Serbia is experiencing severe demographic challenges alongside significant environmental pressures. Both components of population dynamics-natural increase and migration balance-have contributed to a declining population trend. Simultaneously, Serbia is expected to be heavily impacted by climate change, particularly in terms of rising average temperatures. Using cluster analysis, this study identifies homogeneous areas within Serbia based on population dynamics and climate parameters. Employing 10 key variables, Serbian municipalities were classified into four distinct clusters. The capital, Belgrade, stands out as a 'heat island' with the highest immigration rates, while municipalities in Eastern, Southeastern, and partially Western Serbia-predominantly hilly and mountainous regions-exhibit more favorable climatic conditions but suffer from severe demographic decline (depopulation, negative migration balance, and negative natural increase). This analysis raises an essential question for future research: Will the intensification of climate change and the worsening environmental conditions in the capital alter migration patterns, directing populations toward regions characterized by lower environmental stress and reduced exposure to climate extremes in Serbia? This study establishes a strong foundation for further research within the POPENVIROS project, which aims to explore the relationship between population dynamics and climate change in Serbia. Identifying homogeneous regions-one of the primary objectives of this paper-will facilitate the mapping of specific areas that require deeper investigation into the complex interactions between demographic trends and climate change.
The main goal of all spatial planning activities is to improve the quality of life of the population in the planned territory. The population, through its size, structure, and dynamics, determines the needs for infrastructure, public services, housing stock, economic activities, etc. In the context of spatial planning, the population appears both as a subject and as an object of planning. The segment relating to the population is an integral part of spatial plans at all territorial levels and represents a part of the broader field that also encompasses the settlement network and public services. However, an analysis of national, regional, and local plans in the Republic of Serbia shows significant differences in the way this segment is treated, as well as the limited applicability of certain analyses and projections, which indicates a lack of methodological and terminological consistency. The subject of this paper is the examination of how this segment of spatial planning is addressed, both through analysis and assessment of the current state, defined objectives and planned solutions, as well as the proposed implementation measures, and also its alignment with other segments of the plan. The primary aim of the paper is to, based on the results of the conducted analysis, draw conclusions and provide recommendations for improving spatial planning practice in the population segment. The main conclusion is that the population segment must be understood as a prerequisite and an important determinant for forming optimal planning proposals and in this sense, it must precede the processing of other segments of the plan and be maximally aligned with the current demographic data.
This paper aims to examine, based on the results of an empirical quantitative study, the influence of various factors on women's decisions regarding the number of children they will have. The research was conducted through a survey carried out between 2020 and 2023 at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade. In analyzing the data, we focused on socio-demographic characteristics and the family and social context, which-according to our theoretical framework-are assumed to influence respondents' decisions to have one or more children. To examine the correlation of these factors, in addition to variable relationship tests, we also used a binary logistic regression model. The analysis showed that significant predictors included the respondent's age, marital status, age at the birth of the first child, and the perceived importance of kindergartens in balancing work and parenting. Predictors that were theoretically assumed to be significant but were not confirmed as such include the respondent's material status, level of education, employment status, and whether she received help during the child-rearing period. However, correlation testing indicated that the number of hours of support provided by older generations is correlated with decisions about family size. Therefore, it can be concluded that, in addition to individual characteristics, external factors-especially support available to young mothers-play an essential role in family planning.
The paper addresses daily migration systems in East Herzegovina, employing a model for determination of daily urban systems, focusing on daily population migrations as key indicators. Industrialization and urbanization have contributed to an increase in daily migrations, where part of the population works in non-agricultural sectors without permanently relocating to cities. This has led to a decrease in both permanent and daily migrations from rural areas to cities, accompanied by an aging rural population. Daily migrations entail workers, pupils, and students who regularly commute for work and school. The analysis covered migration zones of both city and municipal centers of East Herzegovina, using the data on workforce and pupil daily migrations (representative sample). Two zones of impact of city centers have been identified, each with different daily migration intensities: the intensive impact zone with more than 65% daily migrants and the weak impact zone with less than 35% daily migrants. The data on daily migrations in East Herzegovina suggest that the daily migration system is very poor. The exception is the municipality of Gacko, where workforce migrations from demographically sustainable settlements in the lower parts of the municipality towards the Gacko mine and power plant have been recorded. In the region, depopulation of rural areas is noticeable, along with the phenomenon of demographically depleted settlements and intensive migrations towards urban centers. With an exception of Nevesinje, the secondary migration system is poorly developed due to the small number of settlements with pronounced functional capacities. In the city of Trebinje and the municipalities of Bileća, Gacko, and Nevesinje, two zones of different daily migration intensities have been registered. On the other hand, in the municipalities of Ljubinje, Berkovići, and East Mostar, such zones have not been recorded due to small population and poor functional capacities of central settlements. This study helps us understand spatial and socioeconomic aspects of daily migrations in East Herzegovina and their impact on the local urban and rural systems.
Early reports indicated that Serbia was among the best-performing European countries in dealing with COVID-19 health issues based on relatively small COVID-19 mortality. This success can be partly attributed to the government's rapid response and implementation of restrictive measures to curb the spread of the virus. It can also be noted that the high level of solidarity among citizens contributed to the effective containment of the pandemic, with many adhering to experts' prescribed measures and recommendations. Serbia has become an example of good practice in the fight against COVID-19, resulting in positive assessments by international organizations and experts. However, Mortality from the virus alone is insufficient to describe the pandemic's health effects, unlike excess mortality from all causes. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality in Serbia during 2020-2022 and to compare estimated mortality with the reported COVID-19 deaths. Excess was calculated using a negative binomial regression with historical 2015-2019 data. Estimation provides a P-score as a percentage difference between the reported and expected number of deaths. Mortality excess in Serbia was 15,437 in 2020 and 35,836 in 2021, with 224 and 524 per 100,000 population rates and P-scores of 15% and 36%, respectively. Three prominent waves of excess were observed: the winter of 2020 and the spring and last quarter of 2021. The highest monthly excess was noticed in December 2020, with a rate of 113 per 100,000 and a P-score of 84%. The ratios of reported COVID-19 deaths to calculated excess mortality were 20% in 2020 and 27% in 2021. The excess mortality dramatically increases with age. Serbia faced high levels of mortality excess in 2020 and 2021, particularly among older people. During 2022, there was a decrease in mortality trends compared to pandemic years. That year 109,203 died with a rate of 1,639 per 100,000. The excess in 2022 was 7733 (116 per 100,000) with a P-score of 8%.
This study investigates internal population migration following the catastrophic May 2014 flood in Serbia, aiming to address the extent to which migration functioned as an adaptive strategy and to identify which population groups were more prone to migrate. Based on available quantitative data from secondary sources, population outmigration was analyzed across seven municipalities: Obrenovac and Lazarevac from the Belgrade District, three municipalities from the Mačva District (Krupanj, Ljubovija, and Mali Zvornik), one municipality from the Kolubara District (Osečina), and the municipality of Pećinci from the Srem District. Data on the number of emigrants and immigrants in the selected municipalities were obtained from demographic statistics relying on migration records (internal migrations). A time series of emigration data was constructed for the period 2002-2022 to provide insights into two decades of trends in emigration rates, immigration rates, and migration balance, as well as to identify any trend changes after 2014. The second part of the analysis focused on the demographic structure of the local population with regard to their differing capacities to adapt to the consequences of the natural disaster to which they were exposed. We posited that a higher share of emigrants relative to the total population in the districts/republic was an effect of the natural disaster, resulting in a specific concentration of emigrant populations within the municipality, particularly within its subgroups. The results demonstrated that the catastrophic 2014 flood influenced emigration trends in flood-affected municipalities in two ways: on one hand, it contributed to an increase in outmigration rates, interpreted as a spontaneous population response to the risk they faced; on the other hand, it reduced emigration by limiting the resources necessary for migration. During the flood year, increased emigration involved all population groups, with a somewhat more pronounced rise in migration among women and pensioners. Over time, however, elevated emigration returned to regular age patterns. The concentration of emigrant populations in flooded municipalities was especially pronounced when compared to the national level of the Republic of Serbia, and heterogeneous population responses were evident across all indicators used in the study. Findings indicated that the choice of migration as an adaptive strategy was significantly shaped by the (in)security of household incomes, with migrants more frequently originating from economically developed municipalities less reliant on agriculture as a primary source of income. In the context of very limited public in situ adaptation and state assistance, which largely consisted of partial financial compensation for damages, emigration as an adaptation strategy should be understood as a dynamic category with potential to contribute to economic development. Adaptation strategies should evolve toward more transformative approaches rather than merely attempting to preserve existing practices.
Seasonal variations in mortality are well documented, indicating a higher death rate during the winter compared with other periods of the year. Despite the evidence that vulnerability to winter weather has decreased, a significant number of preventable deaths still occur during the colder period of the year. Assessment of measures for excess winter mortality (EWM) is important for the public health system to be improved, but also for policymakers and stakeholders to be informed about current as well as future mortality-related climate change issues. This paper explores trends in EWM in Serbia and examines the validity of the methods of estimating EWM using monthly mortality data for the period 2000-2021. In order to estimate excess death using different measures, three methods were applied. First method (M1) uses the winter period as December to March and compare with the average of the non-winter period (preceding: August-November and following: April-July); second method (M2) defines winter as December to March against summer months (preceding: August and September, and following: June and July); and the third method (M3) set six months from October to March as a winter against the six-month non-winter period (preceding: August and September, and following: April to July). All three methods confirmed a higher number of deaths during the winter, and highest excess winter mortality was observed using the M3. This method classifies months in two wide seasons and determines winter as a six-month period from October to March, which is arbitrary but also well recognized in literature and generally used by public health services. The summer period in M3 is also casual and adjusted to the latitude. Compared with M3, M2 gives slightly lower excess winter mortality, and this measure also classifies months in two too seasons, but excludes October, November, April and May. A pronounced disparity between the gender was also observed, with women recording higher excess mortality in most seasons, while during pandemic years the situation changes in favor of a higher excess mortality of the male population. The first measure, M1, estimates the lowest number of excess deaths, but considering climate characteristics in Serbia, this method uses the most suitable approach to assess winter mortality.
With more than half the world's population living in cities, the 21st century is known as the urban century. However, in an urbanized world that goes hand in hand with a growing world population, a "silent" process of urban shrinkage has occurred for some time. In the first decades after the Second World War, the decline of cities was initially limited to the old urbanized regions of the world. In the late 20th and early 21st century, it spread to developing countries and has become a global phenomenon. The Serbian urban population grew from the 1960s to the 1980s, and stagnating in the 1990s. Complex spatial-demographic and socio-economic changes during the post-socialist transition have determined the demographic development of urban settlements in Serbia towards shrinkage. At the beginning of the 21st century, the urban population in Serbia has slightly decreased and the disproportions in population development between urban settlements have deepened, reinforcing the previously existing urban polarization. In the last decade, a negative average annual rate of change in the urban population in Serbia was recorded. As a result, more than 80% of urban settlements in Serbia are affected by urban shrinkage. The paper analyses the development of the total population in 167 urban settlements in Serbia from 1961 to 2022. The paper aims to identify trends in population dynamics in Serbia, focusing on the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in the 21st century.
Censuses in Serbia often incorporate new methodological solutions, making it increasingly challenging to track population trends over time. Understanding methodological innovations in censuses and aligning census data with vital statistics are prerequisites for any scientific analysis and interpretation of population dynamics. Methodologically sound data are particularly important for population estimates, which are typically generated after a census (referred to as postcensal estimates). The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia primarily produces postcensal estimates, while intercensal estimates (estimates made between two censuses) are used internally and are not published or used to update previously released data. This paper aims to highlight specific methodological discrepancies in the data used to calculate key demographic indicators and to open a discussion on the necessity of producing intercensal estimates. The findings reveal the extent to which the population was overestimated in official figures due to the omission of international migration data during the preparation of these estimates. This omission has impacted the accuracy of demographic and various socio-economic indicators that rely on population data for calculation. Intercensal estimates not only allow for the correction of some of these indicators but also provide a foundation for estimating the volume of emigration from Serbia during the intercensus period.
Population aging is one of the dominant social processes that intensified at the beginning of the 21st century. Its omnipresence and implications, particularly in the economic and social spheres of society, justify the notion of creating a concept of a "aging society". Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the current level of the aging process by analyzing demographic indicators, primarily based on census data. The study analyzes census data on the structure of households composed of older individuals, whether they are single-person or multi-person households, in order to identify socially vulnerable categories that require organized and systemic support from society. Special attention is given to the economic activity of older adults living alone in households, to address the issue of securing basic means of living and material deprivation among the elderly. From the perspective of active aging and securing additional income, there is a significant need for some form of engagement for the elderly. The study also addresses issues of active aging, measured by a relevant active aging index, as well as questions of longevity and years spent in health, quantitatively described by indicators of life expectancy and healthy life years. The multiple implications of aging necessitate an adequate state approach in crafting population and social policies. In searching for solutions to the increasing problem of demographic aging, there is a shift in perspective towards active aging and a new understanding of the process of demographic aging through a prospective approach to old age. The study provides an overview of state responses through the Strategy for Active and Healthy Aging in Serbia, as well as examples of aging strategies at the local level.
The spatial patterns of internal migration trace general socio-economic processes and thus represent one of the most important indicators of the diffusion of development within the territory. At the same time, internal migration flows represent a feedback loop for the increase of development disproportions. Considering that one of the main strategic objectives of spatial development in Serbia at all territorial levels (national, regional and local) is a more balanced distribution of the population, a broader and deeper insight into the extent and flows of internal migration can make an important contribution to spatial planning. Against this background, the study aims to identify various sources of statistical data and possible methodological solutions for conducting an analysis of internal migration in Serbia. The study utilises three different types of data provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, including: Population Census (migration characteristics of the population), Internal Migration statistics (immigration and emigration data based on changes of residence) and birth and death statistics (combined with population census data). The research results provide information on the advantages and disadvantages of using the above-mentioned data sources, e.g. data quality, availability, level of detail, etc. In addition, a comparative analysis carried out with all three data sources revealed on specific examples possible discrepancies in the results.
In urban studies, there is a strong link between socioeconomic status and housing conditions. Belgrade's housing stock is diverse, ranging from recently constructed buildings to pre-World War II structures, socialist-era settlements, and informal constructions on the city's outskirts. The post-socialist period is characterized by the transition to market mechanisms, an increase in the share of private home ownership and intensive housing construction as well as demographic pressure. These factors have significantly influenced the housing stock and residential segregation in Belgrade. An analysis of education and occupation data from the first two decades of this period reveals a trend where socioeconomic status tends to decline from the city centre to the periphery. Despite the fundamental changes in the housing sector, this study suggests that although residential segregation did not increase drastically in the first decades of the post-socialist period, a growing trend is evident.
Depopulation and the emptying of settlements are a global process, which is largely represented in our country as well. Demographic changes in the structure of the population are more pronounced and intense in the settlements, which are far from the city centers and are located at higher altitudes. Depopulation, which is strongly present in the area of Southern Serbia, has the effect that some settlements are almost empty or have an older population and a very small share of young people. The aim of this paper is to present the population dynamics of the settlements of the City of Prokuplje in relation to their altitude in the period 1991-2022. For this reason, research was conducted based on the distribution of settlements in the City of Prokuplje into three groups according to altitude. The findings indicate a noticeable difference in the population dynamics of three groups of settlements and show to what extent the negative indicators of the number of inhabitants in the settlements are related to the altitude based on comparative and correlation analysis. The results provide insight into the state of demographic development and could help to create a more complete demographic picture of the City of Prokuplje.
The article deals with the complex dynamics of depopulation in rural areas in Serbia. Although the topic has been very topical in recent decades and research has long identified the causes and consequences of depopulation in numerous regions in Europe, there seems to be no systematic approach to the implementation of policies for the management of abandoned areas. We started from already known factors contributing to depopulation, including economic, social and environmental dimensions. Based on previous research, historical trends and a statistical database, we attempted to represent depopulation as a spatial process that has its own size, structure and consequences, using a new, quantitative methodology for grouping abandoned areas into clusters as basic units of dispersal of depopulated areas. The aim of the work was to quantitatively determine the size and structure of the depopulated area in Serbia after the 2022 census. The study opened up new fields of research for the future use of depopulated space, but also offered certain solutions for policy makers, researchers and municipalities struggling with the challenges of depopulation. The results of the work show the existence of 47 abandoned clusters in 10 administrative regions of Serbia, which is 17 more than in the 2011 census. Further homogenization and consolidation of clusters was found in the statistical regions: Toplička, Zaječarska, Jablanička, Pirotska and Raška region, i.e. an increase in the total depopulated area as well as its spatial expansion towards the north of the country.
The population sex and age structure is of exceptional importance, because of the remarkable demographic and economic consequences it leaves behind, so, its detailed analysis allows us to estimate the present and future potential of the structure's progressive tendencies, as well as the differences existing within the territory we want to analyze. Also, the sex and age population structures are extremely important for the future demographic and economic development of the country. These basic biological structures, in addition to the population's natural change, are conditioned by the modern general, social, and economic flows, i.e., the demographic transition, which spatially redistributes the population and thereby determines the characteristics of the population's sex and age structure in different areas. This paper aims to analyze the changes in the population sex and age structure in the Republic of North Macedonia according to the data from the two censuses conducted in 2002, and 2021 on a national and regional level and to point out the changes that have occurred during this period and their connection and relatedness to the demographic, social, economic and overall development.
The intensive reduction of the labor contingent and the continuous process of demographic ageing of the labor force raises the issue of human capital development and the need to increase the level of demographic resources. For decades, Serbia has been facing negative demographic tendencies, such as long-time negative natural increase, population emigration and disruptions in demographic structures, which has caused the creation of divergent poles of development. The purpose of this research is to evaluate and more accurately analyze spatial differences in the value of the indicators of demographic development of the municipalities of Belgrade region during the period 2011 - 2022. The methodological framework of the paper is a synthetic indicator, index of demographic resources, that considers the interdependence of natural components of demographic development, age structure of the population and educational characteristics as a demographic element of human resource development. The interdependence of these components indicates the vitality of the studied space in the present time and the demographic potential in the future. The results showed significant polarization between the central and peri-urban municipalities of Belgrade. The higher values of the studied index central municipalities owe to the high shares of the educated population and students, while the values of the demographic index among municipalities are quite uniform.
Premature mortality, defined as death occurring before a predetermined chronological age, is a significant public health challenge in Serbia, compounded by an aging population, high rates of non-communicable diseases, and healthcare system challenges. This study introduces a novel indicator, the Median Age of Years of Life Lost (MeAYPLL), to assess the age distribution of premature mortality in Serbia and selected European Union (EU) countries during the pre-pandemic period (2000-2019). The findings reveal that Serbia is among the European countries with the highest rates of premature mortality, similar to other former socialist countries. However, the age distribution of premature deaths varies considerably across countries, influenced by factors such as the cause of death and population age structure. The results show that Serbia, in the period between 2017 and 2019, lost 539,591.3 years of potential life annually with Serbian MeAYPLL being 57.62 years in this period. The study underscores the importance of considering multiple dimensions of premature mortality, including its intensity, age structure, and geographical variations, for designing effective public health interventions. It also highlights the limitations of the MeAYPLL indicator, recommending its use in conjunction with other measures of premature mortality intensity for a comprehensive assessment.
In the modern world, migration is an extremely complex and dynamic process that has a great impact on the demographic, economic and political development of a country. Monitoring migration trends and phenomena is crucial for their understanding, especially when it is taken into account that the number of economic migrants in developed countries has increased significantly in the last few years. Migrants today shape the political and economic system of many countries and thus change the structure of the world geopolitical order. Contemporary authors speak of geopolitics as the geography of politics, the spatial dimension of politics that is motivated by the concrete interests of various state and non-state actors. One of the key factors of geopolitics is the population, since it is used to achieve the most effective and firmest possession of the territory. Through this paper, an approach based on economic migrants and how they shape contemporary geopolitics will be addressed. The initial idea will be discussed from the theoretical point of view of economic migration, and further elaborated through the point of view of contemporary geopolitics and economic migration. Also, the idea about the relationship between demographic transition and geopolitics will be discussed. Finally, through the analysis of demopolitics, an insight into how contemporary geopolitics is developing and in which direction it could develop in the future will be given. The aim of this paper is to present as best as possible the interdependence of geopolitical decisions and economic migration trends.
In the last twenty years, the spatial distribution of the predominant economic activities has undergone changes that do not correspond to traditional development models. The Srem region was characterized by an economic structure based on a spatially evenly distributed agriculture and industry, traditionally located in the urban centers. According to the modern development concept, which is based on foreign direct investment, significant structural changes are necessary, leading to functional changes in the settlement system and a change in population concentration. For this reason, in the period 2002-2011, a functional change was observed in the settlements of the Srem region, followed by a change in the prevailing sectoral structures. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the spatial differentiation of settlements in the Srem region according to population concentration and to explain the dynamics of structural change in economic activities.
The research of thirty-year changes in the mortality of the population of Serbia (1990-2021) is given through two basic indicators of mortality. Using the decompose method to calculated the effect of population aging on the difference between crude mortality rates, as well as the contributions of specific mortality rates and leading causes of death in the changes in life expectancy. The crude death rate shows that the intensity of dying in Serbia is very high. The pandemic contributed to record values in the last two years. Overall, in the period 1990-2019, the negative contribution of the age structure is twice as intense as the positive effect of age-specific mortality rates. Aging is more intense in the female population, which explains the greater increase in the crude death rate in women. The data show that the importance of demographic aging has always been more pronounced. The main characteristic in the observed time interval is that mortality decreases at all ages and that all age groups had a positive effect on life expectancy, as well as that men and women in Serbia have a different pattern of decreasing mortality by age. The most significant effect on life expectancy was the reduction of infant mortality (a fifth of the total contribution), a common feature of the male and female populations. In other age groups, men have more pronounced contributions up to the age of 50, and women in older cohorts. Due to higher mortality rates, the space for improving mortality is greater in young and middle-aged men than in women, so the positive effects are more pronounced at these ages. The largest number of leading causes of death burdens the population of Serbia less now than three decades earlier. Cardiovascular diseases, as the leading cause of death, contributed the most to positive changes in mortality. The biggest effect of life expectancy is the reduction of mortality rates due to diseases of the circulatory system in the 65-79 year old population. Observed by gender, the effect is greater in the female population, where cardiovascular diseases contribute to the extension of life expectancy by as much as 67% or by 2.4 years, while in the male population the importance of cardiovascular diseases in the extension of life expectancy is lower and amounts to 42% or by 1.9 years. Tumors, as the second most common cause of death in Serbia, contribute negatively to those aged 50 and over and positively to younger age groups. The overall effect on life expectancy is positive, and mortality rates in men decline until the age of 60. In women, rates increase from age 50 or older, and of all causes of death, only tumors have an overall negative effect on life expectancy growth. Among the other causes, the importance of violent deaths and their positive effect should be singled out, due to the reduction of mortality rates at all ages, especially among the younger population. Positive changes in the age of 15-49 years in the male population contribute to an increase in life expectancy of even 1 year. In the female population, a positive contribution is also present at all ages, but the effect is significantly lower. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the highest increase in mortality in Serbia in the last 70 years. Mortality increased by 14% in the first year of the pandemic, and by 34% in the second, compared to the 2017-2019 average. The crude death rate has increased tremendously and for men in 2020 it is 18.0‰, and in 2021 it will show a maximum value of 21 deaths per 1,000 persons. For women, this mortality rate is 15.9‰ and 19.0‰ (in 2020 and 2021, respectively). Changes compared to the values from 2019, for both sexes, are solely the result of the increase in mortality by age, while changes in the distribution of the population by age had a negligible effect in this period. The last analyzed year (2021) brings a drop in life expectancy for men of as much as 3.4 years compared to the period before the pandemic. Women in Serbia have a slightly smaller decline in life expectancy in this period of 2.9 years.
