This paper aims to verify if there is any effect in the income distribution for the Mexican economy when applying a tax on fossil fuels in order to reduce CO2 emissions. In order to reach this goal a computable general equilibrium model was built following the Shoven and Whalley method. It is observed that the application of a tax achieves a reduction in fossil fuel demand, but it does not have any meaningful consequence on the income redistribution of the society. All the levels of the economy have a loss in welfare as a consequence of the application of this tax.
The Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Mexico (EUMFTA) was enforced in 2000, becoming one of the most important transatlantic trade agreements. The goal of this research is to analyze the results of this agreement a decade after the signature. A gravity model is estimated for a sample of 60 countries along the period 1994-2011. The results indicate that such an agreement has given rise to an increase in the bilateral trade flows between these two commercial partners.
This paper is aimed at analyzing the main problems concerning fat-tailed asset return distributions. In doing so, a sample of Colombian stock returns over a period of time ranging from 2001 to 2010 is considered. The main conclusion drawn from this case study is that any model facing leptokurtosis has to take into account the particular informational issues related to stationary-normality tests of stock-market return series; the best fitting criteria which include the main no normal characteristics of empirical return distributions by stock groups; the idiosyncratic aspects of those stocks showing differentiated behaviors; and the final statistical evaluation by the risk-manager. Ignoring any of these steps means overlooking the well-documented financial fact that empirical fat-tailed return distributions are not the same in all markets, and that neither are they caused by the same reasons. Leptokurtosis is a particular problem of any stock market, and so there is no universal statistical method to deal with it.
This work analyzes the predictive ability of some cyclical indices for the turning points of the Mexican economy. The growth cycle approach adopted re- quires working with detrended series, and so several detrending methods were tried. A double Hodrick-Prescott filter application produced the best results in terms of revisions. Then, the coincident and leading indices were estimated with
This paper applies fuzzy clustering techniques to developed and emerg- ing economies in East Asia, in order to arrive at an identification of potential subgroups of economies for monetary union. The statistical criteria employed is the one suggested by the Optimal Currency Areas theory, and the period exam- ined includes the recent global crisis. Three alternative monetary anchor coun- tries are proposed, namely the United States, Japan and China, and hence, to an extent, the analysis does indicate the relative importance of the three worlds larg- est economies to East Asia. Due to the endogeneity of the convergence criteria in the eurozone, founding member states of emu are used as a point of reference for East Asia to indicate the level of preparedness for monetary union in this region. Findings indicate that Singapore and Hong Kong are relatively prepared for inte- gration. In addition, results do also signify the dominance of Japan despite the prevalence of the dollar standard in the region.
This paper aims to analyze the growth and convergence of human development in Latin American countries, grouped in areas of economic interest, through the hybrid Human Development Index for the period 1970-2010. We find that all groups of Latin-American countries have higher levels of human development than the world average, mainly due to social variables, being below the average in per capita income. The analysis of sigma and beta convergence shows a decrease of disparities in hybrid HDI across Latin America to common steady states until early 2000. The hybrid HDI components responsible for this convergence have been life expectancy for all groups of countries, and educational variables for the Andean Community (Ancom) and the Central American and Caribbean ones. In GDP per capita, all Latin American countries seem to have converged to different steady states.
This paper develops a socioeconomic model to analyze the construction and ulterior collapse of an entrepreneurial diaspora. The mathematical model is motivat...
This paper proposes the design of an early warning system (EWS) to evaluate the possibility of public debt crisis in Mexico. For the EWS construction we use the signal detection theory based on non-parametric statistics and exploratory data analysis. We generated a mainly classified index, which is able to adjust to debt fluctuations. The model is estimated using data for the period 1990-2010, taking financial ratios as classifiers, and as a target variable the total net debt of the public sector as a proportion of GDP. Our results are consistent with the theoretical proposition. This article is suggested as a manual to build up a monitoring tool that allows macroprudential analysis of public debt.
Some countries, including Mexico, are drug producers and exporters, although their domestic consumption is relatively low. They count with very few tools and resources to reduce drug demand (this, due to an exogenous variable), but they face a high social cost which is mainly caused by the activities of criminal groups. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these groups using economic theory, and comes to it showing two things: a) production and drug traffic induce criminality, and the delinquents have a high probability of becoming hitmen, and b) public spending to fight drug cartels can cause criminals to violate agreements among them, leading to an increase in violence. Evidence for Mexico is presented.
Resumen: Se propone una metodologia para la estimacion del valor en riesgo ( v a r ) del indice de precios y cotizaciones ( ipc ) de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores mediante el uso combinado de modelos autorregresivos y medias moviles ( arma ); tres dife-rentes modelos de la familia arch , de los cuales uno es simetrico ( garch ) y dos asi-metricos ( gjr - garch y egarch ); y la teoria de valores extremos. Los modelos arma se usaron para obtener residuales no correlacionados que sirvieron de base para el analisis de valores extremos. Los modelos garch , gjr - garch y egarch , al incluir en el modelo las volatilidades pasadas, son particularmente utiles tanto en periodos de inestabilidad como de calma. Mas aun, los modelos asimetricos gjr - garch y egarch modelan de manera distinta el impacto de los shocks positivos y negativos del mercado. Todo esto surge de la necesidad de calcular la perdida maxima que puede tener el ipc en un cierto nivel de confiabilidad y en un periodo de tiempo dado, mediante modelos mas eficientes que estimen la volatilidad de manera di-namica. En forma paralela se uso el metodo
Este articulo identifica y calcula los costos de traspaso y efectos de red entre los dos principales operadores moviles en Mexico: Telcel y Movistar. Para esto, se calibra el modelo de Suleymanova y Wey (2008) y se presenta evidencia adicional. Se encuentra que los costos de traspaso son mas relevantes que los efectos de red, lo cual genera un efecto fat-cat. Estos costos han disminuido a lo largo del tiempo pero siguen siendo altos, lo cual inhibe la competencia. Son ademas asimetricos, al ser los usuarios de Telcel quienes enfrentan costos mas altos. Los costos de traspaso relevantes son los que se derivan de la busqueda y comparacion de informacion, y aquellos creados por los efectos de red mediante tarifas
This paper describes the dynamics of economic performance for the sub-national Mexican states from 1970 to 2006; the state variables used are the levels and ...
This article identifies and calculates switching costs and network effects between the two leading mobile operators in Mexico: Telcel and Movistar. In order to do this, the model created by Suleymanova & Wey (2008) was calibrated, and additional evidence is presented. The study finds that switching costs are more relevant than network effects, which generates a fat-cat effect. These costs have declined over time but remain high, inhibiting competition. The costs are asymmetrical, as Telcel users face higher costs. The relevant switching costs are the ones derived from search and comparison of information, and those created by the network effects through tariffs.
This paper aims to analyze the growth and convergence of human de- velopment in Latin American countries, grouped in areas of economic interest, through the ...
Educational quality in Mexico is a recurrent topic in the country's pub- lic agenda. For this reason, better information about its determinants is required to guide policy makers. This discussion is particularly relevant within the context of the educational reform proposed by the federal government. Existing research for Mexican students is limited because it does not take into account the change in scores, or it is constrained by regional analysis. The aim of the present research is to fill this gap in the literature by using longitudinal data to study the impact of school characteristics on educational achievement, building a model that takes into account changes in educational achievement through time. Because existing data does not allow the tracking of students through time or their linkage to indi- vidual teachers, this article uses intra-cohort data for students that participated in the national standardized test enlace for primary and secondary schools be- tween 2007 and 2010. This paper addresses endogeneity problems using fixed ef- fects models, hlm models and spatial techniques to associate school location with census data at the neighborhood level. This research provides elements to guide public policies focused on increasing student achievement. Results show that teachers' attendance and punctuality, evaluation of teachers' knowledge of cur- riculum and constant evaluation of student performance have a positive relation- ship to student achievement growth. Additionally, there is a persistent effect of the quality of school infrastructure, teaching materials and socioeconomic level of students. These results could be useful to provide more information for the cur- rent debate on educational reform.
Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) in each state between July 1997 and December 2011. We find that Mexican states are highly heterogeneous with respect to the degree of association between the fluctuations of state and national employment levels. Fluctuations in state employment are highly cross-correlated only among 12 of the 32 states, and the sources of these fluctuations seem to be the shocks to national employment. Cyclical synchronization across states' employment levels and between state and national employment levels is high among these states, although only in four of them the number of contractions estimated equaled that of national employment; these 12 states are located in the northern border with the United States, in the western-central and the central regions of the country. On the contrary, in states where the degree of co-movement between state and national employment is low -as it is the case in northwest-central, southern, and east-southern states, the source of state employment fluctuations seems to be mainly associated with regional or state factors-. Among this latter group of states employment does not exhibit cycles of the classical type, or if they do exhibit such cycles the degree of cyclical synchronization with national employment is very low.
Unlike previous theoretical studies, we examine the welfare effects of a merger when participating firms are in a pollution-intensive sector. With passive environmental policy we show that profitable mergers reduce welfare; and this is because the reduction in consumer surplus and tax revenue dominates any rise in profit and utility. On the contrary, with active policies we show that profitable mergers are welfare enhancing due to lower gross pollution, higher consumer surplus, lower tax costs and efficiency gains. The results imply that though environmental policies are adopted for the primary purpose of reducing pollution, such policies may have a negative effect on social welfare if they do not take into account the market structure and competitiveness of sectors.
This paper estimates the distributive and regional effects of firms with market power in the case of Mexico. It presents evidence that the welfare losses due to the exercise of monopoly power are not only significant, but also larger, in relative terms, for the poor. Moreover, the losses are different for the urban and rural sectors, as well as for each of the states of Mexico, being the inhabitants of the poorest ones the most affected by firms with market power.
This work proposes an approach for estimating value at risk (VaR) of the Mexican stock exchange index (IPC) by using a combination of the autoregressive moving average models (ARMA); three different models of the arch family, one symmetric (GARCH) and two asymmetric (GJR-GARCH and EGARCH); and the extreme value theory (EVT). The ARMA models were initially used to obtain uncorrelated residuals, which were later used for the analysis of extreme values. The GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models, by including past volatility, are particularly useful both in instability and calm periods. Moreover, the asymmetric models GJR-GARCH and EGARCH handle differently the impact of positive and negative shocks in the market. The importance of the IPC in the Mexican economy raises the need to study its variations, particularly its downward movement; so, we propose to use VaR to calculate the maximum loss that IPC may have, at a certain level of reliability, in a given period of time, using more efficient models to dynamically quantify volatility. The Riskmetrics approach was parallelly used as a way to compare the methodology proposed. The results indicate that the ARMA-GARCH-EVT methodology showed a better performance than Riskmetrics, because of the simultaneous adjustment of ARMA-GARCH models for returns and variances respectively. Although estimates of the EGARCH models had fewer violations of VaR, the estimates of the three models used for volatility were more accurate than the others, evaluated at the same error and reliability levels through the Kupiec Likelihood Ratio test.
Resumen es: Este trabajo estudia la informacion de 357 profesores o investigadores de 28 instituciones educativas de economia del pais que han publicado, por lo meno...
