Based on 1 051 survey observations from 83 villages in Northeast China and the conceptual framework of 'model cognition - whether to adopt - adoption intensity - adoption benefits', this study empirically analyses how farmers' cognition of the circular model of planting and breeding (CMPB) affects adoption decisions and adoption intensity, as well as the impact of adopting the CMPB on environmental efficiency. The results indicate that perceived economic benefits and perceived ease of use significantly increase farmers' adoption intensity. Moreover, adopting the CMPB has a significant positive effect on environmental efficiency; higher adoption intensity is associated with greater improvements in environmental efficiency. Additionally, internal circulation achieves higher environmental efficiency than external circulation. Therefore, the smallholder-based CMPB deserves greater attention. On this basis, the study suggests that farmers' adoption of the CMPB is driven by its perceived ease of use and economic benefits. At the same time, promoting and applying the CMPB in rural areas aligns with the macro-level policy objective of green agricultural development.
The integration of smallholder land and expanded agricultural operational scale are global agricultural development trends. Using 2012-2020 longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) combined with satellite-derived meteorological records, this study examines how temperature shocks influence land rental behaviour, supplemented by rigorous robustness checks. Results indicate that temperature shocks reduce per-hectare net income, deteriorate working conditions, and increase smallholders' likelihood of transferring out land - particularly elderly farmers supported by their children. Notably, factor inputs (e.g. fertilisers and irrigation water) in large-scale operations are less susceptible to temperature fluctuations, mitigating related environmental risks. The study concludes that moderate agricultural scale expansion constitutes a more efficient and climate-resilient production model. For smallholder-dominated countries/regions, measures such as optimising land rental mechanisms and enhancing climate adaptation support can mitigate temperature shock impacts and drive agricultural sustainable transformation.
It was widely expected that following European Union's enlargement in 2004, farmers in new member states would improve their performance by increasing the efficiency of their production processes. In this study, using the Farm Accountancy Data Network data, we look at changes in total factor productivity, a measure which captures how efficiently and intensely inputs are utilised in production, that took place in farms producing cereals in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia between 2004 and 2017. We find that in all four countries total factor productivity increased in the first years after the accession, but later declined. Overall, in the three former countries, total factor productivity in 2017 was higher than observed in 2004, whereas in Slovenia it was lower. This pattern largely corresponds to the dynamics observed with technological change: an initial technological progress was followed by a technological regress. Our results also suggest that over time farmers faced increasing problems with finding an optimal size of their operation. Finally, we observe that the technologies adopted on the farms were not used in an efficient way.
This paper evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of multivariate agricultural portfolios using the Stutzer ratio, an advanced measure that accounts for non-normal return distributions and downside risk. Three four-asset portfolios - grains, softs, and meats - are analysed in this study. The Stutzer ratio incorporates a risk-aversion parameter (θ) that penalises tail risk, providing a more accurate assessment of skewed and fat-tailed returns. Results show that Stutzer-optimised portfolios outperform naïve equal-weight portfolios in risk-adjusted terms, as optimisation effectively balances expected returns and downside exposure. Among the three portfolio categories, the softs portfolio exhibits the highest Stutzer ratio, with the meats portfolio following closely behind. Both portfolios have a relatively high tail-adjustment parameter (theta), indicating a reduced exposure to downside risk and a lower likelihood of extreme negative returns. Consequently, their risk-adjusted performance suggests greater return stability, making them particularly attractive to long-term investors.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused serious disruption to agricultural markets, affecting both food prices and food security. In our study, we examine how global economic problems, such as COVID-19 or wartime conditions, affect corn prices and their predictability. We used deep neural network models [Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)], experimenting with both simple and hybrid versions, as well as univariate and multivariate types. The results show that the GRU model outperformed the other models in predicting corn prices. It was also found that multivariate models tended to yield more accurate results than their univariate counterparts, suggesting that forecast quality can be significantly improved by including additional variables. In the robustness analysis, it was shown that the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 led to a deterioration in model performance. The research contributes to the development of forecasting methods for the corn market and provides a basis for decision-making strategies for market players. To ensure methodological rigour, the forecasting results were statistically validated using the Diebold-Mariano test.
This paper investigates the structural determinants of sustainable agricultural performance across the 27 European Union member states over the period 2012-2023, focusing on the interplay between economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Employing a panel quantile regression approach, the study captures the heterogeneous effects of organic farming practices, public support for agricultural research and development, income inequality, and environmental emissions on multiple dimensions of agricultural performance. The analysis underscores the importance of empirical evidence in designing integrated agricultural policies that enhance sustainability, competitiveness, and social cohesion, in alignment with key European strategies, including the Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2027, the European Green Deal, and the Farm to Fork strategy. The findings reveal that the influence of structural determinants varies significantly across the performance distribution, with stronger effects observed in lower-performing contexts. These results support increased public investment in agricultural research and innovation, the development of customised incentives for organic farming tailored to performance levels and farm structures, and the implementation of redistributive mechanisms to mitigate regional disparities in agricultural income. Higher agricultural income is consistently associated with greater value-added efficiency and lower ecological intensity, suggesting structural decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressure. Overall, the study highlights the need for targeted, data-driven policy interventions to foster innovation, resilience, and inclusive rural development across the European Union.
Integrating farmers into the modern agricultural industrial system is key to sustaining rural household income growth. Based on field survey data from rural areas in three western Chinese provinces, this study uses an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to analyse the impact of farmers' participation in agricultural supply chains on their income, and explores the heterogeneous effects of credit constraints and agricultural loans on the incomes of participating and non-participating farmers. The results show that supply chain participation significantly increases farmers' total and operational income, while driving the modernisation of agricultural production methods. Specifically, supply chain participation enables farmers to use agricultural loans efficiently to drive income growth and alleviate income constraints caused by credit restrictions. Furthermore, the positive effect of supply chain participation on operational income is more prominent, especially for low- and middle-income farmers. In contrast, the income-increasing benefits of agricultural loans are more pronounced among middle- and high-income farmers, reflecting differences in loan utilisation capacity across income groups.
Enhancing cropland carbon efficiency (CCE) is vital for carbon-neutral and sustainable agricultural development. In this paper, we use the minimum distance to strong efficient frontier with undesirable outputs model and survey data from wheat-maize farmers in the Yellow River Basin of China in 2020 to investigate the effect and mechanism of different tillage practices on CCE. The results show that the average CCE in the study area is 0.592 6, which has large potential for improvement. Among the tillage practices, reduced tillage with straw returning (RTS) achieves the highest mean CCE, followed by no-tillage with straw returning (NTS), and conventional tillage with straw returning performs the worst. Both NTS and RTS are positively associated with higher CCE, with a stronger effect for NTS. Mechanism test results indicate that these practices enhance CCE primarily by increasing yield and net carbon sequestration. NTS improves CCE by reducing energy use and emissions, and RTS tends to increase fertiliser and energy inputs, partially offsetting its efficiency gains. Heterogeneity analysis results further indicate that the positive effects are stronger among small-to-medium-scale, less-educated and elderly farmers. These findings provide micro-level evidence that conservation tillage can promote low-carbon and efficient agricultural production in China.
This study employs the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak as a quasi-natural experiment to assess its impact on pork prices and the underlying mechanisms. Utilising panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from January 2017 to December 2022, we apply a difference-in-differences (DID) approach combined with a moderating effect model. Furthermore, through DID quantile regression models, we delve into the impact of the epidemic on price volatility under varying initial pork price growth rates and regional institutional conditions. The findings reveal that the outbreak triggered a significant increase in the pork price, which averaged approximately 6%. During this process, the hog inventory exhibited a positive moderating effect on price increases, with steeper price hikes occurring during inventory declines. The outbreak further widened regional price disparities, with more pronounced increases occurring in areas experiencing earlier and steeper initial price rises, alongside more developed agricultural economies. Consequently, governments should adopt targeted regulatory strategies tailored to the distinct characteristics of pork price fluctuations. Simultaneously, enhancing coordination across all links in the industrial chain and optimising public information platforms can mitigate the impact of sudden animal disease outbreaks on the pork market.
Spain is one of the few EU countries that adopted genetically modified maize as a crop (1998) and has continued to harvest it ever since. This article aims to contribute to the history of the adoption of transgenic maize in the EU, where the Mediterranean (Sesamia nonagrioides) and European (Ostrinia nubilalis) corn borers are two of the most destructive pests. Our aim is to identify Spanish farmers' motivations and opinions on adopting this technology. Our model is a binary logistic regression that estimates the probability of adopting Bt maize. Our results reveal that the odds of adopting Bt are at least 44.0 times greater if the farm is in an area with corn borer infestation episodes than if it is not. The odds of adopting Bt are at least 4.9 times greater if farmers place a high importance on economic outcomes than if they do not. More adopters than non-adopters believe that Bt corn causes less damage to the environment than sulphates against the borer. No other opinion variable was clearly significant. We conclude that the most important reasons for Bt adoption were exposure to corn borer and concerns about the economic losses the borer could cause to the crop.
Land reforms can create tenure insecurity for farmers, a critical issue in developing countries with a dominant role of the state in agriculture. Our study focuses on Uzbekistan, characterised by a state-led transition from a more collective and socialist to a more individualistic and market-based approach to land allocation and management. To understand how farmers normalise tenure insecurity under land reallocation in Uzbekistan, we examine farmers' perceptions of tenure security under ongoing risks to their land tenure. We conducted a farm survey (n = 153), employing a novel approach to explore farmers' perceptions of tenure security and to elicit their preference patterns for key attributes of the land contract through a discrete choice experiment. We find that despite the institutionalisation of tenure insecurity, most farmers do not perceive it as a normal phenomenon. The choice model results show that farmers have the highest mean willingness to pay for contract security compared to other contract attributes. Our findings suggest that understanding and incorporating farmers' strong preference for secure land tenure is a crucial consideration for the design and implementation of land reform policies. Theoretically, our findings challenge the need for a dominant role of the state in agriculture.
Climate change is intensifying threats to food security across the developing countries, pushing vulnerable nations like Bangladesh towards a breaking point-where resilience is no longer an option but a survival imperative. Despite growing concerns, however limited empirical research exists on how climate resilience influences food security across rural and urban farming households. This study examines climate resilience in northwestern Bangladesh and its impact on farming households' food security. Using multistage random sampling, 498 households across 16 villages in extreme climate zones were surveyed. A climate resilience index (CRI) was developed to assess resilience, and a binary logistic model analysed its effect on food security; the findings indicate a positive association between them. Other key determinants of food security include household income, non-farm employment, crop diversity, education level of the household head and farm size. Also, urban households exhibit greater resilience than rural ones, with 38.7% and 32.8% classified as food secure, respectively. Enhancing climate resilience through adaptive strategies can improve food security, while off-farm activities provide critical financial support. Policy interventions, such as government or NGOled agricultural financing, could further strengthen food security.
African swine fever (ASF) has spread rapidly, substantially disrupting the pork market. In this study, we treat the 2018 ASF outbreak in China as a quasi-natural experiment, using staggered difference-in-differences (DID) and spatial DID methods to assess its effect on pork prices. We use a structural vector autoregression model to identify the sources of price fluctuations. In the study, we also explore the mechanisms and heterogeneity in the effects of ASF on pork prices. The results show that (i) ASF significantly raises pork prices across various provinces; (ii) live pig prices are positively correlated with finishing pig feed prices, piglet prices and pork prices in the long term but negatively correlated with the ASF index; (iii) the key drivers of live pig price fluctuations include price inertia (59%), finishing pig feed prices (13%), piglet prices (11.5%), pork prices (10.8%) and the ASF index (5.6%); (iv) for pork prices, the largest driver is live pig prices (53.4%), followed by finishing pig feed prices (14%), piglet prices (13.6%), price inertia (13.4%) and the ASF index (5.6%); (v) mechanism analysis reveals that ASF affects pork price fluctuations through farming costs and wholesale-retail profits. The heterogeneity analysis results reveal that provinces with higher internet information levels, weaker agricultural development and those in the eastern region are more vulnerable to the effects of ASF. On the basis of these findings, we offer targeted policy recommendations.
In view of the increasing negative impacts of climate change, international cereal trade has become a growing concern. This study examines the impact of climate change on cereal exports. The analysis consists of two stages. In the first stage, we investigate convergence in cereal exports across countries and identify potential clusters of similar export behaviour. To this end, club convergence analysis was conducted using export data from 95 countries for the period 2000-2022. The results reveal that countries are grouped into seven distinct clubs, indicating shared convergence paths. In the second stage, the impact of climate change on the formation of these clubs is analysed using the ordered logit model. This model assesses how climatic factors influence a country's likelihood of belonging to a particular convergence club. The findings show that precipitation and carbon emissions significantly increase the likelihood of being in the top two clubs with high cereal trade. This suggests that climate change is a critical dynamic in shaping clubs.
This study investigates whether participation in agricultural global value chains (GVCs) leads to slower growth in manufacturing for the period of 1995-2022 in 44 countries. Our baseline estimations indicate that forward GVC integration in agriculture, crop cultivation and animal production supports manufacturing growth. We further explore whether the income level of countries influences the impact of agricultural GVCs on manufacturing growth. Forward participation in agriculture, crop cultivation, and animal production in developing countries increases growth. However, in developed countries, deeper forward integration in animal production and backward integration in crop cultivation have a substantial negative impact on manufacturing growth. Furthermore, we test if resource reliance in manufacturing matters. Our findings reveal that forward participation in agriculture, crop cultivation, and animal production stimulates growth in resource-based manufacturing. For non-resource-based manufacturing, higher integration into backward participation in animal production drives growth. Overall, our results indicate that exporting agricultural intermediaries might not necessarily be a resource curse, instead, they can serve as a catalyst for industrialisation in developing countries.
This study examines the factors influencing adherence to the Mediterranean diet from a socioeconomic perspective, focusing on Italy as a representative Mediterranean country. The observed decline in adherence to this diet in favour of Western dietary patterns highlights the need for a deeper understanding of the factors influencing this trend. Specifically, the analysis investigates sociodemographic and economic variables that may influence adherence to the Mediterranean diet. On the other hand, it assesses the role of individual characteristics related to environmental concerns and pro-environmental behaviours, considering that the Mediterranean diet is widely recognised not only as a healthy but also a sustainable dietary model. The study utilises secondary data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics, based on a representative sample of 34 151 individuals, employing an ordinal logistic regression model. The findings reveal that sociodemographic factors - such as gender, age, education, economic status, family structure, and region of residence - significantly and positively affect adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Regarding environmental concerns and behaviours, the study finds a strong association between environmental awareness and higher adherence. Therefore, policy interventions and educational campaigns aimed at promoting the Mediterranean diet should adopt a holistic approach that includes the environmental dimension.
Global warming has altered regional temperatures and precipitation, potentially leading to deviations from planned biofuel production and emission-reduction targets. This study revisits the market equilibrium of agricultural and biofuel production under climate risk, using updated IPCC projections. It employs a two-stage stochastic programming model to examine the overall effect of climate change on Taiwan's biofuel production. The results indicate that biofuel production depends on the level of climate impact and emission prices. In addition, total input use is generally between 2.79 and 4.72 million tonnes. The higher the gasoline price, the sooner the producer will exhaust its production capacity. While Taiwan could sustain biofuel production when gasoline and emission prices are high, a substantial land-use change would occur. Approximately 74 500-81 900 hectares of idle land will return to production. However, the increase in cropland supply may not lead to biofuel expansion, as it has a limited ability to offset emissions.
This study investigates the effects of digital economy (DE) on agricultural land use (ALU) in seven sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, specifically from 2006 to 2022. Using a moderating mediation model on panel data, the work explores the extent to which the DE, as proxied by fixed telephone subscriptions, internet usage, and mobile penetration, influences the degree and intensity of ALU. The results indicate that ALU is often supported by DE, as technology will lay the groundwork for improved land management and agriculture. Results show that DE has a positive influence on ALU, with a more substantial effect being observed in countries such as Kenya and South Africa, where more developed digital infrastructure and governance are in place. In contrast, Uganda and Zambia exhibit lower impacts due to lower levels of digitalisation and governance barriers. The patent applications (PAs) and water management represent the positive mediators of the efficiency of land-use improvement. The study highlights the need for government-enabling policies and digital infrastructure so that the promise of digital technologies and their uptake for agricultural production in SSA is fully fulfilled. Whenever technology is integrated with an appropriate resource management policy, SSA societies have the potential to achieve sustainable agricultural development and food security.
Agricultural logistics face unique challenges such as seasonal demand fluctuations, perishability, and geographic dispersion. The paper systematically analyses 63 peer-reviewed articles from 2013 to 2025, focusing on key optimisation techniques, including multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), vehicle routing problems (VRP), and path planning problems (PPP). The findings highlight how logistics optimisation can reduce operational costs, improve resource utilisation, and enhance supply chain resilience. Additionally, the study identifies gaps in inbound logistics research and emphasises the need for further integration of digital technologies. Future research should focus on comprehensive, technology-driven solutions to improve adaptability and transparency in agricultural supply chains. Key findings reveal that optimised logistics models can lead to cost reductions of up to 58%, emissions savings of over 60%, and significant improvements in delivery time, field efficiency, and customer satisfaction.
