The mining sector has historically played a central role in the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. However, it continues to face major socio-environmental challenges and recurrent disasters. Decarbonization has emerged as a strategy to address these issues, and this article examines its implications. The study discusses the socio-environmental risks of mining and the strategies to enhance its sustainability. Decarbonization may offer an opportunity for productive densification in the state, but it will require coordination among different stakeholders and careful attention to disaster prevention. This process can be strengthened by coupling Decarbonization with the adoption of digital technologies—a process the literature refers to as twin transitions.
This article proposes an analytical presentation of the systemic theoretical framework developed by Douglass North. Drawing on his seminal works from 1981, 1990, and 2005, we show how North incorporates heterodox theoretical and analytical categories into the orthodox foundations of economics in order to better explain the phenomena surrounding development. Beyond the categories present in the mainstream approach, he integrates into his explanatory framework more consistent variables such as allocative efficiency, procedural rationality, uncertainty, learning, path dependence, and belief, among others. Finally, North emphasizes the role of institutions as promoters of freedom—and, in turn, of economic change.
This study investigates the extent to which non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed by China and the United States have affected Brazil’s meat complex exports between 2011 and 2022. Using coverage ratio and frequency index, the analysis quantifies the proportion of Brazilian meat exports subject to NTMs and compares the relative incidence across these two major trading partners. The results indicate a high concentration of trade barriers in this segment, with a larger number of notifications originating from China.
Financial markets perform a fundamental role in the economic organization of countries, motivating investors to seek improvements in technical analysis tools to optimize gains. This study applies several Machine Learning techniques to predict the trend (up, down and lateral) of the IBOVESPA index on a weekly interval between technical indicators (explanatory variables). Statistical parameters such as precision, accuracy, ROC curve and AUC were evaluated, highlighting the performance of the KNN, Random Forest and Logistic Regression models. It is concluded that Machine Learning techniques are effective in the investment sector, offering impressive results for the market and future research.
The Export Financing Program (PROEX) is a federal government instrument designed to support Brazilin export of goods and services through two modalities: National Treasury Financing and Interest Rate Support. This study evaluates the impact of PROEX on Brazilian exports between 2010 and 2021, adopting a novel approach that examines different sectors of the Brazilian export industry. The net effect of PROEX on each sector’s overall export capacity was analyzed, accounting for changes in firms’ market power within each sector. To address unobservable endogenous factors affecting PROEX's performance, an exogenous term was developed to reflect the economic attractiveness of Brazil's 20 main export markets. The econometric analysis indicates that a 10% increase in exports PROEX-supported exports, combined with a proportional demand shock in the destination countries, leads to an average increase of 21.3% in Brazilian sectoral exports.
This paper applies the subsystem approach to analyze the Machinery and Equipment (M&E) sector between 2000 and 2014, focusing on the use of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) as production inputs. The objective is twofold: to assess whether countries with higher market shares have intensified their integration of KIBS, and to understand recent transformations in the Brazilian M&E subsystem. The findings reveal that the M&E sector remains highly vertically integrated and only marginally linked to KIBS, with notable exceptions in the United States and Germany—where the incorporation of programming services has increased. In contrast, Brazil and China display persistently low levels of KIBS integration, raising concerns about technological upgrading and innovation capacity.
Between 1970-1973, against the backdrop of a brief period of détente in the Cold War, the government of Salvador Allende figured as a model case for the multilateral potential of international financial institutions—especially the IMF—and for the contradictions implied in the relationship between these institutions and the governments of developing countries. The Unidad Popular administration played a “two-tier game” in its position vis-à-vis the International Financial System and its institutions, aided in part by the geopolitical scenario and in part by Allende’s efforts to pursue a financial diplomacy that was both technical and committed to national interests.
Drawing on data on production structure and foreign trade, this article examines the continuity and intensification of the process of relative international deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy throughout the 2010s. The evidence points to a continued erosion of Brazil’s position in global manufacturing.
From the mid-1990s onward, microeconomic deregulation and liberalization policies that increased competition drove substantial growth in Brazil’s air transport market. Over this period, air transport services have increasingly reached beyond high-income households and capital-intensive industries, extending to lower-income groups and a wider range of productive sectors. This paper examines how air transport markets interact with Brazil’s productive structure. Both the open and the closed Input–Output models were employed, applying two complementary analytical techniques — Requirement Coefficients and the Field of Influence. Results indicate that public administration and services tend to exert greater effective pressures and influences on the demand for air passenger transport.
This article revisits the Plano de Metas (Goals Plan), examining the relationship established between Brazilian economic planning and foreign capital during the period 1956–1961. The analysis begins with the origins of economic planning in Brazil and proceeds to show how the achievement of the plan’s priority targets was closely linked to the process of capital internationalization. The results reveal that the “progress” experienced by Brazilian industry during that period stemmed largely from the action of foreign capital, which, once it penetrated the national economic sphere, was able to subordinate the implementation of the plan to its own interests.
This paper aims to measure the contribution of Brazilian industry to development by analyzing the process of structural transformation between 2000 and 2019. This measurement will be analyzed in three dimensions: (i) productivity, (ii) workers’ wages, and (iii) exports sophistication. The relationship between structural transformation and development is analyzed in comparison with the main middle-income countries. In addition to the existence of a process of deindustrialization, this paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that this process is associated with a reduction in the contribution of Brazilian industry to development along the lines proposed by Kaldor’s laws.
This paper analyzes the Family Health Strategy (FHS) using the total infant mortality rate (IMR) as the main variable and six causes related to primary health care. Panel data is used for Brazilian municipalities from 1998 to 2019, considering different regions and phases of the FHS. The results show that: the number of people registered in the FHS and the time of adherence to the program are fundamental factors in reducing IMR; the best effects of the FHS occurred in the Northeast region, and the period with the lowest reduction in IMR was from 2004 to 2008.
This paper uses a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) to identify macroeconomic shocks affecting real GDP and their implications for policymakers. The analysis reveals economic hysteresis in Brazil, with variables like the real exchange rate and net public sector debt exerting persistent effects on GDP. This underscores the importance of addressing structural factors. Fiscal adjustments emerge as vital for fostering confidence, supporting aggregate demand and highlighting the non-neutrality of fiscal policy. Structural limitations in the monetary transmission mechanism suggest that conventional monetary policy alone may be insufficient to achieve full employment, growth and financial stability.
This article examines the impact of economic conjunctural factors on suicide rates among Brazilian men and women over the last four decades. Data come from the Brazilian Ministry of Health - Mortality Information System (SIM) and cover the period from January 1979 to December 2022. We estimated monthly suicide rates among men and women by age group: up to 19 years old, 20 to 59 years old, and 60 and older, and we segregated the data according to family status. We used an econometric model to quantify the effects of economic conjuncture. Our findings show that economic conjunctural factors influence suicide rates, and that such an influence varies in terms of nature and degree.
This paper employs historical analysis, a structuralist approach, and a critical review to investigate the evolution of Brazilian economic policy from 1980 to 2020. It examines the transition from the developmentalist model to the neoliberal one, characterized by financialization, privatizations, and trade liberalization, and assesses how social advancements during PT governments coexisted with adherence to market demands. In three sections, it explores the II PND, the impact of neoliberalism, and the consolidation of orthodox economic policies that subordinated national interests to financial capital, perpetuating inequalities and weakening national sovereignty.
O artigo analisa a dinâmica dos preços dos imóveis residenciais no Brasil e em cinco capitais entre dezembro de 2013 e dezembro de 2023, utilizando o Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM). Os resultados sugerem que a atividade econômica não influencia os preços, indicando movimentação desprendida da economia. Os termos de troca têm impacto significativo, especialmente em Goiânia, devido à nova fronteira agrícola. O crédito direcionado é relevante no Nordeste, refletindo características socioeconômicas locais. Já o custo unitário básico de produção afeta cidades turísticas, onde a construção civil compete com o turismo pela força de trabalho tendenciando a dinâmica de preços.
After the downfall of developmentalism in the 1980s and the fading of this debate in Brazil, along with the social setbacks witnessed in the country over the last three decades, we perceive the importance of returning to discuss development in contemporary Brazil for the advancement of the history of Brazilian economic thought. The objective of this work, therefore, is to resume the debate on Brazilian underdevelopment, highlighting its political, cultural, and civilizational aspects. This text also aims to encourage the departure from the current state of inertia of Brazilian economic thought regarding its main guiding thread, underdevelopment.
This study examines Brazil’s shift from manufactured exports to commodities and evaluates bioeconomy as a strategy to counter reprimarization. Trade liberalization and the early 21st century commodity boom deepened Brazil’s dependence on primary products, increasing economic vulnerability. Using a literature review and descriptive analysis, the study concludes that bioeconomy-based industrialization can enhance value-added production, strengthen global value chain integration, and mitigate Dutch disease effects. This study contributes by linking structural economic transformation with sustainable reindustrialization, positioning bioeconomy as a viable path for Brazil’s economic resilience.
The objective of this article is to analyze the effect of public investment in health services (low and medium complexity) on the productivity of the single health system in cities of the interior of Bahia with 50,000 inhabitants. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Moments Method (GMM) are adopted as the empirical strategy. The results indicate that public health expenditure has no positive effect on the productivity of health services in the municipalities studied, with a different sign than expected, suggesting that the increase in public health expenditure is accompanied by an inefficient allocation of resources. In addition, the self-financing capacity of the municipalities was found to be more relevant to productivity, from which it can be concluded that the dynamics of municipal revenue allows better conditions for the implementation of health policies, especially those focused on primary care.
The aim of this study is to evaluate the targeting of the BNDES Emergency Program for the Reconstruction of Municipalities Affected by Natural Disasters (BNDES PER) in Brazilian municipalities. The impact of natural disasters on economic activity in the municipalities was estimated using the synthetic control methodology. The program's targeting was estimated using logistic regression and fixed effects methods, taking the estimated impact as the regressor. Looking at data from 2008 to 2017, it was found that natural disasters had a negative impact on the GDP per capita of most of the affected municipalities, with effects lasting up to three years after the events. On the other hand, the BNDES PER was able to reach the most intensely impacted municipalities in terms of GDP per capita and value added by services per capita.
