DON is a toxic byproduct of fusarium head blight (FHB), a fungal disease of small grains. Beginning in 1993, a prolonged outbreak of FHB occurred in the Upper Midwest, the traditional source of most six-rowed malting barley produced in the United States. Price discounts associated with DON in barley have been significant. This paper has two objectives. The first is to estimate the impact of DON on the value of malting barley grown in the Upper Midwest. Using crop quality data, we use a linear programming model to derive optimal blends of barley supplies, given discount schedules and the distribution of quality factors. The premise is that blending activities, on a regional scale, allow a larger fraction of the crop to be sold as malting. The second objective is to assess the risks associated with DON in the context of a firm-level blending model. We frame a nonlinear optimization problem in which an elevator seeks to maximize the expected sales value of the barley in its bins. Price discounts for several quality factors are incorporated in the analysis, along with probability distributions for DON. Treating DON as a random quality factor adds some interesting complexity to the standard grain blending problem. Attachments : aem187a.xls aem187b.xls aem187c.xls aem187d.xls
Leafy spurge is an invasive noxious weed, which by definition means it is inordinately difficult to control. The objective of this report is to present the results of focus group meetings and personal interviews with ranchers, local decision makers, and public land managers to discover strategies to improve leafy spurge management. Participants in the interviews and focus group meetings managed property in Fallon, Carter, and Wibaux Counties of Montana; Golden Valley, Bowman, Billings, and Slope Counties of North Dakota; Harding County of South Dakota; and Crook County of Wyoming. Ranchers and local decision makers believe that leafy spurge control must become more proactive rather than reactive; current strategies are largely reactive. Interviews with ranchers and local decision makers revealed that a considerable gap in understanding how to control leafy spurge exists between researchers and those attempting to combat the weed. Interviewers often mentioned that they have been unable to eradicate leafy spurge, which indicates that the current mind set of ranchers and land managers needs to change to one focusing more on controlling and managing leafy spurge rather than eradication. Specific recommendations would include 1) reducing the current levels of herbicide application rates - which are often two to three times higher than rates recommended by weed scientists, 2) must appreciate that herbicides are but one tool in the battle against leafy spurge, 3) must understand that in many cases eradication of leafy spurge will not be possible - the goal should be trying to control it, and 4) rangeland rental rates need to reflect current levels of weed infestations. Records of weed infestations (e.g., acreage, location, rate of spread, attempts at control) on public lands are woefully inadequate. Cooperation between ranchers, county weed boards, and public land agencies could be improved to enhance the effectiveness of existing control programs. Weed control regardless of land ownership is important for ranchers, absentee landowners, and public agencies to effectively control leafy spurge. In general, ranchers and land managers need to generate a broader base of support for control of leafy spurge, since the weed attacks the entire ecosystem and is not just an agricultural problem.
The lignite energy industry of North Dakota has become a significant force in the state's economy since the energy crisis of the 1970s. Key economic measures of the industry's contribution to the state's economy have been estimated annually since 1982. Industry expenditures peaked in 1995 at $543.8 million, excluding the early 1980s when significant plant expansion was occurring. Annual expenditures have been over $400 million since the early 1990s and were $464.9 million in 1998, the most recent year of the analysis. Lignite energy related expenditures were applied to the input- output multipliers to estimate levels of business activity. Personal income resulting from the industry was estimated at $490.5 million in 1998, with retail sales at $320.6 million for the same period. Total business activity resulting from the lignite industry amounted to over $1.4 billion in 1998. The industry has generated over $1 billion in total business activity annually from 1982-1998, except for 1987. Tax revenues resulting from the industry's activities totaled $63.4 million in 1998, and were over $50 million in all but two years from 1982-1998. The largest tax revenue source was the coal severance tax which grew from $17.5 million in 1982 to $27.7 million in 1992, and was $23.6 million in 1998. Industry-wide direct employment has declined from 6,458 to 3,078 workers between 1982 and 1998. Secondary (indirect and induced) employment has also declined during the study period, declining from 31,981 to 17,175 full time equivalent jobs. The lignite energy industry has contributed significantly to the North Dakota economy as its expenditures have resulted in higher levels of personal income, retail sales, business activity, tax revenues, and employment within the state.
A cost-benefit and statistical analysis of fungicides for suppression of fusarium head blight (scab) in hard red spring wheat was completed on data from physical experiments done in Fargo and Carrington, North Dakota in 1997. Various fungicide data were analyzed by applying revenues and costs to the experiment yields to determine net revenue. The net revenues were analyzed statistically using a one-way ANOVA (analysis of variance). No statistical difference was found between the control and other treatment with the Fargo data. There was a statistical difference between the control and other treatments with the Carrington data. The data sets were combined and analyzed; location proved to be a significant factor.
The United States has imported large amounts of wheat and barley from Canada in recent years. Producers in northern-tier states and their political representatives have been strenuously objected, citing market disruption and unfair trading practices by the Canadian Wheat Board. This paper provides a summary and critique of U.S. perspectives on `the Canadian grain problem.'
Advances in production, communication and transportation technologies as well as expectations of consumers, taxpayers, business people and rural residents continue to cause changes in agriculture and rural areas. These changes pose challenges, such as increased competition, as well as offer opportunities to produce specialized products and reach new markets. The opportunities for production agriculture appear to be 1) low-cost, large-scale commodity production, 2) medium- or small-scale commodity production combined with non-farm sources of income, or 3) production and marketing of specialized products. Emerging opportunities for rural businesses appear to be in serving production agriculture and agribusinesses by meeting their unique needs. These firms also can use advancing communication technologies to reach distant markets. Many business managers are adopting strategies that will shift their firm away from perfect competition. Opportunities for rural communities lie in using technology to efficiently provide services to rural residents. The size and composition of rural communities also will be redefined by advances in communication and transportation technologies. The decision of how to pursue these opportunities require a thorough understanding of what is occurring and thoughtful deliberations.
This report evaluates tourism potential in North Dakota with special emphasis on southwest North Dakota. A survey of 808 Fargo residents in the summer of 1998 revealed strongest likes, dislikes, and their potential new interests while on vacation. Favorite pastimes while on vacation include (in rank order): viewing natural scenery, boating and other water sports, reading and relaxing, taking an ocean cruise, camping, spending time at unique shops, family activities, seeing historic sites, and viewing a sports event. Activities respondents had not done while on vacation but would like to try include (in rank order): cruising the ocean, ballooning, ranch/cowboy experience, parachuting, cross country skiing, canoeing, horseback riding, paleontology, hiking, and mountain biking. Other characteristics of the respondents are listed along with their advice to North Dakotans interested in increasing tourism. Numerous other studies relating to tourism are analyzed, including the likes and dislikes of the international visitor. Tourism is the fastest growing industry in America, but currently North Dakota is the least traveled state in the nation. This report encourages communities and businesses in southwest ND to work together in attracting more visitors. Activities, structural enhancements, communication through technology, workforce training, collaboration amongst communities, and co-op advertising, are all discussed.
An economic evaluation of wet corn gluten feed used in beef feedlot finishing was done. Data were from feeding trials at North Dakota State University. Four rations were analyzed at 0 percent, 28 percent, 56 percent, and 85 percent wet corn gluten based on dry matter intake. Data were entered into a computer model that integrated the feeding trial data with economic input and output prices. A typical feedlot example was used. Results indicated that the 56 percent ration was the most biologically efficient. A matrix of results can be shown for various corn prices, relative to wet corn gluten feed prices and quantities fed. Based on this study, wet corn gluten feed is priced competitively with other feed stuffs.
The principal goal of shared-services cooperatives is to capture savings through lower administrative costs, quantity purchasing discounts, sharing fixed costs, and assured levels of business with vendors and suppliers. Although the idea of cooperation is not new in North Dakota, the question raised here is whether there is potential applications for non-agricultural shared-services cooperatives that provide services that are absent or inadequate in rural communities in the state. It is concluded that there is potential application for shared-services cooperatives in both public and private sectors in North Dakota based on opportunities to share fixed costs and to capitalize on pecuniary economies of size.
The Carrington-to-Turtle Lake rail line serves five agricultural shippers in a four county area in central North Dakota. Service on the line has been affected by recent embargoes, floods, and poor, deteriorating track conditions. The line is a strong candidate for abandonment as efforts to rehabilitate the line have lacked financial support. Prior to this study, a benefit/cost study, which compares benefits and costs of a rail line reconstruction, was performed for the rail line in an attempt to secure financial assistance for rehabilitation. Railroad abandonment impacts rural communities and local economies in a variety of ways. Businesses that use rail for transportation usually experience a change in their shipping options. Instead of sending and/or receiving materials and supplies by rail, those items must be moved by truck. The severity of the change is often a function of the amount of material shipped and distance hauled. Rail abandonment affects property values. In the absence of tax rate changes, reduced property values translate directly into lower property tax revenues for local governments. Rural areas, especially in North Dakota, often do not have adequate road and highway infrastructure to absorb movements of grain and agricultural inputs exclusively by truck. The transference of rail movements to truck traffic accelerates the deterioration of local roads and highways. Abandonment of the Carrington-to-Turtle Lake rail line was estimated to increase transportation costs for shippers on the line by $329,000 annually. A majority of the increase in transportation costs would be incurred by farmers in the form of reduced commodity prices. The North Dakota Input-Output Model estimated that the $329,000 in direct impacts would generate an additional $682,000 in secondary impacts. Total economic losses for the regional economy were estimated to be $1 million annually. Additional impacts included an annual loss of $17,900 in state-collected tax revenue. Annual net costs (i.e., damages less additional user revenues) to repair and maintain state roads impacted from increased truck traffic were estimated at $297,000 for resurfacing and $868,000 for reconstruction.
Interviews and mail-out/mail-back surveys were conducted in 1992 with 38 conventional and 41 sustainable North Dakota farmers. The results emphasize the differences and similarities of these two types of farmers. Sustainable farms had more diverse cropping practices and were more likely to raise alternative crops like alfalfa, buckwheat, hay, millet, oats, and rye than conventional farmers. Conventional farmers were more likely to raise traditional crops like barley, sugar beets, sunflowers, and spring wheat. Conventional farmers averaged substantially higher crop yields than sustainable farmers. Three-fourths of the sustainable farmers raised livestock compared with one-half of the conventional farmers. Conventional farmers had greater equity, assets, gross farm income, and net farm income than sustainable farmers. Conventional and sustainable farmers reported nearly the same amount of satisfaction with farming as an occupation, the same stress levels, and the same perceived skill requirements.
North Dakota's recreational fishing industry is an important part of the state's economic base. Resident and nonresident anglers spent nearly $260 million dollars on fishing-related activities in the state in 1990 (Baltezore and Leitch 1992). Management of a resource that generates this amount of economic activity requires accurate and periodic information. Management uses information in at least two ways. Information is initially used to make a decision. Once a decision is made, additional information is collected to assess the results or outcomes of that decision. In effect, information is used to make a decision and monitor changes resulting from that decision (Kerestes and Leitch 1983). Periodic information is needed to monitor the outcomes of management's decision.
The North Dakota wild fur industry exists as a small, but important economic and recreational activity. This paper describes the role of furbearers and estimates the impact of recreational furbearer hunting and trapping on economy. Furbearers are animals whose pelts human's use for clothing. Furs are almost exclusively used for garments and trim on clothing. Furbearers are harvested for sport and for profit and to prevent damage to domestic livestock, fowl, and crops. North Dakota furbearer hunters and trappers harvest about $500,000 worth of raw furs per year. Wild fur harvesters spend $30 million each year hunting and trapping in the state. Most of these are recreational hunters and trappers, who, in the aggregate, get about $12 million in nonmonetary enjoyment over and above their expenditures from their participation. These expenditures generate another $69 million in economic activity, producing gross business receipts of $99 million. This level of gross business volume supports 1,466 jobs throughout various economic sectors that provide inputs to support furbearer hunting and trapping activities. Over half of these economic impacts occur in rural areas of North Dakota.
The basic sectors are central to the growth and vitality of any economic system, and current and accurate information regarding changes in an area's economic base is vital to local economic development planning efforts. This report provides estimates of the economic base by economic sector for North Dakota counties for the period 1960-1991. The data indicate that agriculture remains North Dakota's most important basic sector, accounting for 50 percent or more of the economic base in 31 of the state's 53 counties in 1991. The energy sectors play a significant role in the economic base of a number of western North Dakota counties. Energy extraction and conversion accounted for 50 percent or more of the economic base in seven counties in 1991. Manufacturing has been a growing segment of the state's economy in recent years. In 1991, manufacturing accounted for 15 percent or more of the economic base in seven counties. Federal activities have been a major source of growth among the state's basic sector activities in recent years, and transfer payments account for most of the growth in this economic base component over the past decade. In 1991, federal activities accounted for 50 percent or more of the economic base of five counties. Tourism also has been a growing segment of the state's economy, but it has not yet assumed a dominant role in any county.
Exports to Taiwan in 1990 via air freight were approximately $2.9 billion, and imports via air freight to the united States were $3.1 billion. Total U.S. exports/imports to/from Taiwan in 1990 were $11.5 billion and $22.7 billion, respectively. China Airlines operates three air cargo hubs in the united States: New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas. The real per capita Gross National Product (GNP) in Taiwan for 1989 was $7,512, up from $3,297 in 1985. This implies that the Taiwanese economy is one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. Trade volume between the united States and Taiwan has increased substantially over the last 10 years and is predicted to grow in the future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic feasibility of Fargo, North Dakota, as an air cargo handling facility for products shipped to (from) Taiwan. Two static transshipment models were used to determine the economic feasibility of an air cargo hub being located at Fargo. Both transshipment models minimized trucking costs of cargo from (to) customs districts to (from) air cargo hubs and air cargo costs from (to) hubs to (from) Taiwan for exports and imports. Total savings and market shares for both export and import models are presented by evaluating the feasibility of an air cargo hub at Fargo. The model, excluding Fargo as a cargo hub, results in $47 million in exports and $1.7 million in imports. Including Fargo as a cargo hub at the New York rate saves $2.73 million; at the Dallas rate, $2.84 million; and at the Los Angeles rate, $3.08 million. Fargo's market share is 11.8% for exports and 14.8% for imports. Fargo gains its entire market share for both exports and imports from New York for all models. In conclusion, this study indicates Fargo has a logistical advantage over New York and Dallas in shipping and receiving air cargo between Taiwan and Northern Plains states (Minnesota, Illinois, and Montana). This does not necessarily mean it would be economically feasible to place an air cargo hub at Fargo. In addition to logistics, economic feasibility depends on investment and operating costs, and a volume large enough to minimize per unit operating costs through economies of scale. v
Buyers of grain use premiums and discounts to convey to suppliers the value of quality characteristics. Premiums and discounts are determined by supply and demand for those quality characteristics. This report, the eighth in a series, contains the results of a 1991 survey of pricing and marketing practices used by North Dakota country elevators for durum and hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Results for HRS wheat show that the protein level increased to the highs of 1988 and 1989 and that the premium for 16 percent protein and the discount for 12 percent protein decreased from the previous year. Discounts continued the downward trend of recent years.
The past decade has been a period of turmoil for the manufacturing sector in both the U. S. and Canada, and rural manufacturing firms in both countries have been subjected to substantial competitive pressures. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of the firms that comprise the manufacturing sector in North Dakota and in the Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Data came from a survey of firms conducted in 1991. A total of 333 firms (214 from North Dakota, 61 from Manitoba, and 58 from Saskatchewan) returned useable surveys. Durable goods manufacturers dominated the sample, accounting for 65 percent in Manitoba, 66 percent in North Dakota, and 78 percent in Saskatchewan. Many of the participating firms were relatively new; about 59 percent of the Saskatchewan companies and 44 percent of the North Dakotas firms, but only 25 percent of the Manitoba manufacturers, had been established since 1979. Many of the firms also were quite small; about 57 percent of the North Dakota companies and 44 percent of those in Canada reported that their 1990 gross sales were less than $1 million. The Canadian firms were more oriented to international marketing and sales than their North Dakota counterparts. Another substantial contrast between the North Dakota manufacturers and their Canadian counterparts was the extent of their plant's production capacity that was currently being utilized. North Dakota firms reported an average of 76 percent utilization, followed by Manitoba (67 percent) and Saskatchewan (57 percent) companies. Overall, the firms that comprise the manufacturing sector in Manitoba and Saskatchewan are quite similar to their North Dakota counterparts. Many are relatively new, and most are relatively small. The Canadian firms have experienced less favorable recent trends in sales and employment growth. However, with substantial experience and widespread interest in international trade combined with substantial excess capacity, the Canadian firms may be well positioned to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the U.S. -Canada Free Trade Agreement.
Sunflower research in North Dakota focuses on variety testing. Additional research has been conducted on cost-effective cultural practices, possible use to produce a red dye food colorant, and the estimated economic impact of banning an insecticide. Variety testing has been conducted at most state experiment sites in North Dakota, including, Casselton Agronomy Seed Farm, Carrington Research Extension Center, Langdon, Minot, Williston, Dickinson, and Hettinger Experiment Stations. A comparison of the impact of conventional tillage and no tillage on sunflower in North Dakota has been conducted at Dickinson Experiment Station and USDA-ARS Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory, Mandan. A large number of diseases and pests may infect sunflower. The North Dakota State University Entomology Department and the state experiment stations have ongoing research directed at meeting the problems producers face. The Department of Agricultural Economics and the Department of Food and Nutrition at North Dakota State University have investigated the feasibility of extracting a red food colorant from the hulls of purple-hulled sunflower. The Department of Agricultural Economics has estimated the impacts of banning methyl parathion application on sunflower.
Income from livestock marketing has declined as a proportion of total gross farm income in the past two decades. • Income from cattle and calves accounts for about 65-75 percent of total livestock income in the state. • Income from milk has ranged from 14-20 percent of total livestock income in the state. • Income from swine, a promising growth enterprise for the state, has generated only 5-8 percent of total livestock income. • Livestock income is very important to counties in western North Dakota, relatively unimportant in the eastern counties. • Enterprise budgets for beef and swine indicate positive returns to operator and unpaid labor, management, and equity capital for 1992. • Less than 30 percent of North Dakota's feed grain output is used within the state to support livestock production. • Large quantities of unused roughage and crop residue, currently unused, could support additional livestock production. • Livestock production can be a complementary enterprise with crop production adding to farmer income levels and stability of income. • Constraints to increased livestock production in the state can be resolved largely through a program of focused research and education.
