▪ Abstract This paper explores how long-term energy forecasts are created and why they are useful. It focuses on forecasts of energy use in the United States for the year 2000 but considers only long-term predictions, i.e., those covering two or more decades. The motivation is current interest in global warming forecasts, some of which run beyond a century. The basic observation is that forecasters in the 1950–1980 period underestimated the importance of unmodeled surprises. A key example is the failure to foresee the ability of the United States economy to respond to the oil embargos of the 1970s by increasing efficiency. Not only were most forecasts of that period systematically high, but forecasters systematically underestimated uncertainties. Long-term energy forecasts must make assumptions about both technologies and social systems. At their most successful, they influence how people act by showing the consequences of not acting. They are useful when they provide insights to energy planners, influence the perceptions of the public and the energy policy community, capture current understanding of underlying physical and economic principles, or highlight key emerging social or economic trends.It is true that at best we see dimly into the future, but those who acknowledge their duty to posterity will feel impelled to use their foresight upon what facts and guiding principles we do possess. Though many data are at present wanting or doubtful, our conclusions may be rendered so far probable as to lead to further inquiries… ( 1 ), p. 4.
▪ Abstract Globally, almost three billion people rely on biomass (wood, charcoal, crop residues, and dung) and coal as their primary source of domestic energy. Exposure to indoor air pollution from the combustion of solid fuels is an important cause of disease and mortality in developing countries. Despite recent advances in estimating the health impacts of indoor smoke, there are limited studies targeted toward the design and implementation of effective intervention programs. We review the current knowledge of the relationship between indoor air pollution and disease, and of the assessment of interventions for reducing exposure and disease. This review takes an environmental health perspective and considers the details of both exposure and health effects that are needed for successful intervention strategies. In particular, we summarize the emerging understanding of the central role of household energy technology and day-to-day household activities in determining exposure to indoor smoke. We also identify knowledge gaps and detailed research questions that are essential in successful design and dissemination of preventive measures and policies. In addition to specific research recommendations based on the weight of recent studies, we conclude that research and development of effective interventions can benefit tremendously from integration of methods and analysis tools from a range of disciplines—from quantitative environmental science and engineering, to toxicology and epidemiology, to the social sciences.
▪ Abstract From modest beginnings in the 1960s, environmental economics has grown to be a major subdiscipline of economics. It combines traditional work in the field of welfare economics and the theory of economic growth with more recent perspectives on the political economy of choosing policy instruments and the philosophy of sustainable development. The central tenets are that environmental problems have their roots in the failure of economic systems to maximize human well-being, that environmental quality matters for human well-being and for more traditionally oriented economic growth objectives, and that efficient policy can be achieved through incentive design.
▪ Abstract Presently, India occupies a leading place among Asian nations in the indigenous design, development, construction, and operation of nuclear power reactors. Nuclear power generation in India is based on a three-stage plan to eventually make use of the abundant national resources of thorium, through the use of fast breeder reactors. To achieve this long-range goal, India had to necessarily start with setting up heavy water–moderated, natural uranium–fueled power reactors to produce the plutonium required for the subsequent stages. But, as a result of India's nuclear weapon test in 1974, the developed nations imposed a comprehensive ban on the export of nuclear materials and technology to India, and these sanctions are still in force. This article outlines the steps followed by India to successfully counter these sanctions over the last 25 years and presents a critical evaluation of the potential problems and prospects of nuclear power in India.
[Figure: see text]▪ Abstract The evolution from an electrochemist was motivated by a growing conviction that Indian science and technology should be reoriented. A cell was created in the Indian Institute of Science in 1974 to initiate and promote work of rural relevance as a weapon against poverty. Surveys led to a detailed empirical study of energy consumption patterns in villages and to the design and construction of rural energy centers. The lessons from this village work are described.The principal outcome of the collaboration with J. Goldemberg (Brazil), T.B. Johansson (Sweden), and R.H. Williams (United States) was the book Energy for a Sustainable World that contributed significantly to the new paradigm for energy. The application of this paradigm resulted in a detailed electricity demand scenario for the South Indian state of Karnataka. Following mandatory retirement from the Indian Institute of Science, the International Energy Initiative (IEI) was set up in 1991 as a Southern-conceived, Southern-led, Southern-located South-North partnership. Persisting personal concerns about the ethical implications of science resurfaced through opposition to India's nuclear tests in 1998 and a visit to the concentration camps at Auschwitz. The associated human dimensions of energy were emphasized in the acceptance speech at Göteborg of the Volvo Environment Prize 2000. The penultimate endgame involved retirement.
[Figure: see text] ▪ Abstract FAUST: Ich fühl's, vergebens hab' ich alle Schätze Des Menschengeists auf mich herbeigerafft, Und wenn ich mich am Ende niedersetze, Quilt innerlich doch keine neue Kraft; Ich bin nicht um ein Haar breit höher, Bin dem Unendlichen nicht näher. Goethe's Faust, Part I, lines 1810–15. 1 A dedication to research in the physical sciences together with the circumstances of World War II, led me into theoretical and observational studies of the global physical climate. For all practical purposes, I was on my own when working in Cambridge and London, England, and I went whereever my interests led me. I organized three atmospheric observatories (two in England). I have also worked at many astronomical observatories. As time progressed, I became increasingly involved in studies of atmospheric radiation as a controlling factor for the Earth's climate. I am often taken to be a specialist in atmospheric radiation, but I have never regarded it as more than an important element in climate studies. But radiative transfer and global questions did not become important for climate science until later, and in the 1950s and 1960s I found myself drawn to studies of planetary atmospheres as an arena in which my skills were of central importance. Mars and Venus were the focus of my work for many years, and I was partly responsible for launching the Pioneer Venus mission, which placed probes into the Venus atmosphere in 1978. Much later, the experience I gained in space instrumentation and in the structure of atmospheres led me back to climate science, where I started. Then my interest was in observing the climate and testing the credibility of climate predictions. I still maintain some activity in this field. Outside these research activities, I created a Center for Earth and Planetary Physics at Harvard University to take over the activities of the Blue Hill Observatory, when that Observatory ceased to be a viable facility. The purpose of the Center was to teach earth science in the context of the discipline of physical science. The Center had some notable achievements but eventually had to give way to requirements for environmental sciences in the University, a change that I regret. During my active life in the United States, I invested a great deal of effort in support of the work of the National Research Council (NRC), including many years spent on report review. I am increasingly troubled by the postmodern view of science that appears to dominate these activities. But that may be no more than a biased rosy view of the past with its exciting early experiences and hopes.
▪ Abstract Renewable energy is shifting from the fringe to the mainstream of sustainable development. Past donor efforts achieved modest results but often were not sustained or replicated, which leads now to greater market orientation. Markets for rural household lighting with solar home systems, biogas, and small hydro power have expanded through rural entrepreneurship, government programs, and donor assistance, serving millions of households. Applications in agriculture, small industry, and social services are emerging. Public programs resulted in 220 million improved biomass cook stoves. Three percent of power generation capacity is largely small hydro and biomass power, with rapid growth of wind power. Experience suggests the need for technical know-how transfer, new replicable business models, credit for rural households and entrepreneurs, regulatory frameworks and financing for private power developers, market facilitation organizations, donor assistance aimed at expanding sustainable markets, smarter subsidies, and greater attention to social benefits and income generation.
▪ Abstract Since the late 1980s, China has developed an extensive program of energy efficiency standards and labeling for household appliances. This development closely traces the rapid growth of appliance ownership and the domestic appliance industry and is an integral part of China's comprehensive energy conservation policy. The implementation of energy efficiency standards and labels for household appliances has not only achieved significant reductions in energy consumption and therefore greenhouse gas emissions in China, but it has also been instrumental in stimulating one of the world's largest appliance markets. This article reviews the historical development of Chinese programs, summarizes the most recent activities, and documents to the extent possible their impact on appliance efficiency and energy consumption.
▪ Abstract Minimum energy efficiency standards are regulations that require products to meet specific energy efficiency requirements. Standards have been adopted in 17 countries plus the European Union. Standards have been set on more than 35 products, with refrigerators, air conditioners, ballasts, and freezers being the most common. Based on the available evidence, standards appear to be a very effective energy-saving policy. They have reduced energy use substantially in the United States and made good initial progress in other countries. The standards that have been implemented thus far appear to be cost effective to consumers and result in minimal adverse impacts on manufacturers. Available evidence indicates that the costs of actually implementing standards are commonly less than estimates made by manufacturers and government agencies during the standard-setting process. Standards are frequently a useful complement to other policies such as product labeling, incentives, and voluntary agreements. However, standards are not appropriate for all products and situations.
▪ Abstract Technical change in the energy sector is central for addressing long-term environmental issues, including climate change. Most models of energy, economy, and the environment (E3 models) use exogenous assumptions for this. This is an important weakness. We show that there is strong evidence that technical change in the energy sector is to an important degree induced by market circumstances and expectations and, by implication, by environmental policies such as CO2abatement. We classify the main approaches to modeling such induced technical change and review results with particular reference to climate change. Among models with learning by doing, weak responses are only obtained from models that are highly aggregated (lack technological diversity) and/or that equate rates of return to innovation across sectors. Induced technical change broadens the scope of efficient policies toward mitigation, including not just research and development and aggregated market instruments but a range of sectoral-based policies potentially at divergent marginal costs. Furthermore, to the extent that cleaner technologies induced by mitigation diffuse globally, a positive spillover will result that will tend to offset the substitution-based negative spillover usually hypothesized to result from the migration of polluting industries. Initial explorations suggest that this effect could also be very large.
China is rapidly developing as evidenced by enhanced urbanization and industrialization and greatly increased energy consumption. However, these have brought Chinese cities a variety of urban air pollution problems in recent decades. During the 1970s, black smoke from stacks became the characteristic of Chinese industrial cities; in the 1980s, many southern cities began to suffer serious acid rain pollution; and recently, the air quality in large cities has deteriorated due to nitrous oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and photochemical smog, which are typical of vehicle pollution. Some cities now have a mixture of these. Urban air pollution influences both the health of citizens and the development of cities. To control air pollution and protect the atmospheric environment, the Chinese government has implemented a variety of programs. This paper first reviews the current status of air quality in Chinese cities, especially key cities, then describes the characteristics of some major urban air pollutants, including total suspended particles (TSP), respirable particles 10 microns or less in diameter (PM10), very fine particles 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5), Sulfur dioxide (SO2), acid rain, NOx, and photochemical smog. Two specific topics, SO2 and acid rain control and vehicle emission control, are used to illustrate the actions that the government has taken and future plans. Finally, a case study of the Chinese capital, Beijing, is presented with a discussion of its main air pollution problems, recently implemented control measures and their effects, and future strategies for urban air quality improvement.
▪ Abstract Students of public policy sometimes envision an idealized policy process where competent data collection and incisive analysis on both sides of a debate lead to reasoned judgments and sound decisions. Unfortunately, numbers that prove decisive in policy debates are not always carefully developed, credibly documented, or correct. This paper presents four widely cited examples of numbers in the energy field that are either misleading or wrong. It explores the origins of these numbers, how they missed the mark, and how they have been misused by both analysts and the media. In addition, it describes and uses a three-stage analytical process for evaluating such statistics that involves defining terms and boundaries, assessing underlying data, and critically analyzing arguments.
▪ Abstract Fossil fuels play a crucial role in satisfying growing world energy demands, but their continued use could cause irreparable harm to the environment. Unless virtually all anthropogenic carbon dioxide is captured, either at the source or subsequently from the air, and disposed of safely and permanently, fossil fuels may have to be phased out over the next few decades. Sequestration of waste carbon dioxide will require methods that can safely store several trillion tons of carbon dioxide. Long-term storage of a gaseous substance is fraught with uncertainty and hazards, but carbonate chemistry offers permanent solutions to the disposal problem. Carbonates can be formed from carbon dioxide and metal oxides in reactions that are thermodynamically favored and exothermic, which result in materials that can be safely and permanently kept out of the active carbon stocks in the environment. Carbonate sequestration methods require the development of an extractive minerals industry that provides the base ions for neutralizing carbonic acid.
This article reviews energy indicators, which are developed to describe the links between energy use and human activity in a disaggregated manner. After briefly reviewing a number of early and current efforts to develop indicators, we discuss the basic concepts of various indicators and the methodologies used to derive them. We also review the use of decomposition methods to aid in the analysis of trends in energy use and comparisons of uses between countries. Findings from our comparative and time-series analyses of several industrialized countries illustrate the application of these methods. Using simplified methods for estimating the carbon released in direct combustion of fossil fuels, and in electricity and heat production, energy indicators can be extended to carbon emissions. These carbon indicators can play an important role in aiding negotiations over carbon reduction targets and evaluating progress toward meeting abatement goals.
▪ Abstract Underground storage in porous and permeable reservoir rocks is a technically feasible way to dispose of industrial quantities of carbon dioxide such as are produced by a fossil fuel–fired power plant. All the necessary steps are commercially proven and in use today. Extensive, naturally occurring CO2accumulations indicate that under favorable conditions CO2can be retained in underground reservoirs for millions of years. Large-scale commercial underground CO2sequestration has begun at the Sleipner West gas field in the North Sea. Some of the major issues to be addressed if this technology is to make an impact on CO2emissions to the atmosphere are cost of CO2capture, safety and security of storage, and public acceptability.
▪ Abstract Energy conservation in Chinese residential buildings merits attention in part due to China's large population, increased standard of living, and high volume of construction. This paper focuses on three major themes: issues exerting an upward pressure on residential energy use, policy for promoting energy conservation, and technical opportunities to decrease energy use and increase comfort. An increase in total floor area, increasing electric appliance ownership, and an increase in demand for heating and cooling characterize the residential sector. Space heating remains the dominant energy end-use. Relatively new buildings in cold regions of China, while a marked improvement over earlier construction, still suffer from inadequate insulation, leaky windows, and lack of attention to construction quality. Energy-conservation standards have addressed these issues in part, but further effort is needed to ensure code compliance. A survey of prospective homeowners shows that energy-efficient housing would best be promoted by marketing the combined benefits of natural lighting and ventilation, better quality, and savings in heating and air-conditioning energy costs, rather than only promoting a dwelling as “environmentally friendly” or offering reduced heating bills. Reviewed technologies concentrate on reductions in heating and cooling energy through improved site layout, building design, building envelope materials, ventilation, and alternative cooling equipment.
▪ Abstract Ozone (O3) is well documented as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. Most crops in developed countries are grown in summer when O3 concentrations are elevated and frequently are sufficiently high to reduce yields. This article examines the difficulties in scientifically determining the reduction in yield that results from the exposure of agricultural crops to surface O3 and then transforming that knowledge into efficient and effective regulatory standards. The different approaches taken by the United States and Europe in addressing this issue as well as the few studies that have been conducted to date in developing countries are examined and summarized. Extensive research was conducted in the United States during the 1980s but has not been continued. During the 1990s, the European community forged ahead with scientific research and innovative proposals for air-quality standards. These efforts included the development of a “critical level” (CL) for O3 based on a cumulative exposure above a cutoff concentration below which only an acceptable level of harm is incurred. Current research focuses on estimating O3 dosage to plants and incorporating this metric into regulatory standards. The US regulatory community can learn from current European scientific research and regulatory strategies, which argue strongly for a separate secondary standard for O3 to protect vegetation. Increasing impacts of O3 on crops are likely in developing countries as they continue to industrialize and their emissions of air pollutants increase. More research is needed on surface O3 concentrations in developing countries, on their projected increase, and on the sensitivity that crop cultivars used in developing countries have to O3. The threat of reduced agricultural yields due to increasing O3 concentrations may encourage developing countries to increase their energy efficiency and to use different energy sources. This could simultaneously achieve a local benefit through improved regional air quality and a global benefit through a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases.
▪ Abstract In addition to being scientifically exciting, commercially important, and environmentally essential, temperate forests have also become a key diplomatic item in international climate negotiations as potential sinks for carbon. This review presents the methods used to estimate carbon sequestration, identifies the constraints and opportunities for carbon sequestration in temperate forests, addresses the issues raised by the monitoring of carbon sequestration, and analyzes uncertainties pertaining to the sequestration of carbon by temperate forests. This review serves a dual purpose: It aims at informing policy makers about carbon sequestration in temperate forests and at making forest ecologists, biogeochemists, and atmospheric scientists aware of the structure of an international agreement to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and some of the real, still answered scientific questions that it poses.
[Figure: see text] ▪ Abstract I reflect on a career that has featured developing an advanced torpedo for submarine warfare during World War II, designing alternative nuclear reactors at the advent of nuclear power, guiding the development of the first institutions for technology assessment, assisting several of the early efforts at environmental policy analysis, and promoting experiments that have led to insights regarding the humanization of work. A recurring concern of mine, still unresolved, is how to give due weight, simultaneously, to two different visions of the scientific enterprise: an endeavor that must remain autonomous and an endeavor that must be driven by societal needs.
