This study provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between trade and the environment in Singapore. It offers valuable insights into reconciling economic growth and environmental sustainability in this globally significant trade center and contributes significantly to policy formulation for trade-oriented economies. The paper examines empirical trends in trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, sectoral contributions (agriculture, industry and services), and renewable energy and CO₂ emissions in Singapore from 1991 to 2024. To consider both linear and non-linear dynamics, a multi-model approach is used which includes fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical co-integrating regression (CCR), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear (NARDL). The findings show that there is a positive link between total trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO₂ emissions. Meanwhile, trade in commodities, renewable energy and the services sector are linked to negative effects, with industry showing the greatest positive impact on emissions. These asymmetric effects suggest different responses to economic shocks, with policy implications focusing on the expanded application of renewable energy, greater regulation of energy-intensive industries and the strategic use of Singapore’s institutional strengths to promote sustainable trade practices. It is concluded that narrowing the gap between urbanization and trade structure is a strategic approach to achieving economic prosperity and meeting the goal of global sustainable development.
China underwent a demographic transition in the 20 th century, which led to a decrease in fertility below the level necessary for population replacement. China’s fertility has been below replacement level for a long time, with the total fertility coefficient at 2.1 births per woman. At present, fertility continues to decline despite the abandonment of the population control policy. The reduction in fertility and the postponement of childbirth reflect the fact that younger people are increasingly unwilling to have children. Identifying the factors that influence fertility rates is important for understanding ways to increase fertility. The paper examines the factors affecting the Chinese fertility rate over the period from 2001 to 2021 using econometric models and data from 31 Chinese provinces. The author’s main research interest is to investigate the ways in which housing affordability and other control variables determine the relationship between socio-economic factors and birth rates in China’s provinces. The findings reveal that affordability of housing has a significant negative impact on fertility rates and that home ownership becomes a heavy burden for young people when they consider having children.
This study investigates the interconnections between financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region between 1980 and 2023. Using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model alongside Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality tests, the research provides new insights into the dynamics of these variables. The study reveals a significant positive correlation between financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption. The key finding is the negative relationship between energy consumption and urbanization, while no significant linkage is found between energy consumption and industrialization. The Granger causality test reveals a unidirectional causal link between financial development, urbanization, and energy consumption, and a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. These findings contribute to existing literature by offering a more nuanced understanding of the region’s energy consumption dynamics compared to previous studies that have often presented inconclusive or context-specific results. This study extends previous research by examining the unique economic and energy challenges faced by the SADC countries, providing fresh evidence for policymakers focused on integrating financial sector development with sustainable energy policies. The study suggests that investing in renewable energy and expanding electricity access, especially in rural areas, could enhance both urbanization and financial sector growth, fostering broader economic development. The diagnostic checks affirm the robustness and reliability of the model, ensuring the validity of the findings.
When addressing the issue of global climate change, it is crucial to focus on the energy strategies of developing nations, which are predominantly aimed at fostering economic development. India, a major emerging economy and one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitting countries, represents a crucial case for climate change policy research. This study examines India’s prospects of reaching carbon neutrality by 2070 and the obstacles to achieving this goal by looking at main socio-economic and institutional factors. Although existing studies provide extensive qualitative analysis of the phenomena in question, the quantitative assessment of their external drivers remains limited. The study addresses this gap by conducting an econometric analysis of selected factors and by introducing middle-class income as a new explanatory variable for India’s long-term emission trends. Methodologically, the research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the dynamic impact of the selected factors on the intensity of India’s aggregate emissions. The proposed explanatory variables include: the share of forest cover; the share of renewable energy in electricity generation; and the income of the middle-class in India. The analysis shows that each of these factors has a significant impact on the dependent variable. This impact can be immediate or delayed, and it can vary in magnitude and direction. The influence of middle-class income dynamics seems to be the least consistent, while the expansion of renewable energy in electricity generation shows the most pronounced delayed effect. The findings reveal contradictions between national climate policies and socio-economic priorities. They highlight the challenge of balancing low-carbon goals with rapid economic growth and demographic change.
This study aims to explore the impact of the BRIC trade agreement on economic growth in South Africa over the period from 2009Q1 to 2023Q4, taking into consideration the BRIC agreements on promotion of trade and investment, and enhancement of economic growth and sustainable development. The study uses South African time-series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with hierarchical priors as it can deal with many problems in the data without exhausting degrees of freedom. It also handles dense parameterization by giving model coefficients a structure and making them as informative as possible. The results suggest that trade agreements have a positive impact on South Africa’s economy. They indicate that economic growth can be positively influenced by a 1% unexpected increase in imports, exports, and foreign direct investment from the BRIC partner countries. These findings mean that trade deals with the BRIC nations and the promotion of investment can significantly contribute to South Africa’s economic development. It has also been shown that SA’s government spending enhances growth and sustainable development. The positive impact of the BRICS partners’ imports, exports, and FDI on South African growth highlights the need for trade and investment integration. Policymakers should reduce trade barriers, enhance infrastructure, and improve the business environment to attract more FDI from the BRIC member countries. Strengthening trade agreements within BRICS can expand market access, boost industrial competitiveness, and increase technological transfer. Long-term strategies should create stable, open economies fostering innovation, employment, and sustainable growth.
This study investigates the dynamic links between key macroeconomic variables and the performance of stock market in India. With 420 monthly observations and a comprehensive econometric framework, the analysis attempts to assess the impact of Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EXRATE), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on BSE stock returns. Descriptive statistics reveal significant non-normality and volatility, justifying the use of GARCH models to capture market fluctuations. Granger causality and Johansen cointegration tests indicate a unidirectional and long-term influence of macroeconomic factors — particularly FDI, exchange rate, and GDP — on stock returns. Inflation and exchange rate have a positive impact, whereas FDI and GDP show negative associations, highlighting market sensitivity to capital flows and policy conditions. The GARCH (1,1) model accurately describes time-varying stock return volatility. The large ARCH and GARCH coefficients confirm the effects of previous shocks on volatility persistence. Impulse response functions support these conclusions, whereas error correction estimates emphasize the stock market’s role as a shock absorber for the economy. Diagnostics confirm the robustness and structural stability of the model, reflecting the post-liberalization resilience. The research underscores the significant and predominantly unilateral influence of macroeconomic variables on Indian stock markets. It highlights the critical role of a stable macroeconomic framework and investor sentiment in determining market trends.
This study examines the key economic, environmental and governance determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) in Pakistan, using a multidimensional framework to analyze their long- and short-term dynamics. Using annual data from 1990 to 2022 the research applies Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to assess the relationships between HDI and factors that may exert influence on its dynamics, including exports, remittances, military expenditure, carbon dioxide emissions, debt service, population growth, and women’s parliamentary representation. Its findings reveal that governance and demographic factors, particularly women’s representation in parliament and population growth, have significant positive impacts on the country’s HDI in the long run, highlighting the importance of inclusive governance and resource management. Conversely, economic variables such as exports and remittances appear to have negative long-term effects on the HDI, suggesting structural inefficiencies in Pakistan’s trade and remittance policies. Environmental degradation, represented by carbon dioxide emissions, poses a significant challenge with adverse effects on the HDI, in both the short and long term. Military expenditure demonstrates dual effect: while it supports the HDI in the long run by fostering stability, in the short run it diverts resources away from critical social investments. The study emphasizes the need for policy reforms to diversify exports, formalize remittance channels, and adopt sustainability-focused environmental strategies. To promote equitable development, it is essential to increase women’s representation in governance and balance the defense and social spending. This research contributes new insights by integrating economic, environmental, and governance dimensions into unified analytical framework tailored to Pakistan’s socioeconomic context and provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to prioritize sustainable and inclusive development initiatives in line with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
This paper analyses the asymmetric responses of manufacturing output to changes in exchange rates and bank credit in Nigeria. The results reveal significant countercyclical effects of exchange rate changes on manufacturing output. Bank credit to the private sector was the only predictor with procyclical effects on Nigeria’s manufacturing output. As these responses are often impacted by behavioural patterns, shifts in policy and economic fluctuations, the study employed the non-linear ARDL method alongside the Wald test, Quandt-Andrews and Zivot-Andrews tests. The results of the phase shift analysis show that in Nigeria, only private sector credit leads the manufacturing output cycle, while changes in the exchange rate, inflation and lending rates lag behind. Regardless of the timeframe, manufacturing output was adversely affected by positive and negative changes or variations in the exchange rate. Shifts in bank credit, whether positive or negative, had a positive and considerable effect on manufacturing production. The Wald test confirms the presence of asymmetry in the effects of the exchange rate and private credit on output. The Quandt-Andrews F-statistics for both the maximum likelihood ratio (LR) and Wald statistics, as well as the Zivot-Andrews intercept and trend test results, show that there were breakpoints in bank credit and exchange rate variations in different years, particularly in 2016 and 2020, which marked periods of economic recession, health pandemics, policy shifts, external shocks and macroeconomic instability, as measured by rising petrol pump prices. Neither model, with or without structural breaks, supports the conventional economic theory that devaluation leads to an expansion in output. This is attributed to the contractionary effect of naira depreciation in the context of significant foreign currency-denominated external debt. The negative output effect of naira devaluation in Nigeria was also explained by the low level of competition among domestic firms. In the short term, the results further account for the inflation-output trade-off in Nigeria’s manufacturing industry, while in the long term, the neutrality principle does not fully apply to Nigeria, whose financial market is still emerging, hampered by structural imbalances in the economy. To minimize arbitrage, the Nigerian government should implement financial policies capable of closing the gap between devaluation and appreciation of the naira exchange rates. Specifically, the monetary authorities should set credible inflation targets, and the rate of interest adjustment should align with these targets. This can be achieved by creating an autonomous central bank responsible for maintaining price stability. The research findings will be valuable to manufacturers, the financial sector and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owners, both in and outside Nigeria. SMEs and manufacturing industries can benefit from government funding, aid, or investment tax breaks. Such initiatives may take the form of reinvestment allowances, amortization allowances or cash-based grants.
Industrialization is as indispensable to the BRICS economies as they are to the global economy. Given the current focus on sustainable production and improvements in financial services, this study aims to analyze the impact of green finance and financial development on industrial growth, both individually and in interaction. Focusing on the five BRICS member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), the study covers the period from 2000 to 2023. Long-run estimates were obtained using panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators, and robustness checks were performed using the PCSE estimator and the Panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test. The results of the long-run estimators suggest that the combined effect of green finance and financial development significantly benefits industrial growth in the BRICS countries. So far, green finance has overlooked their industrial sectors but its true flourishing is only possible if it is integrated into financial development policies. The research uses three long-run panel estimators — panel FMOLS, DOLS and PCSE — to confirm and validate its results. The validity of the PCSE estimator is assessed in terms of cross-sectional dependence. The results will inform the industrial, financial, and environmental policies of the BRICS countries.
The study analyzes the transformation of the sectoral structure of foreign direct investment between Russia and China from 2014 to 2024 in the context of the «Turning to the East» policy and the changing dynamics of the global geopolitical situation. Using a comprehensive methodological approach, it carries out statistical analysis of the dynamic series of investment flows, structural analysis of the sectoral distribution of investment and qualitative analysis of institutional changes in investment cooperation. The empirical base consists of official statistical data, reports from expert analysis centres and materials provided by relevant government agencies in both countries. The results reveal the following dramatic shifts in the structure of Chinese FDI in the Russian economy: the shares of the extractive and agricultural sectors grew from $796.0 to $6215.3 million and from $2099.7 to $3256.4 million, respectively, while the share of manufacturing fell from 30% to 12.2%. A three-tier investment structure has emerged, dominated by the natural resources sector (over 40%). There has been a 54-fold increase in investment in high-tech sectors, although their share remains modest. The paper argues that the structural changes in investment cooperation were caused, first, by the Western sanctions against Russia after 2014, second, by China’s growing need for Russian energy resources and raw materials and, third, by the desire of Chinese investors to minimize risks by working with influential Russian elites. The cautious attitude of Chinese investors towards Russia’s high-tech sectors is explained by the risks of secondary sanctions, the technological gap between the countries and institutional barriers in Russia. Key obstacles include weak transport and logistics infrastructure in the Russian Far East, an opaque business climate, and the two countries’ diverging investment priorities. A new interaction model is emerging, prioritizing raw materials, agribusiness, and state-backed projects, while manufacturing is becoming less attractive.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has abundant natural resources and attracts substantial investment, especially from China, but sustainable growth remains limited. This study examines the persistent disconnect between resource wealth, foreign financing, and long-term economic performance in the region. Using 20 years of panel data from 31 SSA countries, we estimate seven econometric models — including fixed effects, dynamic panels, and instrumental variables (IV) — to assess the long-run impact of natural resource rents, Chinese investment, trade flows and foreign direct investment (FDI) on GDP growth. Exports are consistently associated with stronger economic growth. By contrast, Chinese investment does not show a robust effect across specifications. Natural resource rents have a weak or no correlation with growth, but become significant in the IV model, suggesting that their impact is mediated by institutional quality. Imports are negatively or insignificantly associated with growth until endogeneity is addressed, after which their effect turns positive indicating the importance of trade efficiency. FDI consistently correlates with lower growth, pointing to problems such as capital flight or extractive investment practices. This study challenges the assumption that Chinese finance and resource abundance are driving development in SSA. The findings highlight the critical role of effective governance, transparent resource management, and coherent trade and investment policies. Policymakers need to align external finance and natural resource use with institutional reforms to promote sustainable growth.
This study aims to investigate the impact of disaggregated renewable energy sources on life expectancy in the BRICS nations from 1990 to 2023, using linear, non-linear and non-parametric models. This research challenges long-held beliefs about the impact of renewable energy on human health. It reveals the intricate links between different energy sources and life expectancy in the BRICS countries. Based on the QPNARDL results, hydropower is found to harm life expectancy. Based on the PNARDL model, its impact varies across countries. Based on the SQR and PCSE models in the BRICS nations, however, it appears to have a positive impact on life expectancy. According to the QPNARDL, SQR and PCSE models, wind energy reduces life expectancy in BRICS nations. However, the PNARDL model shows that wind energy has a positive impact on life expectancy in Brazil and China, and a negative impact in India and Russia. Other Renewables, including bioenergy, boost life expectancy in the BRICS nations based on the SQR and PCSE models, while hurting life expectancy based on the QPNARDL and PNARDL models. The results suggest that the impact of renewable energy sources on life expectancy varies between countries and models. These findings have significant implications for policymakers managing the transition to renewable energy; they emphasise the importance of informed, evidence-based decision-making. The study recommends promoting hydropower, wind energy and other renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, in the BRICS countries to increase life expectancy.
As key actors in China’s transition to a green economy, companies are aligning their business strategies with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. However, there is still a lack of empirical evidence on how ESG performance impacts financial outcomes in emerging markets. This study seeks to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between ESG indicators and corporate financial performance using a panel dataset of Chinese A-share companies, listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, over the period from 2013 to 2022. Employing a two-way fixed-effects panel regression model, the analysis confirms a significant positive association between ESG performance and financial outcomes at the firm level. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive impact is more pronounced among NSOEs than SOEs. This differential impact is attributed to NSOEs’ greater operational flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions in implementing ESG strategies. The findings contribute to the growing body of literature on ESG, offering a large sample of context-specific evidence from China and highlighting ownership structure as a critical moderating factor. These results have practical implications for policymakers and investors seeking to promote sustainable economic growth through ESG-based practices in emerging markets.
This study examines the links between agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends in several global regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Central Europe and the Baltic States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. The study hypothesizes that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions such as infrastructure development and population dynamics. Using data from 2000 to 2022 from the World Bank database and Jamovi software, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, moderation analysis, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to explore regional disparities and identify challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. The results reveal significant regional disparities in electricity access, with regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa (31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36.9%) facing significant electrification challenges compared to the near-universal access in Europe and Central Asia. Agricultural land use is a key determinant of economic stability, with South Asia having the highest percentage of agricultural land (56.7%), a pattern consistent with its agrarian economy. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa faces significant constraints due to limited arable land (4.75%) and environmental challenges. The study also finds that regions such as Central Europe and the Baltics and East Asia and the Pacific have advanced agricultural practices and higher rates of urbanization, with less reliance on agriculture for economic stability. In addition, population growth shows a strong negative correlation with access to electricity (r = -0.834, p < 0.001), reflecting the demographic transition in developed countries where improvements in infrastructure coincide with lower fertility rates. Moderation analysis shows that in regions with low electricity access, such as sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth negatively affects GDP growth, but this effect is moderated by improvements in electricity access. Based on these findings, the study offers targeted recommendations for improving infrastructure, promoting sustainable agriculture, investing in human capital, and advancing inclusive urbanization strategies. These findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to address infrastructure deficits, reduce socioeconomic disparities, and overcome environmental constraints to achieve sustainable global development.
Over the past five years, the BRICS countries have actively worked to develop and implement joint measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to other environmental risks. However, achieving significant results in these areas is impossible without the use of modern economic tools to financially support environmental and climate initiatives. This study examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the development and implementation of economic policies that aim to maximize the environmental potential of the BRICS countries. The paper proposes solutions to create a unified methodology for assessing ecosystem services within the BRICS framework, reveals the potential for creating a joint market and development fund for the BRICS ecosystem services, and describes the most promising economic tools that can be used to attract investments and rationally implement environmental projects.
This paper examines the influence of financial sector reform on macroeconomic stability in 14 SSA countries by employing a traditional panel, dynamic panel framework, and causality tests on data from 2000 to 2021. It explores whether income groupings of the sampled countries in line with the World Bank classification matter for the outcomes of the analysis. The results suggest that financial reform policies can both induce and prevent economic instability. They increase instability in the lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries, as seen in the overall estimated dynamic panel models, but they reduce it in low-income economies. The static panel models produced similar results. It has also been shown that the rent from natural resources had uniformly damaging effects on the macroeconomic stability of all income groups in SSA, effectively confirming the “resource curse” thesis. Yet, the findings of the panel as a whole contradicted this, suggesting that revenue from natural resources can effectively play a role in stabilizing macroeconomic conditions. The results also suggest the existence of what can be called “a human capital-misery trap”, in which higher human capital development can lead to macroeconomic instability. Inflation was found to have a detrimental effect, and the impact of government interventions appeared to be mixed. This paper emphasizes the need for robust financial reforms and comprehensive policy measures in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), aiming to enhance the effectiveness, competitiveness, and stability of the financial sector and the broader economic landscape, which will require prudent management of natural resources.
This study examines pharmaceutical trade dynamics within the expanded BRICS10 grouping, comprising the original BRICS5 members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and five countries that joined in 2024–2025: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia (these five hereafter referred to as “BRICS Newcomers,” abbreviated as “Newcomers”). The 10 countries are collectively referred to as “BRICS10.” Focusing on 2012–2023, the study explores whether trade patterns within BRICS5, among Newcomers, between the two groups, and across BRICS10 reveal structural asymmetries or early integration signals. A 12-year country-level panel was built using United Nations Comtrade HS Code 30 data on pharmaceutical products. Missing values for Iran and Russia were filled using reclassified mirror statistics. Key indicators included compound annual growth rates (CAGR), trade balances, intra- and inter-group trade shares, and 1 080 dyad-level Trade Intensity Index (TII) scores. Data processing and visualization were conducted using R. In 2023, BRICS10 accounted for 9.7% of global pharmaceutical imports and 4.7% of exports. Intra-bloc trade was limited and uneven: 64.4% of the dyads were under-traded, with a TII of less than 1, and only 3.1% reached very high intensity (TII ≥ 15). India was the sole net exporter, while most members remained dependent on imports. Trade spikes driven by the pandemic were short-lived. This is the first time-series analysis of pharmaceutical trade between BRICS10 countries at the dyad level. It reveals structural imbalances and under-trading on a large scale, providing new evidence to support policies aimed at promoting regional pharmaceutical integration and enhancing health system resilience through South–South cooperation.
This study investigates debt-to-pay-debt syndrome in Uganda from 1980 to 2022 using a quantitative approach with ARIMA modelling to evaluate public debt sustainability. Balanced time series data from the World Bank is analysed with public debt (% of GDP) as the dependent variable, incorporating autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Parameter estimation is conducted using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), with diagnostic tests ensuring model robustness. Results show that the AR(1) coefficient (0.350489), is positive and statistically significant, meaning that 35% of the current year’s debt is used to service the previous year’s debt. This finding confirms the persistence of the debt-to-pay-debt cycle in Uganda. The estimated ARIMA (1, 1, 11) model is both covariance stationary and invertible, making it reliable for forecasting public debt trends over the next decade. Forecasts suggest that the debt-to-pay-debt pattern will continue unless corrective measures are taken. The study recommends implementing comprehensive debt management policies to reduce reliance on new borrowing. This includes enforcing stricter fiscal rules and promoting revenue diversification through emerging sectors such as digital economies, agricultural value addition, mineral resources, and oil and gas.
This paper examines the involvement of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) in the global value chains (GVCs) between 2000 and 2014. It focuses on domestic value-added exports and vertical specialization. We use WIOD tables to assess the position of these countries in GVCs and a decomposition of their trade in terms of value added. China exhibits substantial growth in all indicators, whereas the other countries’ results appear to be mixed. The study also considers the economies of Mexico and South Korea, highlighting Mexico’s declining participation in GVCs in contrast to the steady growth of South Korea’s involvement. To ensure sustained long-term economic growth, the BRICS countries and other emerging economies should create a common growth agenda and increase their participation in global value chains. The paper provides insights into the dynamics of trade and vertical specialization and thus contributes to better understanding of economic relations between the BRICS countries and other emerging economies.
This paper contributes to the literature on the policy trilemma by evaluating potential policy combinations for the original BRICS within the framework of the Impossible Trinity. It also introduces a novel modelling approach that defines a boundary for the linear combination of variables associated with the policy trilemma. The findings reveal that the trilemma emerges from the interplay of these three policy dimensions. Given the global influence of the BRICS countries, the results suggest that, if they maintain a fixed exchange rate system, they will likely have to sacrifice either free capital movement or independence from monetary policy. This loss of flexibility could be particularly detrimental, considering their significant international influence and their role as major recipients of capital flows for trade and financial transactions. Consequently, the optimal policy combination for BRICS is free capital flow, monetary independence, and a flexible exchange rate.
