Research Originality: While numerous studies have examined exchange rate determinants in Indonesia, limited evidence integrates key macroeconomic variables within a unified framework while comparing conventional econometric and machine learning approaches. Research Objectives: This study examines the effects of inflation, interest rates, money supply, trade balance, and foreign exchange reserves on the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate and compares the forecasting performance of VECM and machine learning models. Research Methods: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to analyze long-run and short-run relationships, while Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) are used for forecasting. Monthly data from January 2010 to December 2024 are analyzed. Forecasting performance is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Empirical Results: The results indicate a long-run cointegrating relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. In the short run, money supply significantly affects exchange rate movements. Among the forecasting models, LSTM achieves the highest predictive accuracy based on MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. Implications: The findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in maintaining exchange rate stability and demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques, particularly LSTM, for exchange rate forecasting in Indonesia. JEL Classification: C32, C45, E44, F31 How to Cite:Akbar, A. F. (2026). What Drives the Indonesian Rupiah? Evidence from VECM and Machine Learning. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 571-584. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.51329.
Research Originality: The originality of this research stems from its extended observation period, the inclusion of detailed macroeconomic control variables, and the analysis of both immediate and sustained effects of remittances on economic growth. Research Objectives: This study aims to analyze the impact of remittances on economic growth in 22 Asian countries over the period 2004–2023. Research Methods: This study employs a panel data approach using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address econometric issues such as endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity, while incorporating variables including foreign direct investment, inflation, population growth, education, household consumption, government expenditure, and exports. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that remittances have a positive effect on economic growth in both the short- and long-run. However, the short-run impact is not always statistically significant. Exports and inflation show positive effects, whereas foreign direct investment and education show negative effects in some specifications. Implications: These results suggest that remittances play an important role as a complementary source of development financing in Asian economies, and policymakers should encourage their productive use to strengthen sustainable economic growth. JEL Classification: F24, O11, C23, E31 How to Cite:Budiyanto, V., Wasiaturrahma., & Wibowo, W. (2026). The Impact of Remittance Inflows on Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 407-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50455.
Research Originality: This study assesses Indonesia's move to join the BRICS as a pragmatic economic strategy through an efficiency analysis and an empirical comparison. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to measure government spending efficiency, and panel data analysis is used to compare fiscal performance across BRICS countries. Research Objectives: The research seeks to analyze how government effectiveness (GE), corruption perception index (CPI), trade openness (TO), and industrial value added (IND) shape government spending efficiency (GSE) across BRICS countries during the 2000–2023 period. Research Methods: A two-stage approach is used: DEA estimates fiscal efficiency, while panel regression identifies its determinants. Empirical Results: Empirical findings reveal that Indonesia consistently maintained strong fiscal efficiency, outperforming several original BRICS members even prior to its accession. The determinants of efficiency varied between periods: from 2000 to 2009, GE, CPI, and TO positively influenced GSE, while IND had a negative association. In contrast, from 2010 to 2023, GE and TO exerted adverse effects. Implications: These findings suggest that maintaining fiscal efficiency in Indonesia depends on enhancing governance quality and strengthening industrial competitiveness. JEL Classification: C67, H11, H50 How to Cite:Bistyantri, N. B., & Kurniasih, L. (2026). Government Spending Efficiency in BRICS Countries: Implications for Indonesia’s Accession. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 437-452. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.46845.
Research Originality: This study fills a gap in prior research by jointly examining Islamic financial literacy, intellectual capital, and working capital in Baznas Microfinance Desa and by testing financial performance as the mechanism through which these factors sustain microenterprises. Research Objectives: This study analyzes the determinants of microenterprise sustainability among Baznas Microfinance Desa partners in East Java, Indonesia. Research Methods: Using a quantitative explanatory design, data were collected from 285 respondents through five-point Likert-scale questionnaires and analyzed with PLS-SEM. Empirical Results: Islamic financial literacy, intellectual capital, and working capital significantly enhance financial performance and microenterprise sustainability. Working capital shows the strongest contribution, while financial performance has the largest direct effect on sustainability and significantly mediates the relationships between the three determinants and sustainability. Implications: Islamic microfinance programs should prioritize working-capital management while strengthening Islamic financial literacy and capability-oriented mentoring to build intellectual capital, as these factors improve financial performance and, in turn, sustain microenterprises. JEL Classification: D14, G21, G32, L25 How to Cite:Bastomi, M. (2026). Microenterprise Sustainability in Islamic Microfinance. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 615-626. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50242.
Research Originality: Departing from studies that assume a linear or monotonic innovation–sustainability link, this study is among the first to provide global panel evidence of a nonlinear, income-differentiated innovation–sustainability paradox, using an SDG index adjusted to avoid conceptual overlap with human development measures, and finds robust results from lagged identification. Research Objectives: This study examines whether innovation consistently promotes sustainable development across 88 countries from 2018 to 2023, testing for nonlinearity and income-group heterogeneity. Research Methods: A balanced panel fixed-effects framework estimates three specifications using an adjusted SDG index, namely linear, quadratic, and interaction models. Robustness is assessed via lagged GII, with structural heterogeneity examined through income-group subgroup analysis. Empirical Results: GDP per capita positively predicts SDG performance with diminishing returns. GII follows an inverted U-shaped pattern (GII* ≈ 21.25), confirming the innovation–sustainability paradox. Most countries already operate past the turning point. Among Middle- and Low-Income economies, the threshold is higher (GII* ≈ 40.50), whereas High-Income economies exhibit a structural plateau. Implications: Innovation policy must be calibrated to the stage of development. Advanced economies should redirect mature innovation systems toward sustainability objectives, while developing economies should expand capacity with directionality embedded from the outset. JEL Classification: O31, O44, Q01, C33 How to Cite:Setianingrum, D. A., & Istiqomah. (2026). The Innovation–Sustainability Paradox: Nonlinear Evidence from a Global Panel. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 543-556. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50944.
Research Originality: This study offers an original external instrumental variable (IV) analysis of the causal link between state political risk and industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa, using constitutionally fixed executive elections as a novel instrument. Research Objectives: This study tests the hypothesis that state-sanctioned violence negatively impacts industrial growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Research Methods: This study employs a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) model on a panel of 30 African countries (2000–2023). State political risk is measured by the Political Terror Scale, which captures state-sanctioned violence and is instrumented by fixed election timing. Industrial value-added growth is the dependent variable. Empirical Results: We find no statistically significant causal effect of state-sanctioned violence on industrial growth. This null result is robust across 2SLS, Limited Information Maximum Likelihood(LIML), and GMM estimators. Implications: Industrial policy in moderately unstable African contexts should prioritize core economic and regulatory constraints over broad political risk mitigation. The findings point to significant industrial resilience. JEL Classification: P00, D72, O14, C36, O55 How to Cite:Madyangove, T. N., & Rezki, J. F. (2026). State Political Risk and Industrial Performance: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 453-470. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.49642.
Research Originality: This study provides new empirical evidence on the global impact of digital readiness on economic growth by comparing high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Unlike previous studies focusing on single countries or regions, this research examines whether digital readiness contributes differently across income groups. Research Objectives: This study aims to explore the development of digital readiness and analyze its effect on economic growth across countries by income level. Research Methods: The study uses descriptive analysis and panel-data regression across 105 countries for 2019–2023. Digital readiness is measured by the Networked Readiness Index, comprising 46 indicators. PCA is applied to construct the index, and panel regression examines the relationship between digital readiness and economic growth across income groups. Empirical Results: Digital readiness significantly boosts economic growth across all income groups, with the strongest effect in high-income countries, a moderate effect in middle-income countries, and the weakest in low-income countries. Implications: The findings show that digital readiness has become a key driver of global economic growth, reflecting increasing access to and adoption of digital technologies across countries at different income levels. JEL Classification: O33, O40, F63 How to Cite:Rindayati, W., Aisyah, S., Gerhana, & Zahra, Z. N. (2026). How Do Digital Readiness and Economic Growth Compare Across Income Groups?. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 355-372. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.51553.
Research Originality: This study contributes to the literature by incorporating employment density as a proxy of economic agglomeration into an extended STIRPAT framework to examine its nonlinear relationship with district-level carbon emissions in Indonesia. Research Objectives: This study aims to investigate whether economic agglomeration promotes emission efficiency or intensifies environmental pressure, and to identify potential nonlinear dynamics across Indonesian districts. Research Methods: This study employs a balanced panel dataset of 514 districts and municipalities in Indonesia over the period 2017–2024. A two-way fixed-effects model is estimated within an extended STIRPAT framework, with a quadratic specification to capture nonlinear effects. Empirical Results: The results indicate that economic agglomeration is associated with lower carbon emissions per capita, suggesting efficiency effects. However, the nonlinear estimation reveals a U-shaped relationship: agglomeration reduces emissions at lower levels but increases environmental pressure beyond a threshold. The findings also indicate substantial regional heterogeneity. Implications: The results suggest that agglomeration does not inherently lead to environmental improvements. Differentiated policies should strengthen regional growth and efficiency in low-density areas while prioritizing low-carbon transitions and congestion mitigation in dense regions. JEL Classification: Q56, R12, O18 How to Cite:Nugroho, R.A. & Hartono, D. (2026). Economic Agglomeration and District-Level Carbon Emissions in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 471-486. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50229.
Research Originality: This research is original in its examination of the impact of macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Developing-8 countries, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence and country heterogeneity. Research Objectives: The study aims to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of external debt, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, inflation, and balance of trade on economic growth in selected Developing-8 countries over the period 1997–2024. Research Methods: The study employs a Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL model combined with the Error Correction Model by using secondary panel data from six members of the Developing-8 countries to capture dynamic relationships and long-run equilibrium, supported by unit root, cross-sectional dependence, and robustness tests. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that external debt and exchange rates have positive short-run effects on growth, while inflation and the trade balance have negative immediate effects. Foreign domestic investment shows no significant short-run effect but becomes positive in the long run, and the error correction term confirms a stable long-run relationship. Implications: The results suggest that policymakers should ensure sustainable external debt management, maintain exchange rate stability, enhance the effectiveness of foreign domestic investment, and control inflation to support long-term economic growth in Developing-8 countries. JEL Classification: E31, F31, F34, O47 How to Cite:Nehe, R. L., & Suhartoko, Y. B. (2024). Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Developing-8 Countries: Panel Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 339-354. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50607.
Research Originality: This study applies spatial autocorrelation to assess the efficiency of zakat distribution, highlighting hotspot–coldspot patterns and proposing a spatially aligned framework to reduce regional disparities and support inclusive development. Research Objectives: This study analyzes the spatial patterns of zakat distribution and their implications for distribution efficiency and reducing regional inequality. Research Methods: Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and Getis–Ord Gi* to identify spatial linkages among regions. Empirical Results: The results indicate significant spatial clustering in zakat distribution, with hotspots concentrated in urban and economic centers due to strong institutional capacity, while coldspots are found in remote areas with high poverty and weak institutions, potentially reinforcing spatial inequality. Implications: These findings emphasize the importance of spatial mapping as the basis for region-based zakat distribution. Overall, zakat has the potential to become a strategic instrument for reducing inequality and driving inclusive economic development if it is integrated into evidence-based regional development policies. JEL Classification: F21, O16, O53, C23 How to Cite:Anggraeni, R.R. T., Siregar, H., Juanda, B., & Beik, I. S. (2026). Spatial Distribution and Cluster Analysis of Zakat Allocation: Identifying Hotspots and Coldspots. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 601-614. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50477.
Research Originality: This study offers novel insights by examining the mediating role of human capital in the relationship between cultural capital and regional economic development in Indonesia. Research Objectives: This study aims to examine the effect of cultural capital on Regional economic development and to investigate the mediating role of human capital in the relationship between cultural capital and regional economic development. Research Methods: This study employs panel data regression analysis using the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and path analysis across 34 Indonesian provinces over the period 2019–2023. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that cultural capital positively affects regional economic development. Cultural tourist attractions and intangible cultural heritage do not have a significant effect on regional economic development. Furthermore, human capital plays a significant moderating role in the relationship between cultural capital and regional economic development, suggesting that cultural capital contributes more effectively to regional development. Implications: This study suggests that policymakers should continue to preserve and strengthen existing cultural capital across regions to improve access to public services and enhance living conditions. Ultimately, such an approach can support sustainable economic development. JEL Classification: C23, R11, O10, O15, Z10 How to Cite:Wibisono, A. P., & Sarjiyanto. (2026). Sustainable Regional Economic Development through Cultural and Human Capital: Evidence from Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 487-500. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50459.
Research Originality: This study provides recent provincial evidence from Indonesia (2010–2024) on the nexus between poverty, economic growth, and stunting. Research Objectives: This study aims to investigate the effects of poverty and economic growth on stunting prevalence in Indonesia, using parental education level and the open unemployment rate as proxies. Research Methods: This study employs path analysis using a natural-log approach, analyzing data from 2000 to 2023. Key variables include socioeconomic determinants and stunting prevalence. Empirical Results: The findings of this study include: poverty has a negative and significant effect on parental education and open unemployment, while economic growth has no significant effect on parental education and open unemployment; poverty affects the prevalence of stunting through parental education and open unemployment, while economic growth does not affect the prevalence of stunting through parental education and open unemployment. Implications: The findings suggest that reducing stunting requires inclusive economic growth and effective poverty alleviation. Therefore, policies should focus on strengthening social protection and improving access to nutrition and health services. JEL Classification: I21, E24, C32, I10, I31 How to Cite:Dwiningwarni, S S., Andari, S. Y. D., & Yaqin, H. A. (2026). Poverty and Economic Growth: The Socioeconomic Determinants of Stunting Prevalence in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 373-390. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50601.
Research Originality: This study integrates organizational capabilities and productivity outcomes to explain how generative artificial intelligence enhances productivity in Indonesian enterprises. Research Objectives: The study aims to analyze the effects of perceived usefulness, technological readiness, and organizational support on Generative AI (GenAI) adoption intensity, and evaluate the effect of GenAI adoption intensity on MSME productivity in Indonesia. Research Methods: This study used data from a quantitative cross-sectional survey of 200 Indonesian MSMEs with PLS-SEM to examine relationships among proposed variables in the model. Empirical Results: Perceived usefulness and technological readiness were found to significantly increase the intensity of GenAI adoption. Perceived usefulness and organizational support were also found to positively influence MSME productivity, while GenAI adoption intensity and technological readiness did not show a direct influence. Implications: MSME development programs should strengthen artificial intelligence literacy, workflow integration, managerial support, and responsible standards to generate measurable productivity gains. JEL Classification: D22, L25, M15, O33 How to Cite:Murniati., Rianto, S., Nazzal, A. G. T., & Sekardhani, M. (2026). Generative Artificial Intelligence Productivity in Indonesian Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 515-530. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.51244.
Research Originality: This study extends existing knowledge on corporate sukuk by moving beyond static determinant frameworks and examining the dynamic relationships between firm fundamentals and issuance behavior. The analysis offers new insights into the factors underlying sustained access to Sharia-compliant financing. Research Objectives: This study investigates whether financial performance, capital structure, firm size, and asset growth predict the issuance behavior of Indonesian sukuk issuers. Research Methods: Using quarterly panel data from the five most active issuers during 2015Q1-2024Q4, this study applies panel Granger causality and panel VAR with impulse response and variance decomposition. Empirical Results: The findings reveal that firm size Granger-causes sukuk issuance, whereas return on equity, net profit margin, capital structure, and asset growth do not show Granger-causal effects at conventional levels. Issuance also exhibits strong persistence and responds more strongly to firm-size shocks than to other firm fundamentals. Implications: These results suggest that policies to deepen the sukuk market should reduce issuance frictions, improve disclosure quality, and expand access to Sharia-compliant financing for mid-sized firms. JEL Classification: C33, G23, G32, O16 How to Cite:Aqil, A., Suriani, S., & Sentosa, D. S. (2026). Corporate Sukuk Issuance and Firm Fundamentals: A Dynamic Causality Approach from Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 585-600. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50909.
Research Originality: This study assesses the impact of deposit insurance on depositors’ confidence and credit stability, incorporating gap dynamics, crisis phases (pre-, during, and post-COVID-19), and bank ownership heterogeneity. Research Objectives: This study examines the effect of deposit insurance on depositor confidence and its implications for deposit stability, and the impact of deposit stability on banks’ confidence in credit allocation. Research Methods: Three datasets- monthly macroeconomic time-series data (January 2002–May 2023) and two panel datasets covering October 2005–May 2023 and March 2012–May 2023 are estimated using PLS and OLS. Empirical Results: Deposit insurance effectively stabilizes depositor confidence, especially at private institutions. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, deposit insurance became increasingly critical in maintaining market sentiment. This stability in depositor confidence drives deposit accumulation, which in turn catalyzes credit supply both during and after crises. Additionally, findings suggest that depositor behavior and bank stability are sensitive to domestic and global economic fluctuations. Implications: The study recommends strengthening deposit insurance institutions and improving coordination among institutions to stabilize deposits, credit, and the financial system. JEL Classification: G21, G22, G28, E32 How to Cite:Utama, C. (2026). From Depositors’ Confidence to Credit Stability: The Role of Deposit Insurance. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 421-436. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.46602.
Research Originality: This study provides micro-level evidence on the dual effects of fertilizer subsidies on rice farmers’ production and profitability, a dimension rarely examined simultaneously at the household level in Indonesia. Using data from two contrasting rice-producing regions, the study isolates subsidy effects on both physical output and farm profit while controlling for input costs and price conditions. Research Objectives: To analyze the effects of fertilizer subsidies on rice production and farm profit in Karawang (West Java) and Lombok (West Nusa Tenggara). Research Methods: OLS regression was applied to cross-sectional data from 51 rice-farming households. Two models were estimated: a production function and a profit function. Empirical Results: Fertilizer quantity, land size, and labor positively influence rice production. Farm profit is significantly affected by production quantity, rice price, total cost, and pesticide cost. Fertilizer cost is not a significant determinant of profit. Implications: Fertilizer quantity, not cost, drives production. Subsidies should be maintained but reoriented toward targeted, quantity-based schemes and improved distribution efficiency to maximize welfare impact. JEL Classification: Q12, Q18, D24, I32
Research Originality: This study is among the first to introduce an Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) framework to quantify the carbon externalities of state-owned assets (BMN) management in Indonesia. This area has received limited empirical attention. Research Objectives: The study aims to systematically measure direct and indirect carbon emissions associated with BMN utilization and assess their implications for public asset governance. Research Methods: An EE-IO model is constructed using Indonesia’s 2016 input-output table, sectoral emission intensities, and audited government electricity expenditure data to estimate emission multipliers and carbon impacts. Empirical Results: The Electricity and Gas Supply sector exhibits the highest emission multiplier (4,919.05 tons CO₂ per billion Rupiah). Electricity-related BMN expenditure is estimated to generate 28.4 million tons of CO₂, revealing a substantial but previously under-recognized source of environmental burden. Implications: The findings support emission-informed budgeting, emission-based performance indicators, and the integration of carbon accountability into public asset management. JEL Classification: Q56, H54, D57, H83
Research Originality: This study provides novel empirical evidence by introducing the Cross-Border Paperless Trade Index as a proxy for ASEAN Single Window implementation to examine how the depth of digital trade facilitation influences Indonesia’s utilization of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement. Research Objectives: This research aims to analyze the impact of ASEAN Single Window implementation on Indonesia’s utilization of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, both at the aggregate level and across sectors. Research Methods: This study uses unpublished Indonesian import panel data from eight ASEAN member countries for the period 2018–2023, and analyzes them using two-way fixed-effects panel data to control for unobserved heterogeneity across product-trading partners and over time. Empirical Results: Higher levels of ASEAN Single Window implementation in partner countries have a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia’s ATIGA utilization, indicating that digital trade facilitation reduces transaction costs and administrative barriers. Implications: These findings suggest that strengthening the effectiveness of digital trade facilitation, particularly through the ASEAN Single Window, is crucial for increasing the practical use of preferential trade agreements and supporting deeper economic integration within ASEAN. JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15
Research Originality: This study provides a new contribution by examining climate stress, inflation, and foreign investment within a single integrated framework. By uniting environmental, macroeconomic, and governance factors, it offers a clearer understanding of the structural drivers of inequality in ASEAN-4. Research Objectives: The study examines the impacts of climate change, inflation, and foreign investment on inequality and evaluates how economic growth and corruption control moderate these effects. Research Methods: The study uses annual panel data for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines from 2002 to 2023 and applies moderated panel regression analysis to estimate both direct and interaction effects. Empirical Results: Climate pressures and foreign investment increase inequality, while inflation slightly reduces it. The analysis also shows that economic growth lessens the inequality effect of foreign investment, whereas stronger corruption control unexpectedly amplifies it, suggesting that better governance does not automatically ensure fairer investment outcomes. Implications: These findings suggest that ASEAN-4 policymakers must align inclusive growth, inflation stability, environmental action, and improved governance to effectively reduce inequality and support sustainable development. JEL Classification: D63, E31, F21, O44, O43
Research Originality: This research introduces a novel empirical estimate of potential customs duty revenue from digitally transmitted imports in Indonesia, addressing a gap in digital trade policy research that has been largely filled by conceptual and legal analyses. Research Objectives: This study aims to operationalize digitally transmitted imports using Harmonized System (HS) codes across five subsectors registered in the Indonesian HS: (1)films/movies, (2)printed matter-books, (3)sound & media, (4)software, and (5)video games. Research Methods: This study constructs a panel dataset covering the period 2018–2023, using data from the Ministry of Finance and Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects panel econometric regression model to control for unobserved heterogeneity across subsectors and over time. Empirical Results: The results indicate a positive relationship between import volume and state revenue from import duties, suggesting that higher import volumes directly contribute to increased fiscal receipts, strengthening the role of import duties. Implications: These findings highlight the growing fiscal relevance of digitally transmitted trade and suggest that the government should accelerate investment in digital infrastructure and strengthen cyber oversight to support sustainable growth in digital trade. JEL Classification: F13, F47, H2
