This article prospectively analyzes the financial viability of integrating coffee cultivation into Brazil’s regulated carbon market. The analysis, based on the potential reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the profitability of carbon credit trading, employed microeconomic analysis to estimate the minimum viable scale of the plantation. Using the projected minimum area, the study inferred the potential participation of Brazilian coffee cultivation from census data. The results indicated low effectiveness of the cap-and-trade policy for the sector, as fewer than 12% of coffee farms reach the minimum viable area to trade credits. The study concludes that mechanisms to reduce certification costs are necessary to enhance policy effectiveness, promote environmental conservation, and foster social inclusion.
This article examines the relationship between institutional and democratic indicators and fiscal behavior in Latin American countries. The study reveals that democratic conditions affect not only expenditure patterns but also public debt levels. Furthermore, debt levels are influenced by other political-institutional framework characteristics. The results suggest that democratic advancement in Latin America has the potential to curb the scale of State intervention in the region’s economies and to provide the stability needed to reduce public debt and improve fiscal performance.
This study investigates whether real minimum wage adjustments between 2012 and 2015 affected unemployment, informality, and labor force inactivity rates in Brazil. To that end, panel data models were estimated using microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNADC - Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua). Contrary to expectations, the results show that real increases in the minimum wage were associated with a reduction in the informality rate. Regarding unemployment, the findings suggest that higher real minimum wages tended to raise unemployment rates for both men and women. Additionally, minimum wage increases contributed to a decline in female labor force participation.
Esse artigo objetiva expor e analisar os quatro anos presidenciais de Jair Bolsonaro sob o ponto de vista da agenda econômica, das relações internacionais, além de uma análise e interpretação política do período. A descrição econômica indica as conquistas do governo e seus fracassos. A análise das relações externas aponta um afastamento da América Latina, hostilidades à China, um alinhamento automático aos Estados Unidos, conflitos diversos em razão da pandemia e do antiambientalismo. Do ponto de vista político, são elencados os grupos que deram sustentação ao governo, as características destes segmentos e os conflitos diversos que marcaram o interregno.
This study analyzes the causal conditions behind crime determinants, focusing on the relationship between education, sports, and crime. It draws on data from the Índice Mineiro de Responsabilidade Social (IMRS – Minas Gerais Social Responsibility Index) for municipalities in Minas Gerais in 2016. The method used is Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), which allows identifying the relationships between conditions and observed outcomes. The results indicate that sports and education are inversely associated with crime (except for violent crimes against persons) and jointly constitute at least one causal path to low crime rates, excluding crimes against persons.
ECLAC thinking has evolved through several stages influenced both by geopolitical dynamics and by developments in economic theory. Throughout much of its history, it has relied—directly or indirectly—on a theoretical foundation aligned with Say’s Law. Coincidentally or not, a shift in this framework took place after the 2008 crisis. Say’s Law and Ricardian thought lost prominence, making way to theories of Effective Demand. This article aims to trace the trajectory of ECLAC thinking, highlighting the replacement of Say’s Law by Effective Demand theories.
This article examines the impact of the launch of the instant payment system Pix by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) on the number of bank branches in Brazilian municipalities. Using novel monthly data that capture Pix transactions at the municipal level and applying a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the study finds a negative and statistically significant effect of PIX adoption on the number of local bank branches. The paper contributes to the literature by assessing the economic impact of an instant payment system using an impact evaluation methodology and by focusing on quarterly, municipality-level data on Brazil’s Pix system.
This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of real bilateral exchange rate volatility on Brazil’s export and import flows. The analysis focuses on Brazil’s trade with the United States and China, disaggregated by two-digit industry classifications (99 sectors), covering the period from 2000 to 2017. The main findings reveal asymmetries in both exports and imports: 12.12% and 9.09%, respectively, in Brazil–US trade; and 10.10% and 8.08%, respectively, in Brazil–China trade.
This article investigates the relationship between investment expenditure and the degree of budgetary dependency among Brazilian states over the period 2001–2018. The central hypothesis is that the level of budgetary dependency generates heterogeneous effects on investment expenditure. A panel threshold model is employed to test this hypothesis. The results indicate nonlinear dynamics in the relationship between investment expenditure and budgetary dependency: at high levels of net funded debt, an increase in budgetary dependence—or a reduction in budgetary autonomy—is associated with a decline in investment expenditure.
This paper analyzes the deindustrialization hypothesis for the municipalities of the Divinópolis Microregion in Minas Gerais using value added and employment data from 2011 to 2020 to estimate the Deindustrialization Relative Regional Index (DRR). The analysis of industry’s share in gross value added and employment reveals a process of absolute deindustrialization in the Divinópolis Microregion and in certain municipalities. However, the DRR results do not indicate evidence of deindustrialization for the Microregion relative to Minas Gerais and Brazil during the analyzed period, although the evidence supports the existence of this process in the most economically relevant municipalities of the Microregion.
The mining sector has historically played a central role in the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. However, it continues to face major socio-environmental challenges and recurrent disasters. Decarbonization has emerged as a strategy to address these issues, and this article examines its implications. The study discusses the socio-environmental risks of mining and the strategies to enhance its sustainability. Decarbonization may offer an opportunity for productive densification in the state, but it will require coordination among different stakeholders and careful attention to disaster prevention. This process can be strengthened by coupling Decarbonization with the adoption of digital technologies—a process the literature refers to as twin transitions.
This article proposes an analytical presentation of the systemic theoretical framework developed by Douglass North. Drawing on his seminal works from 1981, 1990, and 2005, we show how North incorporates heterodox theoretical and analytical categories into the orthodox foundations of economics in order to better explain the phenomena surrounding development. Beyond the categories present in the mainstream approach, he integrates into his explanatory framework more consistent variables such as allocative efficiency, procedural rationality, uncertainty, learning, path dependence, and belief, among others. Finally, North emphasizes the role of institutions as promoters of freedom—and, in turn, of economic change.
This study investigates the extent to which non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed by China and the United States have affected Brazil’s meat complex exports between 2011 and 2022. Using coverage ratio and frequency index, the analysis quantifies the proportion of Brazilian meat exports subject to NTMs and compares the relative incidence across these two major trading partners. The results indicate a high concentration of trade barriers in this segment, with a larger number of notifications originating from China.
Financial markets perform a fundamental role in the economic organization of countries, motivating investors to seek improvements in technical analysis tools to optimize gains. This study applies several Machine Learning techniques to predict the trend (up, down and lateral) of the IBOVESPA index on a weekly interval between technical indicators (explanatory variables). Statistical parameters such as precision, accuracy, ROC curve and AUC were evaluated, highlighting the performance of the KNN, Random Forest and Logistic Regression models. It is concluded that Machine Learning techniques are effective in the investment sector, offering impressive results for the market and future research.
The Export Financing Program (PROEX) is a federal government instrument designed to support Brazilin export of goods and services through two modalities: National Treasury Financing and Interest Rate Support. This study evaluates the impact of PROEX on Brazilian exports between 2010 and 2021, adopting a novel approach that examines different sectors of the Brazilian export industry. The net effect of PROEX on each sector’s overall export capacity was analyzed, accounting for changes in firms’ market power within each sector. To address unobservable endogenous factors affecting PROEX's performance, an exogenous term was developed to reflect the economic attractiveness of Brazil's 20 main export markets. The econometric analysis indicates that a 10% increase in exports PROEX-supported exports, combined with a proportional demand shock in the destination countries, leads to an average increase of 21.3% in Brazilian sectoral exports.
This paper applies the subsystem approach to analyze the Machinery and Equipment (M&E) sector between 2000 and 2014, focusing on the use of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) as production inputs. The objective is twofold: to assess whether countries with higher market shares have intensified their integration of KIBS, and to understand recent transformations in the Brazilian M&E subsystem. The findings reveal that the M&E sector remains highly vertically integrated and only marginally linked to KIBS, with notable exceptions in the United States and Germany—where the incorporation of programming services has increased. In contrast, Brazil and China display persistently low levels of KIBS integration, raising concerns about technological upgrading and innovation capacity.
Between 1970-1973, against the backdrop of a brief period of détente in the Cold War, the government of Salvador Allende figured as a model case for the multilateral potential of international financial institutions—especially the IMF—and for the contradictions implied in the relationship between these institutions and the governments of developing countries. The Unidad Popular administration played a “two-tier game” in its position vis-à-vis the International Financial System and its institutions, aided in part by the geopolitical scenario and in part by Allende’s efforts to pursue a financial diplomacy that was both technical and committed to national interests.
Drawing on data on production structure and foreign trade, this article examines the continuity and intensification of the process of relative international deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy throughout the 2010s. The evidence points to a continued erosion of Brazil’s position in global manufacturing.
From the mid-1990s onward, microeconomic deregulation and liberalization policies that increased competition drove substantial growth in Brazil’s air transport market. Over this period, air transport services have increasingly reached beyond high-income households and capital-intensive industries, extending to lower-income groups and a wider range of productive sectors. This paper examines how air transport markets interact with Brazil’s productive structure. Both the open and the closed Input–Output models were employed, applying two complementary analytical techniques — Requirement Coefficients and the Field of Influence. Results indicate that public administration and services tend to exert greater effective pressures and influences on the demand for air passenger transport.
This article revisits the Plano de Metas (Goals Plan), examining the relationship established between Brazilian economic planning and foreign capital during the period 1956–1961. The analysis begins with the origins of economic planning in Brazil and proceeds to show how the achievement of the plan’s priority targets was closely linked to the process of capital internationalization. The results reveal that the “progress” experienced by Brazilian industry during that period stemmed largely from the action of foreign capital, which, once it penetrated the national economic sphere, was able to subordinate the implementation of the plan to its own interests.
