) probably into the Carpathian ranges. A coarse mesh of a Magnetotelluric (MT) and Geomagnetic Deep Sounding (GDS) station in the Alps of Graubünden and Valais (Western Switzerland) indicates that this electromagnetic anomaly is restricted to the Mesozoic sediments of the North Penninic Bündnerschiefer-facies that begins in Eastern Switzerland and extends towards the east beneath Austroalpine, South Penninic and Southalpine units. Striking similarities in position and arrangement between this zone and the magnetic signature in the Eastern Alps are found. The analysis of the GDS data with the method of the Hypothetical Event Analysis (HEA) shows that current channelling affects the electromagnetic fields in this zone and causes the anomalous direction of induction arrows. Based on the combined interpretation of GDS data from the Eastern Alps and West Hungary together with our recent data from Switzerland, the following geological implications are discussed: i) a spatial decoupling of induction processes from the upper to the lower crust; ii) a lower crustal conductive structure caused by the indentation of the Northern Adriatic promontory or terrane; iii) the eastward continuation of the Bündnerschiefer-facies at least to the tectonic window of Rechnitz.
In this paper we focus on the question whether GPS networks born with cartographic aims can be safely used in crustal deformation control. We carried out a test on a network of five vertices located in the Rome district, comparing two data sets, the first coming from the adjustment of the survey carried out in 1994 in the frame of the IGM95 project, the second coming from the surveys carried out in 1996 and 1999 by the DITS of the "La Sapienza" University of Rome. Our analysis shows how the detection of crustal deformation becomes extremely critical in absence of significant seismicity or when deformation events are limited. In other words, it is possible to find false deformations due to residual systematic effects affecting the coordinate estimates
The seismic network set up in the Hyblean Plateau (Southeastern Sicily) in the framework of the POSEIDON project is aimed at the seismic surveillance of the zone, and in particular the identification of faults with enhanced activity. The seismic activity as inferred from the records of the years 1994-1998 showed an apparent concentration of events in the zone between Augusta and Syracuse where important petrochemical facilities are present, with a resulting elevated secondary seismic risk. However, the heterogeneity in the distribution of events with respect to the time of day made us suspect that these seismicity maps are severely biased by artificial events, such as quarry explosions. We distinguished between tectonic earthquakes and quarry blasts by the inspection of waveforms of certain key stations, and by spectral analysis. As a general rule we found that the local tectonic microearthquakes are richer in high frequencies than the quarry blasts. All events which were identified as quarry blasts occurred during the daytime between 08:00 a.m. and 03:00 p.m. GMT and on weekdays from Monday to Friday. The aforementioned concentration of seismicity between Augusta and Syracuse disappeared when filtering out these events. Automatic discrimination was carried out in a straightforward way using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in a supervised classification. The application of the ANN to various test data sets gave a success of about 95%. This showed that our results obtained with a visual discrimination are mathematically reproducible and not arbitrary.
During three Antarctic summer campaigns (1995/97/99) Radio Echo Sounding (RES) system data from some glacier ice tongues in the East Antarctic regions between Victoria Land and George V Land were collected. The morphology and structure of the bottom surfaces deduced from the electromagnetic interpretation of echo signal were observed. The bottom surfaces at the ice/water interface show either irregular or flat contours or both. Some ice tongues are nearly perfectly flat, others show clear signs of irregularities while three of them have good regular spaced rippled bottom surfaces. The latter structures are well-evident in the longitudinal traverse of the tongues, whereas the transversal paths do not show the same features. This particular shape of the bottom surfaces related to the ablation process and detachment mechanism could be interesting especially to determine some physical characteristics and the possible fracture points of the ice tongues.
Two microearthquake swarms occurring in Southeastern Sicily during November 1999 and January 2000 were analysed with respect to their seismotectonic features. Given the low magnitude of the events fault plane solutions for only four major events were computed, which revealed normal fault and inverse fault mechanisms. From the comparison of waveforms and the relation of P- and S-wave peak amplitudes, two families of multiplets were identified, each representing a distinct type of seismic dislocation. Composite fault plane solutions for the two families showed the same trends as for the single major events. The small number of mismatches of the composite solutions supports the hypothesis of two distinct types of seismic dislocation during the whole sequence, i.e. a normal fault mechanism along E-W striking planes and an inverse fault mechanism along NE-SW striking planes.
A study of some earthquakes (M > 5.3) affecting Southeastern Sicily was performed to define their seismic sources and to estimate seismic hazard in the region. An analysis of historical reports allowed us to reassess intensities of the 1542, 1693, 1818, 1848 and 1990 earthquakes by using the new European Macroseismic Scale 98. The new intensity data were used to define parameters and the orientation of seismic sources. The sources obtained were compared with the ones computed using the MCS intensities retrieved from the Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes. The adopted procedure gives results that are statistically significant, but both the epicentre location and source azimuth, in some cases, are strongly affected by the azimuthal gap in the intensity distribution. This is evident mainly for the 1693 January earthquakes. For these earthquakes the macroseismic data uncertainty gives significantly different solutions, and does not allow the events to be associated with known active faults. By handling the new estimated intensity data and using the site seismic histories, the seismic hazard for some localities was calculated. The highest probability of occurrence, for destructive events (I = 10), was obtained in the area between Catania, Lentini and Augusta, suggesting that the seismogenic sources are located near the Ionian coast.
Body waveform modelling and far-field displacement spectral analyses were used to study the source parameters of five of the largest earthquakes of the (Izmit-Bolu) Turkey 1999 sequence. The derived source parameters for the August 17, 1999 M W 7.4 event are: strike = 267°, dip = 85°, rake = 175°, h = 10 km, M 0 = 1.31×10 20 Nm. The length of the fault was found equal to 76 km, the average displacement 6.4 m and the static stress drop 90 bars. The Bolu November 12, 1999 M W 7.1 event has a focal mechanism with strike = 262°, dip = 53°, rake = 177°, h = 12 km, M 0 = 4.71×10 19 Nm, fault length of 56 km, average displacement 2.1 m and average static stress drop 29 bars. The focal mechanisms of three other aftershocks of the Izmit sequence indicate right lateral strike slip motion, as well. The slip vectors of the events studied are in accordance with the GPS velocity vectors, have a mean azimuth of 269° and reveal the extrusion of the Anatolian plate towards the Aegean.
We applied a hybrid stochastic-deterministic method to simulate the strong ground motion characteristics associated with the September 26, 1997 Umbria-Marche main shocks. One hundred different rupture processes on previously inferred fault planes were simulated. The maps of computed PGA (mean values from 100 simulations) show a SE alignment for the 00:33 event and a NW alignment for the 09:40 event, in accordance with the macroseismic data. Moreover, we found a good agreement between the predicted 1ó interval for the PGA values and the data recorded at several accelerometric stations. As a further test, we computed the response spectra at the station Cerreto di Spoleto and found a satisfactory agreement with the synthetic results.
The first deep seismic sounding experiment in Northwestern Anatolia was carried out in October 1991 as part of the "German - Turkish Project on Earthquake Prediction Research" in the Mudurnu area of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The experiment was a joint enterprise by the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of Frankfurt University, the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) in Ankara, and the Turkish Oil Company (TPAO). Two orthogonal profiles, each 120 km in length with a crossing point near Akyazi, were covered in succession by 30 short period tape recording seismograph stations with 2 km station spacing. 12 shots, with charge sizes between 100 and 250 kg, were fired and 342 seismograms out of 360 were used for evaluation. By coincidence an M b = 4.5 earthquake located below Imroz Island was also recorded and provided additional information on Moho and the sub-Moho velocity. A ray tracing method orginally developed by Weber (1986) was used for travel time inversion. From a compilation of all data two generalized crustal models were derived, one with velocity gradients within the layers and one with constant layer velocities. The latter consists of a sediment cover of about 2 km with V p » 3.6 km/s, an upper crystalline crust down to 13 km with V p » 5.9 km/s, a middle crust down to 25 km depth with V p » 6.5 km/s, a lower crust down to 39 km Moho depth with V p » 7.0 km/s and V p » 8.05 km/s below the Moho. The structure of the individual profiles differs slightly. The thickest sediment cover is reached in the Izmit-Sapanca-trough and in the Akyazi basin. Of particular interest is a step of about 4 km in the lower crust near Lake Sapanca and probably an even larger one in the Moho (derived from the Imroz earthquake data). After the catastrophic earthquake of Izmit on 17 August 1999 this significant heterogeneity in crustal structure appears in a new light with regard to the possible cause of the Izmit earthquake. Heterogeneities in structure are frequently also heterogeneities in strength and stress that impede or even lock rupture. The Izmit earthquake is discussed in relation to a large stepover or jog at the North Anatolian Fault.
The discovery of recent co-seismic sedimentary structures and the detection of low energy seismic activity in the Murgian plateau (Apulia - Southern Italy) motivated a more detailed examination of the tectonics in this part of the Apulian plate commonly believed to be aseismic. In particular, we examined the north-western zone where a seismic sequence with maximum magnitude 3.2 and tensional focal mechanism occurred in 1991. The analysis of the existing gravimetric data, integrated by three new profiles carried out across the epicentral area, disclosed an anomaly possibly due to an old tensional tectonic structure located within the upper crust. Even though the depth and the age hypothesised for the anomaly source would exclude a direct causal connection with the observed seismicity, this structure could be a shallower expression of a tectonic structure extending down to the crystalline basement: it could represent a zone of relative «weakness» where the regional stress, due to the interactions between Apennines and Apulian plate, encounters conditions facilitating the release of seismic energy.
A short review of published papers on the perturbations in the ionosphere due to seismogenic effects is reported. The method to correlate different classes of phenomena as ionospheric variations and subsequent seismic events is discussed. Even if the theoretical attempts to understand or to explain the electromagnetic phenomena in the ionosphere, as precursors of earthquakes are not satisfactory, the reported results encourage further investigations.
The ECHAM 3.2 (T21), ECHAM 4 (T30) and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes) atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF), and in June-August (JJA). In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000) over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP) and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500). There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones). The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related at all to the intensity of Niño3.4 SST anomalies. The leading reproducible mode in JJA is clearer and more skilful for SLP than for Z500 and also seems related to the SST time evolution of tropical Pacific. It is characterised by an out-of-phase between the whole North Pacific and a horseshoe shaped area from Eastern Siberia and Gulf of Mexico. The leading OM mode found in MAM and SON, are quite close to the DJF one (at least for the modelled anomalies), but they are less skilful than in DJF. The most skilful mode (i.e. SLP-Z500 mode in DJF and SLP mode in JJA) is almost similar to the most reproducible one during these particular seasons. In MAM and SON, the SST-forced pattern is very close to the wintertime one. The warm episodes in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are then associated with negative pressure anomalies at the sea level and also at 500 hPa over the whole North Pacifkc and from SE US Coast to Western Europe (from SE US Coast to Scandinavia for Z500) and positive pressure anomalies on Central Canada, north of 55°-60°N across the North Atlantic and also over Northern Siberia (in MAM). The variance forced by SST are lower in MAM and SON than in DJF and, as suggested above, the skill of this SST-forced mode is weak in MAM and almost close to zero in SON.
