Sex-sorted semen based artificial insemination (SSS-AI) emerged as a significant breeding intervention for dairy animals to accelerate genetic improvement and enhance herd productivity by substantially increasing the probability of female calf births. In major milk-producing states in India, in spite of the potential benefits of SSS-AI, its adoption remained low due to different constraints, especially its high price premium compared with conventional AI technology. This study estimated dairy farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for SSS-AI under an alternative institutional delivery mechanism involving doorstep service provision and payment through a milk collection centre through a check-off system. Based on a primary survey conducted in two major milk-producing states in India-Uttar Pradesh and Haryana-the study found that the adoption of conventional AI was more than 90%, whereas SSS-AI adoption was low. Dairy farmers’ WTP for SSS-AI was elicited using double-bounded contingent valuation. The estimated median WTP for a single dose of SSS-AI under the proposed institutional mechanism varied between ₹674 and ₹793. Factors such as education of the farmer, herd size and access to formal extension services had a significant positive association with WTP. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh exhibited significantly lower WTP compared to Haryana. The results indicated a significant demand for SSS-AI among dairy farmers, but liquidity constraints, limited awareness and service–delivery gaps limited its adoption. Farmer-friendly institutional innovations, along with strengthened extension and breeding infrastructure, were found to be critical for scaling SSS-AI in India. JEL Classification: Q12, Q16, D12, O13
This study examined India’s agricultural trade dynamics from 2017–2018 to 2024–2025. It integrated descriptive trade analysis, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), the Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI) and first-order Markov chain (MC) transition probability matrices across five commodity groups categorized by the national import–export record for yearly analysis of trade portal. Agricultural exports grew steadily over the study period (6.52%), whereas imports grew at a faster rate (9.60%), narrowing the trade surplus. All commodity groups exhibited diversified export destination structures (HHI below 1,500). Spices recorded the lowest CDVI (4.02) and meat and dairy the highest (10.65) across all groups. MC analysis identified Iran for rice, Malaysia and Vietnam for meat and dairy, China for spices and Nepal and the USA for cereal preparations as the most stable destination markets. In contrast, markets such as Iraq and Benin for rice, Egypt for meat and dairy and the UAE for spices exhibited high volatility, while fruits and vegetables showed weak market persistence overall. On the import side, structural concentration in edible oils highlighted a persistent gap in domestic oilseed production. Strengthening bilateral agreements, cold-chain infrastructure, phytosanitary compliance and import source diversification are recommended to address structural vulnerabilities. JEL Classification: Q17, F14, F17
Women play a central yet under-recognized role in India’s agricultural economy, contributing significantly to farm production while continuing to face deep-rooted inequalities in access to productive resources and household decision-making. This study examined gender differences in asset ownership and participation in decision-making among farm households in Karnataka. Data were collected in 2022–2023 from 480 individual respondents—one woman and her male counterpart from each of 240 farm households—through gender-segregated, multistage random sampling. A multinomial logit model was used to identify the determinants of three levels of decision-making involvement—limited, substantial and high—derived from a composite decision-making score (1–3 scale) across eight key agricultural and household activities. The results revealed pronounced gender disparities: only 32.5% of women owned land compared with 85.8% of men, and women’s mean decision-making score (1.72) was substantially lower than men’s (2.54). Greater access to land, agricultural information and membership in organizations significantly improved women’s likelihood of participating in household and farm decisions, confirming the strong relationship between resource access and empowerment. The study underscored continuing structural asymmetries in intra-household bargaining power, and suggested that policies promoting joint land titling, equitable training programmes and gender-inclusive institutions may contribute to advancing rural gender equality and sustainable agricultural development. JEL Classification: J16, D13, Q12, O15
The present study examines the fluctuation and instability in pear crop production in Kashmir using time-series data from 2001 to 2020. This assessment involves instability indices, which are the coefficient of variation, the Cuddy–Della Valle Index and the Coppock Instability Index, together with a decomposition model according to Hazell’s approach for estimating the impact of area and yields on production variance. The results indicated that variability is statistically significant, with instability being highest in yield, followed by production and area. Instability also differed between the two sub-periods, 2001–2010 and 2010–2020, indicating a structural shift in the production trend. Decomposition analysis revealed that mean yield and area variation are the major contributors to production growth, while yield variance and area variance are the primary sources of instability. This study enriches the extant knowledge base by examining the instabilities in pear cultivation in Kashmir at a disaggregated district and zone level, which is relatively understudied subject in this specific context. This study also makes it explicit that yield variability constitutes one of the prominent risks associated with pear farming in Kashmir. This implies that the best way for stabilization policies is to concentrate on optimizing yields via climate-smart agriculture, proper use of inputs and effective pest control, in addition to proper management of acreage. It is vital for achieving stabilization that district-specific policies are employed to ensure sustainability. JEL Classification: C22, Q12, Q18, Q54
The present study conceptualized the intricate framework of groundwater–energy–food nexus and quantified the effects of groundwater depletion on energy and food security in Uttar Pradesh. The results revealed a potential to leverage the positive linkages between groundwater irrigation and agricultural development in the state, but the areas witnessing groundwater depletion need monitoring and effective measures of groundwater management. In Western Uttar Pradesh, farmers incur 2%–3% increase in energy use and cost annually for maintaining the status quo of irrigation from the depleting groundwater resources. The groundwater depletion, along with perverse electricity pricing and other socio-economic factors, influenced the transition towards electric-operated tubewells, which in turn had a reverse pressure on groundwater and created a feedback loop of groundwater–energy nexus. The meso-level evidence indicated that farmers in the state struggled to chase the depleting groundwater resources, leading to a negative marginal effect on foodgrain production. Sustaining energy and food security warrants both supply and demand side measures for sustainable management of groundwater at the regional level. JEL Classification: Q12, Q15, Q25, Q28
Producer organizations (POs) have significant socio-economic consequences for smallholder members by connecting them to remunerative markets. However, empirical evidence on the impact of PO membership on marketing performance is scarce. This study explored the factors that determine smallholders’ decisions to join POs. It also focuses on how the PO membership influences smallholders’ marketing performance and profits. Cross-sectional data of 305 rice smallholders in India were used for the analysis. An endogenous treatment effects model was used to understand the major drivers behind smallholders’ decision to join the POs and their impact on smallholders. Results showed that age, education, access to credit, distance to the main market, ownership of mobile phones and marketing experience determined the smallholders’ membership in POs. The econometric analysis revealed that POs’ membership positively influenced market participation and profit realization. JEL Classification: Q10, Q13, Q18
Rising temperatures are expected to adversely affect agricultural productivity and reduce the capacity of river waters to assimilate oxygen-demanding wastes, such as biological oxygen demand (BOD), beyond the level where damage occurs due to reduced dissolved oxygen saturation. This study aims to estimate the impact of increasing river water pollution and rising temperature on paddy yields in India using district-level information for 1990–2005. It uses two-way panel fixed effect models. We find that higher levels of BOD and chemical oxygen demand in river water negatively affect paddy yields in regions where observed temperatures are 29°C or higher, and the impact intensifies with increasing temperature. The policy implication of the empirical findings is that controlling river water pollution facilitates climate change adaptation. JEL Classification: Q54, C23, Q16
The Union Budget remains one of the most important policy instruments shaping the trajectory of the Indian agriculture sector. Budget 2026 assumes particular significance as this sector confronts slowing productivity growth, climate risks, rising demand for high-value foods and pressure to raise farmers’ income sustainably. In this note, the agricultural orientation of the Union Budget 2026 was analysed, and its implications for growth, diversification, resilience and rural livelihoods were evaluated. The budget indicated a gradual shift from conventional subsidy-led support towards productivity-enhancing investments in irrigation, digital agriculture, research, value chains and rural infrastructure. At the same time, continued large allocations for fertilizer and income support reflect the political and welfare importance of direct farm transfers. The discussion in the article revealed that Budget 2026 signals an emerging dual strategy: maintaining short-term income protection while promoting long-term structural transformation. However, the effectiveness of this approach will depend on implementation quality, state-level coordination and stronger investment in agricultural research, market systems and climate adaptation. JEL Classification: H2 and H3
The socio-economic traits and constraints that impact the fruit supply in market centres in the Kashmir Valley, India, were evaluated. The logistic regression modelling and Garrett ranking method were used to assess the significance and relative importance of various factors affecting fruit supply. The findings revealed that important socio-economic factors impacting fruit supply in market centres are—market information, landholding size, distance to market, quantity produced, access to credit and extension services. The constraints were—inadequate market infrastructure and information, financial insecurities, management insufficiencies and inadequate cold storage facilities affecting fruit supply chains. These findings provided valuable policy insights by identifying and understanding the socio-economic factors that affect fruit supply, appropriate interventions and policies required. JEL Classification: Q11, Q12, Q13, Q14, Q16
Access to credit has a key role in the growth of Indian agriculture. The majority of Indian farmers belong to the economically weak section and do not have access to institutional credit. The article attempts to identify the factors affecting the access of institutional credit to the farmers of West Bengal. The primary data were collected using a simple random sampling method from 552 farmers across all the districts in West Bengal. The data have been analyzed using a logit model. The results reveal that factors like off-farm income, collateral and age of farmer have a negative impact on the adoption of institutional credit by the farmers, whereas agricultural extension services and landholding have a positive effect. The study recommends that efforts should be made to reduce paperwork and time in loan processing. Also, educating farmers about the advantages of utilizing institutional credit would help increase the adoption of institutional credit among them. JEL Classification: Q14, R51
In 2022, about 58,400 protected geographical indications (GIs) existed globally, with Europe holding a lion’s share (53.1%) and China leading country-wise registrations (9,571). In 2022, India had 605 GI-registered products and 29,624 authorized users. The study has found that handicrafts dominated GI registrations (56.53%), followed by agricultural products (32.56%). Across Indian states, the study has observed that Uttar Pradesh led with 74 products (12.23%), followed by Tamil Nadu with 59 products (9.75%) and Maharashtra with 44 products (8.10%). In agricultural GI registrations, Maharashtra (17.77%), Karnataka (12.18%), Kerala (11.17%) and Tamil Nadu (8.12%) led the list. The study has suggested some policy implications, which include effective GI branding, premium pricing, faster user registration, stronger infringement enforcement, financial support, quality control, skill training, dedicated GI portal and cross-departmental coordination. JEL Classification: K110, M310, O340, Q130
This article examined the contribution of tobacco exports to the Tanzanian economy using time series data from the Bank of Tanzania and World Bank databases, applying a vector autoregressive model for the period from 1997 to 2024. The article provided a balanced description of the economic effects of tobacco exports and their perverse impact on economic growth while controlling for foreign direct investment, inflation and taxes on exports. Findings revealed that even though tobacco exports can accelerate the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the short term, they are faced with the problem of market saturation as well as anti-smoking campaigns in the long term. Early increases in the value of tobacco exports will lower GDP and later will have a positive effect of approximately 2.6% on GDP growth. The findings emphasized the significance of an export-led growth strategy along with macroeconomic policies that are balanced to circumvent risks. JEL Classification: Q22
The growing frequency of geopolitical conflicts has added a new dimension of uncertainty to the global agricultural markets, thereby renewing concerns about the vulnerability of the food system to such shocks. Disruptions triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war, US–China rivalry, USA tariff wars and the recent Middle East tensions demonstrated how quickly geopolitical frictions can disturb agricultural supply chains and intensify volatility in commodity prices worldwide. This note examines the relationship between geopolitical risks and the evolving agricultural market dynamics. For developing economies like India, where agriculture remains central to both rural livelihoods and food price stability, such global shocks carry important macroeconomic implications. JEL Classification: Q13, Q17, F51, E31
Uncertainty related to climate change imposes a new economic environment on households and implies the need to seek alternate sources like livelihood diversification. It was found that to reduce their vulnerability to climate-related risks, they have to diversify their incomes by choosing a portfolio consisting of wild mango kernels and Gnetum africanum on one hand and, on the other, cassava sticks and maize. The results also unveiled that the optimal portfolio remains unchanged, regardless of the value of the risk-aversion coefficient. This study intended to equip rural farmers with the knowledge and principles of combining income-generating activities to boost their livelihoods and effectively fight against poverty. JEL Classification: G110, Q120, A540
The onion price crash witnessed during January–April 2025 once again exposed the structural weaknesses of India’s agricultural economy. The falling prices offered short-term relief to consumers but triggered widespread distress among farmers. Many farmers, under compulsion, sold their produce below the cost of cultivation during the early months of 2025. This crisis was not merely a seasonal fluctuation but a reflection of deep-rooted issues, like volatile markets, inadequate infrastructure, fragmented supply chains and ineffective policy mechanisms. Despite a bumper harvest in 2025, the lack of cold storage and coordinated marketing led to market gluts and collapsing prices. Small and marginal farmers, who dominate onion production, were especially vulnerable due to limited access to storage, credit, insurance or reliable price information. Government responses during this period were largely reactive, prioritizing consumer interests over producer stability. This note argues that sustainable solutions require structural reforms: investment in storage and logistics, predictable trade policies, direct farmer-market linkage and price stabilization tools, such as minimum purchase price (MPP). JEL Classification: Q11, Q12, Q13, Q15, Q18
The livelihoods of smallholding farmers are at risk from changing agro-economic and agro-climatic situations, especially those cultivating high-value cash crops. We evaluated the economic viability of betel leaf cultivation in the Tamluk sub-division of West Bengal using cost–benefit and net present value (NPV) analysis and a multiple regression model. A probabilistic NPV analysis was done using Monte Carlo simulation for a medium-sized betel leaf farm, wherein overhead costs were assessed over 10 years. The cost–benefit ratio for each overhead component was highest for the Mitha variety of betel leaf, followed by the Sanchi and Bangla varieties. The NPV of betel leaf farming was positive for discount rates (5% and 10%), except for small-sized Bangla leaves. Simulation analysis of NPV for investing in a medium-sized betel leaf cultivation, growing it for 10 years, was estimated as ₹122,100.14, with the probabilistic NPV of ₹143,387.82. Since both NPV and probabilistic NPV were positive, and the chances of obtaining the estimated probabilistic NPV that is greater than or equal to the mean probabilistic NPV were almost 50%, such an investment was considered viable for the medium-sized Bangla variety of betel leaves, and all leaf sizes of the Sanchi and Mitha types, except for the small-size Bangla leaf. JEL Classification: Q10, Q11, Q12, Q13
This study investigates the determinants of rural female labour force participation rate (RFLFPR) across 24 major Indian states over the period 2017–2023 using a panel data set and fixed-effects regression models. In the study, the Hausman test ( χ ² = 21.88; p < 0.01) has validated the use of fixed-effects model. The results show that the average daily casual wage rate for females (ADCWF) has a statistically significant positive effect on RFLFPR ( β = 0.0598; p < 0.01), the impact being stronger in the empowered action group (EAG) states as captured by the interaction models (interaction coefficient = 0.0462; p < 0.05). The trend analysis has revealed a significant upward trajectory in RFLFPR across the years ( β = 3.19; p < 0.001), with a steeper rise in the EAG states (additional trend coefficient = 1.38; p < 0.01). A simulation exercise has indicated that a 10% increase in median ADCWF could potentially lead to an average RFLFPR increase of 1.86 percentage points in the EAG states and 0.70 percentage points in the non-EAG states. The findings underscore that wage-enhancement policies, especially in the backward regions, would substantially boost women’s participation in the rural labour markets. The policy initiatives aimed at raising rural female wages, reducing female unemployment and addressing state-level structural disparities would meaningfully improve gender equity in India’s labour force. JEL Classification: C33, J16, J31
In this study, we looked into the role of the fishing and aquaculture sectors in advancing the process of diversification in India’s agri-allied sectors over the past decade (2014–2023). By analyzing the data on output value across key sub-sectors of agriculture, the study observed a divergent growth dynamic of output-driven expansion in the inland sector and value-led growth in the marine sector, driven by increasing demand and rising prices. For fishers, the benefits of real price growth remain under-capitalized: although it increases revenue potential, much of the gain is captured by intermediaries with stronger market access, capital, and infrastructure, leaving producers more vulnerable to volatility. Addressing these challenges requires policies that strengthen direct market linkages, integrate market dynamics into fisheries policy and planning, and enhance infrastructure, ensuring that sectoral value growth translates into real welfare gains for fishers. JEL Classification: Q18, Q21, Q22
Agricultural prices and markets are among the most contentious issues, and the recent farmers’ agitation over the past years has intensified this concern. Naturally, it becomes necessary to review the entire process of the emergence of price policy in India as well as the historical context in which it emerged. Traditionally, agricultural markets have been imperfect, and this issue attracted policies during the first two decades of independence. Many changes occurred during those decades, and the price policy evolved over the years, with minimum support price and the procurement of food grains dominating the scenario. The economic and political context of those changes needs to be viewed clearly. The Long-Term Grain Policy Committee took an overall view and commented on the price policy situation in the country; however, the recommendations lacked an implementation platform. Recent contentious issues have emerged from the three Farm Acts, which have provoked agitations. The controversies encompassed numerous problems, including a shift in marketing policy from earlier Agricultural Produce Market Committee-controlled agricultural markets, which moved towards allowing private players in the market and contract farming. Apart from political issues, several combative economic issues surround this debate. This article analyses the emergence and development of agricultural prices in India. It provides a synoptic view of all the significant milestones and then discusses the contentious issue of the farm laws and their implementation. The approach here is placed more in a political economy framework than in attempting any empirical or technical analysis. JEL Classification: Q18, D40, Q11, Q13, H11
Using monthly wholesale price data from January 2004 to September 2024 with climatic parameters, we built the autoregressive integrated moving average model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to examine the impact of climatic parameters, specifically temperature and rainfall, on enhancing the accuracy of tomato price forecasting in Punjab. We find that minimum temperature and lagged rainfall significantly influence tomato prices and reflect their impact on production and supply dynamics. The SARIMAX [1,1,2],[0,0,3][12] model demonstrated the lowest root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error among all the models we tested, signifying superior performance. The study highlights the importance of integrating weather-based forecasting into agricultural planning to improve market efficiency and enhance farmer resilience. JEL Classification: C53, Q02, Q11, Q12
