Climate scenarios are indispensable for exploring future development pathways and informing robust mitigation strategies. However, the rapid expansion of climate change research and increasingly complex integrated assessment methods have created a vast and fragmented landscape of scenario information, much of which remains locked in unstructured textual descriptions. This study introduces the Global Climate Scenario Narratives (GCSN), a comprehensive repository developed through a hybrid machine learning and large language model (LLM) framework. By systematically mining approximately 90,000 peer-reviewed articles, the GCSN identifies and structures over 50,000 distinct scenario narratives across diverse temporal and spatial scales. Unlike traditional numerical datasets, GCSN focuses on the qualitative logic and policy settings that underpin climate projection. With its multi-dimensional classification and transparent architecture, GCSN serves as a foundational reference resource that facilitates cross-study scenario comparison, enhances policy-relevant synthesis, and provides a structured knowledge base for the next generation of climate change research.
India is the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and a developing nation whose per-capita GDP is about one-fifth of the global average. To implement the Paris Agreement, India must reconcile its economic ambitions—defined by the Viksit Bharat vision of reaching high-income status—with climate action. Moving beyond standard “middle-of-the-road” (SSP2) growth assumptions, this study presents a novel mitigation scenario using the REMIND integrated assessment model calibrated to a high-growth trajectory (6.2% annual GDP growth over 2025-2050). We compare a Current Policy baseline with a Net-zero scenario (NZ2070) aligned with India’s 2070 net-zero target. In the NZ2070 pathway, emissions peak around 2035 at 4.2 Gt CO2/yr (12.5% above 2025 levels) before declining. Decarbonization hinges on a massive expansion of renewable electricity (generation 8.3 PWh or 84% of total electricity by 2050), a managed phase-down of unabated coal power (peaking at 293 GW in 2030), and extensive electrification. Green hydrogen and biomass emerge as critical solutions for hard-to-abate sectors post-2045. While near-term abatement costs are modest, achieving net-zero requires an implicit carbon price of $429/tCO2 by 2070. Our results demonstrate that India can approach high-income levels while meeting its climate goals, provided near-term investments, amounting to an additional 1.4% of GDP annually (∼$175 billion/yr through 2050) in energy supply sectors, are consistently aligned with long-term targets. This pathway offers a technically rigorous, net-zero-consistent benchmark for assessing India’s recently submitted 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution, and indicates scope to strengthen its near-term ambition.
Transitioning from fossil fuel-based to renewable energy (RE) generation is critical for meeting climate goals but entails major social and economic challenges across the coal–thermal value chain, including job losses, asset stranding, and revenue disruptions. Existing research largely focuses on technical, financial, or environmental aspects, with little attention to these social and economic costs, and no established way to integrate them into formal energy system models. This study proposes a novel and mathematically tractable framework that classifies social and economic impacts as ‘capital stranding’ per MW of prematurely retired coal capacity and ‘operational stranding’ per kWh of avoided thermal generation. Such classification is designed to enable future inclusion of these costs directly into energy planning models (typically large-scale optimisation models), filling a key gap in current approaches. We apply the framework to Karnataka’s electricity system for 2020, a particularly relevant case as the state has aggressively integrated RE into its grid. While our findings are Karnataka-specific, the framework is adaptable and can be extended to other regions with appropriate datasets, which forms the basis of our ongoing research. By embedding socio-economic concerns into technical planning, this work provides policymakers with tools to design just and inclusive transition strategies that minimize disruptions while advancing sustainability.
As decarbonization pressures intensify, the role of coal incumbents in energy transitions, particularly in the Global South remains underexplored. This paper examines how India’s state-owned coal enterprises, focusing on Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL), are responding to the energy transition. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework, we analyse SCCL’s evolving strategy across six domains: technological capability, financial efficiency, institutional and policy capacity, socio-economic embeddedness, environmental stewardship, and industrial relations. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and interviews with SCCL’s management, workers, policymakers, and local communities, we show that SCCL is not merely resisting transition pressures but is actively reshaping its corporate strategy in response to emerging climate and energy governance. Its financial strength, bureaucratic embeddedness, social legitimacy, and diversification into non-coal sectors position it as a potentially influential actor in India’s low-carbon transition. This case challenges the notion that coal incumbents are monolithic or change-averse, demonstrating how state-owned enterprises can pursue alternative transition pathways. By foregrounding labour, governance, and regional development concerns, our findings contribute to the literature on sustainability transitions and offer new insights into the political economy of decarbonization in coal dependent economies.
